Andy ∞ ICStats

@tomhfh @ChrisO_wiki @_HelenDale @SteveBakerFRSA Is there no way he can be ousted anyway? Trying to get a better job publicly while Mayor should be a sacking offence otherwise he's just having his cake and eating it. Politicians are such self serving slime balls.

@ChrisO_wiki @_HelenDale @SteveBakerFRSA He wouldn’t have to resign the mayoralty until after he wins the seat afaik

Labour best case scenario: Andy somehow wins in Makerfield. Wes does a deal with Andy and Ange. Starmer agrees transition timetable. Andy coronation. Labour worst case scenario: Andy loses in Makerfield. Keir blamed. Post by election bloodletting more severe than post-locals. Wes finally declares. Competitive contest: Wes, Miliband, Rayner all tear chunks out of each other. Everyone is damaged and party sinks deeper in the polls. Farage laughs all the way to Downing Street.

Not to be biased, but the objective data backs it up: it's retail that's been doing the selling. The market simply hasn't assigned value to ICP yet, and some longer-term holders have lost patience after several years, which is fair. The market rewards different things, otherwise it would be impossible to explain how memecoins reach market caps dozens of times higher than projects shipping real infrastructure. And we're not talking about performance here; that's where you could fire back with "but other tokens aren't as inflationary." We're talking market cap, where supply is already baked into the math. What's actually happening on the adoption side: - Pakistan Digital Authority signed an MoU with DFINITY for a sovereign Pakistan Subnet: national-scale AI, in-country data, a national messenger app, 1,500 Caffeine licenses - Switzerland deployed a sovereign subnet weeks earlier - DFINITY × UNDP partnership on Universal Trusted Credentials, piloting in Cambodia with plans to scale to 10 countries What that means for value: -Sovereign cloud deployments = multi-million-dollar compute lock-in per nation -Each sovereign subnet = perpetual, non-speculative ICP burn -UN-level legitimization is something ETH and SOL simply don't have at the nation-state layer Honest comparison: - Solana: zero sovereign deployments - Ethereum: zero significant sovereign deployments - ICP: multiple confirmed sovereign deployments and pilots This is exactly the kind of traction the crypto market isn't pricing in, because it reads as "boring infrastructure" vs. "memecoin pump." But it's also exactly what institutional capital looks at. Now the honest counterpoint, because pretending otherwise would be cope: Ethereum Classic had the same tech as ETH and stayed near $20 while ETH ran to $4,500. Bitcoin Cash shared BTC's foundation and never recovered. Litecoin was supposed to be "silver to Bitcoin's gold" and has been stagnant for years! Fundamentals don't automatically translate into price. Narrative, timing, and market structure matter. But the asymmetry on ICP, actual sovereign-scale adoption that no other L1 has, is the kind of thing that, if it ever does get priced, doesn't get priced gradually.

@bonnie7729 @TRobinsonNewEra @PeterMcCormack @narindertweets What's wrong with being rum and in your 50s? You've no idea what us 'oldies' get up to 🤣

@TRobinsonNewEra @PeterMcCormack @narindertweets Isn't she in her 50s? Pack it in Grandma 😅🤢 put your knickers on, and have some self-respect!

Well that was fun @narindertweets

@malcolm_reavell @The_Scarlet_Pi They'll just go somewhere else to make a return. Clueless!

@The_Scarlet_Pi If the govt stopped selling bonds the markets would soon come begging.

No, Neil, you are the one displaying economic illiteracy of Trussian proportions. The UK govt creates and spends money into existence. It sells bonds to drain excess reserves its prior spending created. Not a penny is “borrowed”. The markets need bonds. Govt doesn’t need markets.

@marymyhope2019 @GeraldAnd4729 Yep, we need someone of her calibre right now. Potential wartime leader material, of which lawyers most definitely are not.

@icstats @GeraldAnd4729 Her turnaround in such a short time is very encouraging

Kemi Badenoch nailing Keir Starmer. Labour MPs looking at their shoes.

@marymyhope2019 @GeraldAnd4729 I'm 'older' and think she's an awesome orator who still has some way before she hits her peak. Don't care if I sound like a fanboy.

