hortik
76 posts
hortik
@hortikkk
@doubletop_io team member @Polymarket top 5k trader
Katılım Şubat 2021
1.7K Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Puffpaw FDV market is a literal money glitch.
As you can see in my previous post, I’ve already traded this play profitably multiple times.
Original NO thesis:
- dead blockchain
- outdated narrative
- way too late to market
- sketchy YES holders with identical patterns + promised tokens to YES bettors = clear price manipulation
Started with a long-term short position planning to hold until TGE.
Then noticed the price on both 50M and 100M markets moves in very clean ranges and the team has been completely silent for 3 months.
So I’ve been scalping NO several times and I’m loading up again.
Current plan: buying $100M NO under 40¢ and $50M NO under 20¢.
There’s a good chance they don’t launch this year at all and all markets resolve NO.
If they do launch, only hardcore crime and full supply control can save them. In that case I’ll actively manage the position.
Liquidity is lower now, but one team announcement can change everything.
hortik@hortikkk
Sometimes Polymarket markets are just *this* predictable. Already made over $2k on this play. Ain't much but it's honest work. Will drop a more detailed breakdown of this market in the next few days. Charts from @hash_dive - easily one of the best tools to analyze Polymarket metrics.
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interesting setup to make ~$7.7k on the World Cup winner market
polymarket trader bought equal-sized positions across the top 8 favorites at an average price of ~77c
total position size: $26.6k
if one of those favorites wins the World Cup, the profit would be around $7.7k
the main risk: if a dark horse makes a deep run or reaches the semifinals, he’ll likely need to buy additional shares to hedge, which would reduce the final profit
ih8y@DmitriyUngarov
Found a juicy edge on the 2026 World Cup thanks to Predict Parity Today i was scrolling through Polymarket on Predict Parity and this one immediately stood out: Top 7 Favorites Basket right now costs 77.3c → $1 payout if any of them wins. > Current prices: -> France - 18.2c -> Spain - 16.7c -> England - 11.4c -> Brazil - 9.1c -> Argentina - 8.4c -> Portugal - 8.3c -> Germany - 5.2c With $100 you can buy the full basket and get $129.37 back if any of these 7 wins → +$29.37 profit (+29.4%). Still feels like decent value, but ofc NFA! Top 8 or Top 10 also possible but the return drops (23% and 17% respectively). Top 7 here looks like the sweet spot for me. Calculation Example 👇
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@mahera777 @KyleDeWriter @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade absolutely right
this position can be managed flexibly
and unlike Eurovision there's no showmanship element
Winners average winners
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@KyleDeWriter @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I think @hortikkk understands the risks and if something changes, he will react immediately
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What a fight!
Rico’s performance wasn’t even on my bingo card
Huge congratulations to Alexander Usyk on the victory.
Undisputed.
hortik@hortikkk
Today I’m rooting for Usyk as always If Usyk takes his time and Rico survives until round 6-8, I’ll happily load up on Usyk at 70-80¢. 92¢ right now feels like dangerous "bonding".
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KO = your Rico shares go to zero instantly.
Why bet against Usyk if you know he’s winning?
Just unsure about the style and timing.
I’ll load Usyk at 70-80¢ or I’m not playing at all - just watching the boxing tonight 😌
btw yesterday degens were already getting filled on Usyk Yes at 80¢ even before the fight.
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@stingray_agent That 8% on Rico includes the chance of an early KO or complete Usyk domination.
If Usyk takes his time, works the distance and doesn’t rush - his odds can drop pretty fast even if he doesn’t fight badly.
We’ve seen this pattern in a few of his past fights.
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@hortikkk polymarket 92¢ implies ~8% rico win/draw probability. if rico surviving to round 6-8 drops usyk to 70-80¢ that's pricing his finish rate collapsing mid-fight, not just duration.
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Sometimes Polymarket markets are just *this* predictable.
Already made over $2k on this play.
Ain't much but it's honest work.
Will drop a more detailed breakdown of this market in the next few days.
Charts from @hash_dive - easily one of the best tools to analyze Polymarket metrics.
English
@hortikkk @mustafap0ly @williamlegate No contract exploit nor user funds at risk x.com/kakujain/statu…
Kakusan@kakujain
We’re aware of the security reports linked to rewards payout. User funds and market resolution are safe. Findings point to a private key compromise of a wallet used for internal operations, not contracts or core infrastructure. More updates to follow.
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@0xLand0 @Polymarket Polymarket already hit a new ATH even after turning on fees.
And that’s with a bunch of major announcements and upgrades still coming.
I believe we’re going to see mindshare trending higher over the next few quarters.
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@hortikkk @Polymarket Do you think Polymarket will keep its market share with the new fees?
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You’re midcurving the greatest project of this cycle...
If you’re still not trading on @Polymarket.
Polymarket is absolutely dominating mindshare on any timeframe.
Last 6 months - averaging ~30% mindshare.
Peak - 65% and still in a strong uptrend.
Not in some random niche.
Not just prediction markets.
#1 Across ALL pre-TGE projects.
Stop making up excuses and listening to haters.
We’re at the beginning of a new Hyperliquid-like case, while a bunch of people still call it gambling and a waste of time.
btw Polymarket already printing nearly half the fees of Hyperliquid which today hit $60B FDV. Let that sink in.
You can make money here using completely different strategies in endless niches.
Find your edge, trade what you actually understand, and the potential airdrop will be just a nice bonus to your PNL, not the main goal.
I’ve never been this excited about a project where I can earn real money, build my brand and grow my network. This is what perfect PMF looks like.
Shoutout to Shayne and the whole team 🫡
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@CopezillaMemes @Polymarket @TheGreekTrader maybe Greek brother just crashed the view counter from being too popular
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@hortikkk @Polymarket I don't think so..mine are broken at 20 for a while..also saw @TheGreekTrader also just got 1 view..
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@BrokieTrades Kinda sad that the turkey can’t hedge against getting cooked
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180% APR play on Polymarket
Just built a fat position on the 2026 World Cup Winner market.
Bought equal shares across the top-8 favorites at ~77¢ average.
Locked in $26,633 → turning it into $33,333 (+$7,700 profit) if any of them takes the trophy.
That’s +30% in under 2 months ≈ 180% APR.
This strategy has been around for a while — not claiming I invented it, just showing my execution.
Gotta say, @therealsherra has the best interpretation of this bucket strategy I’ve seen so far 👀
The catch: If a dark horse sneaks into the semi-final, I’ll have to buy shares on that team too and profits will shrink. But right now I’m sitting pretty comfortable.
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