Sheldon "blackhawk" McAlister
5.9K posts
Sheldon "blackhawk" McAlister
@iSkyzzle
TAMU Class of '14 | Sigma Tao Delta | 2011 District Golf Runner Up | #Michelobe | Family Company Board Member | #CowboyNation | Intramural Hoops Bronze Medalist
Katılım Nisan 2019
398 Takip Edilen148 Takipçiler
I ran out of ways to rephrase so I’m going to elevate to the top level. In my opinion he is pretending not to understand the question, which is perfectly sensible. What do you all think
Uubzu v4@uubzu
All blue voters who believe in their moral superiority must grapple with the QT or they are disconnected from base reality Would love to hear from the blue poison eaters who remain enthusiastic when they will die unless 999/1000 strangers also choose blue
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@Ancientswords @cominginhot01 @acidiclemon2 @quantum_geoff @publicinte It’s a long thread but I walk through why the “killing billions of people” argument doesn’t work with this guy
x.com/acidiclemon2/s…
Umbraphile@acidiclemon2
@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Anyone who survived would've pressed red and we can't arrest everyone, so no.
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@cominginhot01 @acidiclemon2 @iSkyzzle @quantum_geoff @publicinte Yes, at the cost of killing billions. If you believe everyone will vote red you're delusional. More than 50% vote red a lot of people die. Less than 50% vote blue a lot of people die. Voting red directly adds to the probability of people dieing. Voting blue adds to survival.
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I get really annoyed by people saying that the “rational” or “game theory” answer is to vote red here. This a coordination problem: there are two optimal outcomes: everyone votes red or >50% vote blue. People dying is (I hope) not an optimal outcome even for the red voters
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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She lowkey got the same face as Sketch
Hoop Central@TheHoopCentral
Nickeil Alexander-Walker finding out he won MIP. 👏🙌 (via @ATLHawks)
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte So if you are culpable, then you would be arrested for the deaths of 1.6 billion people, but you aren't the one who killed them, yet you are getting charged with it anyway?
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte 1. I have part collective culpability for being a human and living by human values, yes. If human values were different such that everyone was 100% selfless all the time, then everyone would press blue even at 99% threshold.
2. Ultimately, yes.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte So these things are true then?
1. You are responsible for their deaths.
2. It actually something else that is condemning them to die, not you.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte In pressing the red button at an 80% threshold, I do accept the shared culpability of blue-pushers dying.
That doesn't mean I'm condemning them do that fate - whoever or whatever force set up this experiment did by setting the threshold at 80% and in 1 minutes time.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte I misread the no I don't as the condemnation, my bad on that.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Answered right here.
x.com/acidiclemon2/s…
Umbraphile@acidiclemon2
@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No, I don't. I would strongly consider picking blue, vis-a-vis not wanting to live in a subsequently collapsing society, but that's getting a bit too hypothetical.
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@PJ_Dumont @GodotIsW8ing4U What is the point of getting on the track in the first place?
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@GodotIsW8ing4U Then Hell no am I stepping on that track. I don't trust the entire world to be as selfless. If this was like a first world country city, then maybe I would consider it.
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There is a runaway trolley careening down a railroad track. Nobody is on the track and it’s not going to hit anything, but if more than 50% of the population stand on the track, it will derail harmlessly, otherwise it will kill them all. Do you stand on the track?
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte You also did not answer my question: In your 80%, 1 minute decision making scenario where you chose red, do you think the number of people who pick blue is exactly 0 out of 8.3 billion?
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte x.com/acidiclemon2/s…
Right here in this tweet, you specifically rejected the idea that your decision did not contribute to the deaths of the potential 20% of people that may have pressed blue.
Umbraphile@acidiclemon2
@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No, I didn't condemn potentially up to 1.66 billion people to death. Because my theory of mind is that when the threshold is 80% and the vote is in 1 minute (so ~no co-ordination), blue certainly won't prevail and there's no point throwing my life away additionally.
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You are refusing to stand behind your own statements and the consequences of your actions. I don't care what you would "strongly consider" you already pressed the red button.
How is that you told me "Consequence of red button is "don't kill yourself, but with a chance of shared culpability for the deaths of many innocents"."
But now that YOU are pressing the red button, the same consequence does not apply?
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No, I don't.
I would strongly consider picking blue, vis-a-vis not wanting to live in a subsequently collapsing society, but that's getting a bit too hypothetical.