@GeraldAnd4729 Interesting the number of older men pissing their pants about this. lol

@DogPaxman @hazel_haywood @lewis_goodall Yep.

@hazel_haywood @lewis_goodall It’s eccentric and interesting. The quality won’t improve with them gone. Replacing them with political flops from the commons as favours.

Kemi Badenoch notes that this is the first parliamentary session in history without the hereditary peers. She laments it. She's right to lament, but for the wrong reason. It's a political and democratic embarrassment it's taken this long.

@GamerApocalymon @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant My country? Why are you commenting about a country that isn't yours and you know nothing about?? Also FYI I'm 57 and lived through the Thatcher years. You are a silly person.

@icstats @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant I'm sorry that your country has declined into poverty and irrelevance, but getting mad at history books and teachers won't make Britain stop sucking - and neither will doubling down on the same failed policies.

BREAKING: Top investors warn Britain faces a Liz Truss-style bond market revolt if Labour ousts Keir Starmer Michael Pfister, FX strategist at Commerzbank: “The goal of a balanced budget is likely to falter should a less fiscally conservative candidate take over. And in recent years, we have repeatedly seen situations where the British government bond markets came under pressure and the pound followed suit. This time, the situation is unlikely to be any different.” Cathal Kennedy, senior UK economist at RBC Capital Markets: “I think this morning there is a 2022 feel toward this, with the Prime Minister carrying on as normal while all indications show he has lost his authority in the party.” Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management Ltd: “The market is now pricing almost four rate hikes for the UK which it can’t withstand. Whoever replaces Starmer will not be able to borrow more money via gilts regardless of what they say.” Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies: “Any replacement would likely be left-leaning and be negative for the long end of the curve and the currency. We maintain our steepeners and short position in sterling.” Jordan Rochester and Evelyne Gomez at Mizuho: “We’ve been looking for 10 year UK gilts to sell off towards 5.15% by year end for quite some time, but this political drama accelerates the timeline, and we could see a move toward 5.20% until the political situation is settled and/or 5.35% in extreme stress.” Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen: “Gilts are increasingly behaving like a real-time referendum on fiscal and political credibility, aggravated by the recent move higher in oil prices.” Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish: “Even if Starmer resigns the political uncertainty is unlikely to end as internal rivalry within the Labour Party ramps up. To stabilize the gilt market the government may have to commit to the fiscal rules and the only candidate seemingly prepared to do that is Wes Streeting.” James Athey, fund manager at Marlborough Investment Management Ltd: “The last thing that Gilts needed was weakness in the US treasury market. Now we’ve got potential for the ceasefire to collapse, the US doing some fiscal expansion all on top of the utter domestic shambles that is UK politics.”

@GamerApocalymon @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant Selective memory, great job your teacher!

@icstats @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant 47 years of decline and counting, great job Britain!

Dim because a successful wedge has been driven between the old and young. Another division based on 'identity'. And one that we are greatly poorer by because of its corrosive effect on the cohesion of society. Also I agree the triple lock is unaffordable but so is also much of welfare in general. I'm 57 btw.

@icstats @bluesbreaker2 @DPJHodges Dim because you don't agree? I'm 55, I'm under no illusions about getting old but that doesn't make it a good thing that so much of our politics is aimed at keeping pensioners happy. The pension is by far the biggest welfare benefit drain, the triple lock is unsustainable.

People are underestimating the significance of today's statement from the affiliated unions. For them to do this on the day of a Labour King's Speech is incredible. He who pays the piper...

@prgres @bluesbreaker2 @DPJHodges Dim take. You'll be old soon. Amazing how quick it creeps up on you.

@bluesbreaker2 @DPJHodges If it tips the balance away from parties relentlessly having to woo pensioners, then it might not be such a bad thing. Triple lock anyone?

@prospero1960 @MadCarew @FUDdaily Agree, but the country....

