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hyperview.xyz

hyperview.xyz

@hyperviewxyz

Making the future readable, tradable, and interactive. Hyperview what the world thinks comes next.

Katılım Kasım 2024
30 Takip Edilen7.6K Takipçiler
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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
Introducing Hyperview Forecasts 🔮 Prediction markets contain massive amounts of information. But probabilities are fragmented across many outcomes. Forecast aggregates these probabilities into a single expected outcome. Main use cases for now include: 🔹Price markets → expected price 🔹Event markets → expected timeline
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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
Markets have just priced in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April and June following Jerome Powell’s speech. This @Polymarket event has jumped by +18.0% over the past 24 hours.
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MICKAËL
MICKAËL@mickael_btc·
Longing $CL here. Just used @hyperviewxyz to get a forecast of where it will settle by the end of March. Using the wisdom of the crowd has never been easier.
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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

Global oil markets are out of control: As the Iran War closes week 3, US oil prices are trading at $97/barrel, up +76% since December. Meanwhile, physical oil prices in Oman are up to a RECORD $167/barrel, a +72% PREMIUM. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨 US recession probability is close to 50% according to Moody’s, and could cross that threshold if oil prices remain elevated. @Polymarket odds tell a different story, with only a ~31% chance of a recession this year. Since the Iran war began in late February, oil has surged sharply, briefly approaching $100–$120 per barrel depending on the benchmark. Historically, nearly every US recession since World War II, except COVID, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices
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Coin Bureau@coinbureau

🚨BREAKING: US recession probability is about to cross 50%. Since the Iran War began, oil has surged ~60% from $70 to nearly $120 a barrel in under 3 weeks. Moody's expects the next update to push recession odds past 50%, a level not seen outside an active recession. That's a +15 point surge in just 6 months. The chart below tells you everything you need to know. Every single recession since WW2, except COVID, was preceded by an oil spike. History is rhyming.

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MICKAËL
MICKAËL@mickael_btc·
claude code is down. i am jobless now
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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨This Chart Shows When Confidence Comes Back to Hormuz The chart on the left only includes vessels with AIS turned on which is the ship’s GPS It clearly shows that traffic is almost at a standstill even though some ships may already be crossing the strait with AIS switched off. The key signal to watch is when ships start crossing again. According to @Polymarket there is a 70% chance that between 0 and 10 ships per week will pass through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of March.
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Coin Bureau@coinbureau

🔥THIS CHART SHOWS WHEN SHIPS FEEL SAFE AGAIN It only tracks ships with AIS (ship’s GPS) turned on. Some vessels may already be passing through, but with AIS switched off. When ships start sailing through with AIS on again, it signals real confidence at the Strait of Hormuz.

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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨 Taiwan reports a massive presence of Chinese military aircraft around the island. This comes two days after major naval drills, during which nearly 2,000 Chinese vessels reportedly formed two 400 km barriers in the East China Sea. Despite the tensions, prediction markets barely reacted, moving only +1% in the past 24 hours. The probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains low at just 11% this year.
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hyperview.xyz retweetledi
PredictionIndex.xyz
PredictionIndex.xyz@predictionindex·
Weekly Prediction Index update is live! This week’s batch focuses on data, infra, analytics, interfaces, and market quality, with stronger tooling, clearer context, and safer participation. Time to dive into the Week 10 release👇 – @marketmotionxyz → unified market data graph for prediction markets – @polyatlasx → weather analytics dashboard for market participants – @predexon → API + infra layer for prediction markets – @huntonraptor → AI tools for internet markets across crypto, Kalshi, and Polymarket – @yososocial → community driven prediction markets for short-cycle, region-specific trading – @sybil_pm → prediction market infra designed to reward better information, not faster bots - @OpticOdds → real-time odds + data infra for sports betting and fantasy – @USPredict → real-time odds tracker across prediction markets - @hyperviewxyz → interface for reading what markets think comes next – PredictResponsibly.com → public standard for safer prediction markets Explore the new listings and pick your fav → predictionindex.xyz
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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨🇺🇸 Odds of the 30-year mortgage rate reaching 6.3% by the end of 2026 has surged by more than 37%, and here’s the potential impact on markets. First, the 30-year mortgage rate is highly correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield. The market tied to the 10-year Treasury yield has just jumped 12%, now pricing a 23% probability that it reaches 4.4%, up from 4.2% previously. A rise in the 30-year mortgage rate could put downward pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Housing represents roughly 15–20% of the U.S. economy, so if mortgage rates rise, monthly payments increase significantly, real estate transactions slow down, and new housing construction declines. Overall, this reduces liquidity in the economy, as financial conditions become tighter.
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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨🇮🇷 Iran has announced its conditions for a potential ceasefire with the US and Israel. However, prediction markets did not move, suggesting traders don’t expect these demands to be accepted in the near term. According to Polymarket, markets still imply no ceasefire before early May. Iran’s stated requirements: 1) Recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” 2) Payment of reparations to Iran 3) Firm international guarantees against future aggression As long as no ceasefire is signed, markets will likely remain more volatile, with oil prices staying relatively elevated.
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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Iran announces their requirements for a potential ceasefire with the US and Israel. Requirements include: 1. “Recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights” 2. “Iran receives a payment of reparations” 3. “Firm international guarantees against future aggression”

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hyperview.xyz
hyperview.xyz@hyperviewxyz·
🚨 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has just been released and came in line with expectations. CPI (YoY): 2.4% (est. 2.4%, prev. 2.4%) Core CPI (YoY): 2.5% (est. 2.5%, prev. 2.5%) According to @Polymarket, US annual inflation in March is expected to be higher than 2.8%.
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Keşfet

@MaxMartelo @Polymarket @mickael_btc @FranceCryptos @predictionindex @marketmotionxyz @polyatlasx @predexon