Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta
$1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX the largest IPO in human history. And it might be underpriced.
Saudi Aramco held that record. December 2019. $1.7 trillion valuation, $25.6 billion raised. It took the Saudi government guaranteeing $75 billion in annual dividends for five years, coercing wealthy families into buying shares, and offering citizens cheap bank loans to participate. They sold 1.5% on the Riyadh exchange after international investors balked.
SpaceX wants to top that while raising double the capital: $50 billion. On the Nasdaq. No sovereign government backstopping demand. No guaranteed dividends. Just math.
The math is staggering. Starlink hit 1 million subscribers in December 2022. 10 million in February 2026. 10x in three years for a business that requires manufacturing dishes, launching satellites, and building ground stations across 155 countries. AT&T took 76 years to reach 10 million landline customers. Starlink is adding 21,000 new users per day. At that rate, they’ll pass 20 million before the IPO prices in June.
Run the revenue stack. Residential at $120/month. Maritime at $5,000/month. Aviation at $300,000/year per carrier. Starshield Pentagon contracts worth $3 billion. Starlink alone did over $10 billion in 2025 revenue. Analysts project $15 to $24 billion in 2026. That’s Netflix-tier revenue growing at triple Netflix’s rate, with 90% market share and zero meaningful competition in orbit.
65% of every active satellite above your head right now is a Starlink satellite. The constellation is larger than every other operator on Earth combined. SpaceX launched more rockets last year than every other country on the planet combined. They’ve turned orbital access into a marginal cost game nobody else can play.
Then the xAI merger folded Grok, X, and a full AI research lab onto the same balance sheet. One ticker now contains the rocket monopoly, the dominant satellite telecom, the AI lab, and the platform you’re reading this on. Four trillion-dollar addressable markets packaged into a single offering.
At $1.75 trillion on $15 billion in 2025 revenue, the sticker reads 115x. Sounds insane until you realize Starlink’s revenue is compounding at 80%+ annually with 90% market share in a category that didn’t exist five years ago. At that growth rate, the 115x becomes 30x on 2028 revenue. Amazon traded at 30x when AWS was at this stage of its curve.
Bloomberg reports this is the first of three mega-IPOs this summer. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, collectively asking public markets for north of $4 trillion in a single quarter.
The real number to watch is $50 billion in primary capital. Musk has said it funds Starship flight rate, orbital data centers, and a lunar base. If even one of those bets connects, $1.75 trillion will look like the opening bid.
