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Hugo

@hugonbag

Montevideo Katılım Ocak 2013
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump. Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current levels. As we saw in April 2025 and March 2026, President Trump is highly attentive to the 4.50% level on the 10Y Note Yield, which we previously labeled as our "policy pivot" point. At the current pace, we could see 4.50%+ within a matter of days. Meanwhile, US oil prices are above $108/barrel, gas prices are up another +5% today, and 30Y mortgage rates are at 6.50%+. The bond market will soon become the center of attention. Stay ahead of the trend.
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Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
This goes way beyond India. Australia, Canada, and nearly the entire West are struggling to look beyond conventional warfare. Countries that are spending fortunes on large warships today may be investing heavily in something increasingly risky. I believe smaller vessels with hybrid propulsion and three times the range will gain significant ground, while affordable solid-state battery-powered submarines and UUVs are poised to dominate naval warfare. We are already heading toward a future where autonomous drones will operate in the skies, going far beyond reconnaissance. They will engage in high-altitude air combat, striking fighter jets from above with missiles that have significantly longer ranges than those available today. We are witnessing the emergence of a entirely new kind of warfare, but most countries have not yet realized it. They are still trapped in old, conventional thinking.
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney

India’s Military Is Preparing for the Wrong War India’s military strategy remains geared toward fighting the next big conventional war, even as its two closely aligned regional adversaries, China and Pakistan, prosecute asymmetric campaigns against it. China’s stealthy land grabs in Ladakh in 2020 — achieved without firing a single shot — offer a telling example. America’s war in Iran has again underscored the new logic of warfare: advantage no longer rests solely with the technologically superior, but with the strategically adaptive. Despite unleashing overwhelming force, the U.S. failed to convert its tactical successes into a tangible strategic outcome in the face of Iran’s asymmetric reprisals. This is a lesson India can ill afford to ignore, given its continued emphasis on importing big-ticket platforms. It has consistently ranked among the world’s largest arms importers. New Delhi is now advancing a major Rafale deal with France worth around $40 billion — far exceeding its cumulative investment this century in indigenous missile and drone development. The Iran war, much like the conflict in Ukraine, highlights that low-cost drones and missiles are now decisive, transformative weapons of deterrence and reprisal, often outpacing traditional high-end systems in strategic effect. India’s costly obsession with conventional war is blinding it to a simple reality: big-ticket weapons no longer deliver commensurate strategic returns. openthemagazine.com/world/war-on-i…

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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
This is the only metric that matters in determining who is "winning" and "losing" the war. If this chart looks like this for another couple weeks, physics + financial leverage make it a certainty that global equity and bond markets will be smoking craters.
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John Robb
John Robb@johnrobb·
That's the model. Human oriented AI autonomy.
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
China will gladly buy all the silver you have to sell: Shanghai premium hits mindblowing $29/oz, up 50% in one day
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb@nntaleb·
MACRO In a long financial career, I've focused on derivatives (convexity) & reverse tail risk. Only handful of large "macro" trades, w/rule ONLY when signal is very very high. Gold/Silver (current position, held for a while, added over time) Short Long bonds during ZIRP
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VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
Guys, nobody knows what’s going on except the people that know. So just enjoy the ride. The only thing I can say that I feel confident is there’s definitely an event that hasn’t been announced that the inside people know about. Just enjoy the ride it’s bigger than us. I’ll do a recap tomorrow morning.
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
After this rally in gold, the market value of US official gold as a % of foreign-held USTs is up to 14%. Assuming no further rise in foreign held USTs, gold would have to rise: 50% to get to 1989 levels 3x to get to LT average levels 9x to hit 1980 levels
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Gary Bohm
Gary Bohm@GaryBohm5·
Today was risk-off. In a typical risk-off event of the past, capital would have flooded into U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. Today, that model broke. While Treasuries did catch a bid initially, the rising yields tell a story of underlying weakness. The real story was the deafening roar of capital stampeding into the one asset class that cannot be debased, sanctioned, or defaulted on: precious metals. Flight to safety has a new address!
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VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
The spread remains at $10 in a rowing market, which tells you that the higher price is getting squeezed by the lower price he refuses to sell. Chinese restriction of exports meant nothing because they have no exports to sell in Silver. It’s the fact that we’re not letting them get their silver from Latin America as we fucking told you all.But hey, far beat it from us to be conceited about it. We’re screwing China out of every commodity that they need to balance what they’re screwing us out of. Release the hounds. There is no financial arbitrage. There is no physical arbitrage. There’s only two hemispheres that aren’t talking anymore.
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Gold Ventures 🟡
Gold Ventures 🟡@TheLastDegree·
1000% GAINS: Why Junior Miners Are the Next "GameStop" for Wall Street] Good video on why positioning in silver smallcaps now can be the trade of your lifetime youtu.be/GWHlmk3X5oc?si… via @YouTube
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Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta·
Silver is experiencing a moment of profound significance, with major implications for the history of hard money, fiat currency debasement, and — most critically — inflation.   We’re seeing one of the most volatile monetary assets approach a breakout above its previous highs, potentially setting the stage for a historic move.   This is what explosive price discovery looks like in action, in my view.   I don’t have a crystal ball, and neither do any of you, but my conviction is based on the inevitability of financial repression driven by the massive macroeconomic imbalances we face today.   Silver could be on the cusp of one of its most important runs in history — and the most striking part is that I believe we may only be getting started.   It’s worth remembering that, even today, silver still trades roughly 80% below its 1980 peak when adjusted for CPI — a metric we all know underestimates real inflation.   This is not the time to underestimate what’s happening in silver, in my view.
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John Robb
John Robb@johnrobb·
Sounds like a variant of the "data ownership proposal" that I pitched in testimony to the Senate a few years back. Your data (work product) you produce (from specialized work to social media posts to the feedback you give AIs) is the fuel that makes AIs possible (from initial training to refinement). You should own it. Right now, it's being strip mined for free and in time, will make you redundant. Tracking and attaching a value to each individual contribution is impossible. It should be pooled, managed by professionals with a fiduciary duty to the contributors, and you should earn a royalty from its use.
Eric Weinstein@ericweinstein