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@recmo @ChrisPacia If you are interested, I have been talking to someone else about this subject. He seems to be incapable of understanding consequences but we have gone a lot further in depth than this thread.
x.com/iSkyzzle/statu…
Sheldon "blackhawk" McAlister@iSkyzzle
@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Yes you did, whether that potential is realize or not is irrelevant. In your 80%, 1 minute decision making scenario where you chose red, do you think the number of people who pick blue is exactly 0 out of 8.3 billion?
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@iSkyzzle @ChrisPacia It also depends on audience, twitter seems less cooperative than general audience (but both obviously small biased samples, plus nothings really at stake)
x.com/davidshor/stat…
David Shor@davidshor
We asked this to a large sample of nationally representative Americans - blue wins by a 3:1 margin!
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If you vote differently in these scenarios congrats you are irrational.
Time to do some introspection and figure out why you respond emotionally to things rather than logically.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Yes you did, whether that potential is realize or not is irrelevant.
In your 80%, 1 minute decision making scenario where you chose red, do you think the number of people who pick blue is exactly 0 out of 8.3 billion?
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No, I didn't condemn potentially up to 1.66 billion people to death. Because my theory of mind is that when the threshold is 80% and the vote is in 1 minute (so ~no co-ordination), blue certainly won't prevail and there's no point throwing my life away additionally.
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That is interesting, I still think that the majority picks red.
The starving and the poor in Africa/ third world countries do not, to me, seem like people that have anything on their mind except the guarantee of their survival.
On the contrary, there may be places like North Korea that overwhelmingly vote blue based on the propoganda around Kim Jong Un being a man of their people and they would then vote blue to ensure that he lives based on the chance that he might also pick blue.
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Okay, then I will repeat myself for the 5th time now that we have an actual answer that you can't get out of.
In that situation where you vote red, you just condemned potentially up to 1.66 billion people to death.
Why is it then okay to switch to red? In your own words, it's a death sentence and would lead to the collapse of civilization.
You are then accepting, in your own terms, that the "Consequence of red button is "don't kill yourself, but with a chance of shared culpability for the deaths of many innocents"."
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Incorrect. If we take the text as written, change threshold to 80%, and add "The vote happens 1 minute from now for everyone", I vote red.
If we add "The vote happens 1 year from now for everyone" I vote blue.
That's what I mean by "depends on the details".
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You are moving the goalposts every single time to avoid acknowledging that your reasoning is wrong. It doesn't actually matter what %. If you wouldn't press blue up to even up to a threshhold of 99.999999%, then you are then, at some point, okay with potentially sacrificing people.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No, I said I *probably* pick red, based on the text.
To actually implement it, the text is insufficient. Does the vote take place in 1 minute, 1 hour, 1 week, 1 year? How much can we coordinate first?
Without knowing those details, I can't give you certainty beyond what I have.
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It doesn't matter what your theory of mind is. You know that at 80% you pick red. At that number you are okay with a maximum of 20% of the world potentially dying, (20% of the current population of 8.3 billion people would be 1.66 billion people, or more than the population of china)
Thats hundred of millions of childred, disabled or otherwise unlucky people that you are okay with sacrificing.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte At identical text, when the threshold is 80% or higher, I *probably* press red.
But what you seem to not be getting, is that my choice is extrinsically linked to the specific text and my theory of mind of how others (eg, parents with children) will vote based on that text.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Okay now its identical to the original question, except its 90%.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Then I don't know if I would pick red or blue.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Okay, text is identical to the original question, except now its 65%.
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@iSkyzzle @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte No it doesn't. My limit on the text as given is 60%.
If this were to actually happen in reality we'd need more details about how it is actually carried out and enforced. I need to know those details before I know at what threshold I would switch to red.
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@acidiclemon2 @cominginhot01 @Ancientswords @quantum_geoff @publicinte Yes, so it stands to reason that if 60% is your stated limit, that you would not then extend that limit to 65%...
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@I_is_like_stuff @LordTash2 @ChrisPacia That is fair. I respect you and I appreciate that we can actually debate about this.
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@iSkyzzle @LordTash2 @ChrisPacia Because I'm in another self-sacrificing field, the medical. Politics aside, within my country I believe there's no need for military forces aside from self-defense. If the call to action arises to protect my home. So be it. But we live in a time of peace, what need is a sword?
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