@MadCarew @FUDdaily Failing that, I hope Starmer stays on. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

Essentially, Labour has put Britain into a political stasis for the next three years. There's nothing in their policy cupboard that won't make matters worse, so their only option is to do nothing much. That's as good a reason as any for retaining Starmer. He is the perfect man for the job. A bland, visionless functionary will go through the motions until it's time to call an election. Too bad the rest of us just have to watch the country burn - just because Labour is too dishonourable to relinquish power they have no idea how to use.

@CrowsOutside @stodders79 @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant Blah blah. Point me to one country that implements the thinking you are espousing and that is doing well. The country has to have the same or similar structural makeup as the UK. ?

@stodders79 @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant Technically and legally they cannot do any such thing without explicit instructions from HMT. The BoE doesn't and can't "fire those printers in unlimited mode"; you fundamentally misunderstand how govt fiscal ops actually work.

@GamerApocalymon @LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant Harking back to Thatcher, jeez grow up ffs.

@LDNCryptoClub @LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant I'd assume a crypto account of all things would know how to adjust for inflation... Britain had a higher tax rate in real terms before Thatcher wrecked everything

@LizWebsterSBF @alexwickham @Vert_Galant 'unelected' this is your bias talking. The markets are doing what they're doing because they're a market, not a coherent body of people. If we hadn't borrowed so much, squandered it and then buried our head in the sand to avoid the only solution, we wouldn't be in this mess.

@alexwickham @Vert_Galant City investors are threatening a Liz Truss-style gilt revolt if Starmer is replaced by anyone less fiscally conservative. This is modern Britain: unelected markets dictate policy.

@Youwillownzero @williamnhutton @Keir_Starmer None of which will happen. Hence the bond markets, hence the massive incoming political and economic earthquake and tsunami. All 100% predictable and very bad news for the country. Idiots the lot of them.

@williamnhutton @Keir_Starmer needs to do 3 things asap: get rid of Red Ed. Net zero is a real driver of the cost of living. He needs to sack Reeves & reduce basic income tax for workers and reverse NI increase for Emp and abolish tons of useless quangos to restore democratic accountability.

The cabinet and PLP need to keep their heads. Ousting Starmer now will mean a G. Election in 12 months which will be a rout - Farage’s long game. Starmer needs a political ‘quad’ like the Coalition government’s to make better political judgements. Buy time and political space.

@MrTCHarris @williamnhutton @AlanOlive1 People on the streets.

@williamnhutton @AlanOlive1 Talk us through how a government with a majority of 170 and three years left of this parliament can be forced to hold an early election, Will? What's the process?

A loveless landslide. Obvious at the time as was the inevitable downfall. Labour elected because they weren't the Tories on a nebulous and not challenged policy platform. The diametric opposite of what is required to get the country back on its feet. This was always going to happen.

@Gimpuslegend @ShippersUnbound Still a landslide booby

Hard to beat this level of analysis

@JuliaHB1 @ShippersUnbound At this point I think he's just engagement farming as most of what he says is so bat shit crazy.

@ShippersUnbound TBH I’ve never really worked that out either but apparently some TV and radio stations ask him on to give for his views. It’s a mystery for the ages.

Why does this idiot keep appearing in my timeline? I've had guinea pigs who could offer sharper political analysis than this.

@implausibleblog @BpsmithUk You're tying yourself in knots because your hero's halo slipped a little. Stop press, this will happen again. Don't put people on pedestals, it will always come back and haunt you and greatly diminishes your believability.

Agreed, he wasn't a spokesman and he has apologised for using that specific word But the implication in The Times article was that he wasn't associated or affiliated with the British Red Cross And the point of my sharing this post is that while he may not have been an official spokesman, he did indeed volunteer for many years at events talking about and supporting fundraising for the British Red Cross So what was meant to be something similar to Rachel Reeves saying she worked at the Bank of England for 10 years, when it was actually 5 years, is nowhere near the scale of the current Chancellor misrepresenting her career ZP at least had the integrity to apologise and correct the record RR has not

Left: The Times, "Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be British Red Cross spokesman" Right: British Red Cross paid staff who managed the fundraising events says Zack Polanski was on stage representing the British Red Cross at multiple events over many years