Ignacio Rodríguez de-Rementería
203.9K posts
@ignace
Sound eng. @CanalCL┋📡 Satcoms @Globalsat┋OSINT junkie┋A bit face blind┋Forward thinker, backwards-compatible┋Local-first globalist.
The world is losing oil, fertilizer, and sulfuric acid simultaneously. The market priced only the oil. Per The Wall Street Journal, citing Argus pricing data and the US Geological Survey, sulfuric acid prices in China rose roughly 1,150% in May compared with two years earlier. Middle Eastern sulfur prices surged 750%. Chile, the world’s largest sulfuric acid importer, saw prices jump 230%. Sulfuric acid converts phosphate rock into fertilizer. It processes copper. It manufactures batteries. It fabricates semiconductors. The Persian Gulf supplies roughly half of global sulfur exports. The chemical that touches food, electric vehicles, and chip fabs is breaking simultaneously. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told investors Monday this is “the largest energy supply shock the world has ever experienced.” Per CNBC, the world has lost one billion barrels of oil supply, net 880 million after east-west pipeline reroutes and strategic reserve releases. Two to five ships now pass Hormuz daily, down from seventy before the war. Around 240 ships are waiting outside. The market loses 100 million barrels per week the Strait stays closed. If disruption persists past mid-June, normalization runs “into 2027.” The Wall Street Journal reports US crude inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen for four consecutive weeks and risk reaching their lowest level since 1982. Per Bloomberg, the IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of emergency reserves. The United States has released only 79.7 million of the 172 million it pledged. JPMorgan head of global commodities Natasha Kaneva warned OECD oil inventories could reach “operational stress levels” by June and “fall to minimum operating thresholds by September.” This is the energy story. Per the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar Fertiliser Company, which supplies 14% of global urea single-handedly, has declared force majeure. Major fertilizer plants across the Gulf have reduced or suspended production. Three to four million tonnes per month of fertilizer is stalled. Per CNBC, urea FOB Egypt has risen from $400 pre-war to $700 per tonne. Per Reuters, Brazil’s urea imports have fallen 33% year over year. Bangladesh has shut four of five fertilizer factories. India has cut output at three urea plants. The United States is running 25% short of fertilizer supply for spring planting. The World Food Programme projects 45 million people could enter acute hunger within months. The 2022 Ukraine crisis pushed 70 million into hunger over 18 months. This onset is faster. This is the food story. Aluminum, helium, and sulfur markets are all in supply shock. Helium is essential to semiconductor manufacturing. Indonesia sulfur prices are up over 80%, prompting nickel producers to cut output for EV batteries. This is the industrial story. President Trump rejected Iran’s response Monday as “totally unacceptable” and “a piece of garbage.” He said the ceasefire is “on massive life support.” A US Navy Ohio-class nuclear-armed submarine arrived in Gibraltar Sunday. Trump arrives in Beijing on May 14 and 15. A 1,150% sulfuric acid move in China. A 45-million-person acute hunger projection. A US strategic reserve approaching 1982 lows. An OECD inventory cliff in June. A fertilizer famine in three months. A market at all-time high. The market priced one shock. There are three. The summit two days away decides which of them gets resolved first. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
@auonsson It makes again news in local media. TL;DR: never before was that bad. trojmiasto.pl/wiadomosci/Kol…
NEW: The US has conducted at least 25 intelligence-gathering flights off the coast of Cuba since early February, per data from @FlightRadar24 Check out my analysis: cnn.com/2026/05/10/ame…
