Venugopal Narayanan

What does this mean for India?

Food for thought. The age of cartel scarcity is ending The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC is not just another quarrel inside an oil cartel. It is a move in the New Great Game taking shape across energy, trade routes and strategic commodities. For years, Abu Dhabi accepted the logic of collective restraint. Saudi Arabia would lead, Russia would amplify, and other producers would sacrifice volume for price. That bargain worked while members shared the same goal: defend oil prices without destroying demand. The UAE no longer fits the model. It has invested heavily to expand capacity, while OPEC+ quotas have limited its ability to monetise those barrels. ADNOC has targeted crude production capacity of 5mn barrels a day by 2027, while UAE production has often been restrained by OPEC+ agreements (EIA). Abu Dhabi wants to convert oil in the ground into sovereign wealth while demand still has value. The cartel wants patience. The UAE wants velocity. That is the structural shift. The oil market is moving from price defence to market-share capture. The UAE is not leaving OPEC because it has lost faith in oil. It is leaving because it wants to sell more of it while the world still needs it. Investors should separate the shock from the regime. In the short term, the Iran conflict drives prices because it determines whether barrels can move through Hormuz. If tankers cannot sail, spare capacity is theoretical. War risk, insurance costs and inventories set the front-month price. But Iran does not define the long-term price structure. Wars create spikes; structures determine regimes. The structural story is bearish: OPEC is less cohesive, the UAE is more willing to chase volume, and the US is now the resource superpower OPEC once feared. The US became the world’s top crude producer in 2018 and produced a record 13.2mn barrels a day in 2024 (EIA). For Donald Trump, the rupture is useful. A weaker OPEC means Saudi Arabia and Russia have less ability to manage prices. Lower oil is a tax cut for US households and a weapon against inflation. But Hormuz limits the victory lap. Trump can pressure cartels; he cannot repeal geography. China sees the same map differently. It remains exposed to Gulf flows and needs reliable suppliers. Beijing has relied on discounted Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, but those supplies carry sanctions, shipping and insurance risk. A freer UAE can offer something more valuable than cheap crude: reliability. This is the New Great Game in energy form. The US wants lower cartel power. China wants secure supply. The UAE wants autonomy and relevance in both capitals. Saudi Arabia wants to preserve cartel authority. Russia wants disruption to keep energy geopolitics in play. The age of cartel scarcity is giving way to the age of market-share oil. The marginal barrel is no longer merely an economic unit. It is a geopolitical instrument.

🚨🚨🚨🚨FULL STATEMENT: UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1. "... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..."

Malayali Hindutvawadis placing the photo of a foreign king whose contribution to Kerala is negligible is an example that proves Malayali Hindutvawadis are subservient to North Indian Hindutvawadis. NOTE: We will never see North Indian Hindutvawadis glorifying the Malayali king Marthanda Varma for defeating the Dutch navy at the Battle of Colachel in Kerala. However, Malayali Hindutvawadis place photos of North Indian kings in Kerala when North Indian Hindutvawadis ask them to do so. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Where India Imports its LPG from

Next-gen Advanced Armoured Platforms (Tracked & Wheeled) 🇮🇳

"Pakistan's warm relations with the United States may cause India to limit its response to the next significant cross-border terrorist incident. At the very least, unlike other previous incidents, and I was an ambassador when we had the Pulwama and Balakot incident, India may have doubts as to whether the United States will support a muscular response to Pakistani-based terrorist groups," says Kenneth Juster, Former US Ambassador to India

هذا ما قلته لرويترز اليوم: لم تعد الامارات بحاجة لأمريكا كي تدافع عنها فقد اكدت خلال العدوان الإيراني انها قادرة الدفاع عن نفسها بجدارة، ما تحتاجه الإمارات هو اقتناء افضل وأحدث ما لدى امريكا من اسلحة فقط لذلك حان وقت التفكير في اغلاق القواعد الأمريكية فهي عبء وليس رصيد استراتيجي

Has this man, no idea of how this amendment will affect South India?

I honestly thought this map was made up Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction. Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the "we were heading to Saudi Arabia but NVM" route. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and everyone panicked. Oil hit $126 a barrel. Gas hit $4 a gallon. Cable news did the thing where they put a red banner on screen and say "CRISIS" in a font that suggests you should be hoarding toilet paper. And then something happened that nobody in media seems interested in reporting, for obvious reasons. The world just... switched suppliers? Like changing your internet provider except the internet provider is the entire effing global energy economy. American oil exports are approaching record levels. Gulf Coast refineries are running at 95% capacity. Supertankers that were mid-ocean on their way to the Persian Gulf literally turned around and headed to Texas. That's not a metaphor. Ship tracking data shows them doing U-turns in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile China, which was getting 45% of its oil imports through Hormuz and paying basement prices for sanctioned Iranian crude, is now competing with Japan and Europe for the same expensive American barrels. Chinese manufacturers are already raising prices 20% on goods headed to the US. So to summarize: Iran played its biggest card and the main result is that the United States became the world's emergency gas station and China's cheap energy subsidy evaporated. This is either the most elaborate coincidence in the history of geopolitics... or someone planned the sequence Venezuela -> Iran -> profits! I'll let you figure out which one