Someone trying to interpret my call for Coasian markets before the AI megashock to the labor makets arrives. UBI will be a disaster. We need markets and agency. We trained our coming replacements. We need to be able to monetize that training. Coase is the answer. Not handouts.

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Championship Rounds
Championship Rounds@ChampRDS·
Alex Pereira calls out Jon Jones at the Colosseum 👀 “Jon Jones. White House. Chama.” (via @AlexPereiraUFC)
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Ciudad Viva
Ciudad Viva@tvciudadviva·
Sindicatos industriales realizan concentración en Torre Ejecutiva 🗣️JP conversa con Daniel Dárdano, presidente de UNTMRA y Diego Zipitria, integrante de la industria química.
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Championship Rounds
Championship Rounds@ChampRDS·
Charles Oliveira breaks down why he lost to Ilia Topuria and what he could've done better "I was stupid... what was I thinking? I'll take him down and put my hands on him. I did throw my hands. But he landed first. So I was stupid." (via IG / limaricardo1)
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸 INTERVIEW: “CHINA IS DRAINING LONDON’S GOLD MARKET, PRESSURING THE DOLLAR SYSTEM” @LukeGromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “China is using what has always been the dollar’s Achilles heel, the unallocated gold market in London. If demand for gold rises, there are two options. You can let the price rise and allow the market to balance naturally, or you can expand paper gold claims to meet that demand without releasing physical gold. For decades, London has mostly done the latter. But now, as China settles more trade in yuan and gold, it’s draining physical supply from London. Eventually, policymakers in the U.S. and UK will have to decide how much gold they’re willing to let go before they allow prices to rise. That decision could reshape global monetary power.”
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: THE NEXT WORLD WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH GOLD Central banks are buying gold at record speed. China is trading oil in yuan. And the U.S. dollar’s grip on the world is starting to slip. @LukeGromen breaks down how the balance of power is shifting from paper to metal. * How China and Russia are using gold to undermine the dollar * Why America’s debt addiction is forcing the world to look for a plan B * How the yuan-gold trade network could upend global finance * Why Europe’s energy policies are pushing it toward decline * And what happens when the U.S. and China lock into economic warfare that no one can win Gromen says this is not just about money or markets. It is about control, and the side that owns the gold writes the rules. 03:08 – Central Banks Are Buying Gold Fast, but why now? 06:09 – Why gold is the “anti-dollar” and how it protects wealth 09:15 – Lessons from the 1970s: What China learned from U.S. gold mistakes 13:19 – The dollar vs. the yuan: The real global currency war 16:00 – Gold rising as the new global reserve 20:36 – Is the U.S. secretly importing massive amounts of gold? 23:55 – What happens if the dollar loses its throne? 30:36 – Why this could trigger the biggest boom since WW2 36:04 – China’s economy: crisis or calm? 43:56 – Why decoupling means more inflation, not less 49:01 – The rare earths trap: how China cornered the U.S. 55:09 – How China quietly captured corporate America 59:05 – Can a multipolar world actually work? 01:00:15 – Is Europe committing economic suicide? 01:05:14 – Closing thoughts: Can rational leadership return?

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Mauricio Vera🇦🇷
Mauricio Vera🇦🇷@maurici0vera·
¿Con quién se puede hablar del fenómeno OVNI y su historia que no esté demasiado chapa? No quiero saber nada sobre los annunaki o los grises, sino más bien hablar sobre los casos que todavía no encuentran explicación, los intentos humanos por comunicarnos en el espacio et al(?
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