The Mush

Ok story time. Going to do my best to tell the story of how I "won" 46K on the scoop of the carryover P6 at Saratoga on Wednesday August 16th with @SwiftHitter @REALChessChamp, @FlyerTom23 and @nic00____ can all vouch for me that I was under the impression I had 10% of this ticket.

@EPatGolf Who said he wasn't in form? The only issue was the back, which is obviously good now.

How did we all convince ourselves that Rory may not be in form? His Players result was all because of poor putting

@RBaroff427 Could insert Rahm too

@LadySportsHolt @derby1592 Thanks

@intothefray86 @derby1592 I kept last yr's chart & included in both shaded greenn columns: Sovereignty (1), Journalism (2), Baeza (3), Burnham Square (6). The outliers that didn't quite fit the profile were Final Gambit (4-but did have fast final 8th) & Owen Almighty (5-Neither column). Pretty well done!

The following is NOT my top 20 list for the Derby. It is just another type of performance figure that is very different from any others and is created by a computer model that projects the expected final times for each Derby horse based on its best race prior to the Derby at 1, 1/8th miles or longer. The model basically assumes that the horses will repeat that effort and extends their race out to 1,1/4 miles, which obviously is a very dangerous assumption to make in the Kentucky Derby. The input from the model comes from TimeformUS result charts using the adjusted fractions calculated by @CraigMilkowski. Consider this just another input for your Derby Analysis, but probably more informative than a lot of other information that you will be bombarded with as the Derby approaches. The main number to look at is in the second to last column (Adj Proj 10f Time). This is the predicted final time for each horse in the Derby. Those horses with green shaded times are contenders. The next most important number is the last column (Final 8th TF adj). This is how long it took the horse to run the last 8th of a mile in its Derby prep. This is not the “raw” final fraction that you often see. It is based on adjustments made by Craig to account for the track speed. Obviously, this is much more meaningful than looking at just the “raw” fraction. Those horses with green shaded times are contenders. Finally, the horses that have green shaded times in both those columns are the primary contenders and the winner is very likely to come from that group. This year that list would include: Further Ado, So Happy, Renegade, The Puma, and Commandment. Chief Wallabee just misses so you can probably include him as well. Not surprisingly, that is a list of mostly favorites although So Happy looks like the best value right now based on the model as he seems to be a bit under the radar despite winning the Santa Anita Derby. Note that I do not have data for the foreign horses, so you are on your own with them. Feel free to use or ignore. Also, if you want to up your game before the Derby, then you should order by new book, Betting on Horses$, which is packed with wisdom from top players that will help you improve your results. Go to BetWithTheBestMedia.com to find out more and order your copy at the discounted price. Good luck

@adon7X LIV should sign Jose Maria

curious now to see if Carlos Ortiz beats at least one member of the Masters nursing home this week

@GaetenD I can buy Decimal prices but can't figure out how to sell?

Kalshi now

@doubles_2003 I remember telling you he'd never win a G1

Thought this spineless bum was retired, he’s not, so here we are 👍

@Random501901 @roundrobin42 Sometimes there is no cash out offer. It seems random. Also the offer is almost always lower than the current fair value. You can make a bet for $50 and instantly they will offer a cashout for like $44 even though the odds didnt change at all.

@intothefray86 @roundrobin42 I don't use sportsbooks. Are cash out offers really that hard to get? Don't they just offer you exactly the same bet as they would have offered if you had no position?

Common misconception I hear among journalists covering prediction markets is that the ability to easily trade in and out of positions means users can lock in profits/lose less than at traditional sportsbooks. But the opposite is actually true, bc every trade = more fees/losses

@Golf_Stats How do you accout for LIV players?

Top-5 trends for the Masters Tournament Look for... Top-10 finish in the Masters in the last five years Top-10 finish in the last eight PGA Tour events played in Georgia Top-10 ranking in SG: Putting in last 2 months Ranked top-10 in the field for Par-5 Scoring No-one meets all 19 green- and gold-coloured criteria. Top-ranked: Tommy Fleetwood (16) Scottie Scheffler (15) Robert Macintyre (14) Ludvig Aberg (13) Russell Henley (13) Shane Lowry (13) Rory McIlroy (13)

@BrianKirschner_ He's unstoppable around the greens today. Definitely gonna keep that up through the 18th hole.

OMFG

@failedtomenace Then Renegade is the answer

@intothefray86 He might be but I think the choice will be between those other two. Irad already opted to ride Renegade over Commandment last week.

If you’re Irad Ortiz Jr., who would you choose to ride in the 152nd Kentucky Derby? #HorseRacing

@GolfBetCaddie @TheMasters I thought Collin has had very good form this year? Only issue is health.

Form for @TheMasters this year: Scottie 📉 Rory - Back/Defending champ 📉 Rahm 📈 Bryson 📈 Xander 📈 Aberg 📈 Fitz 📈 Fleetwood 📈 Young 📈 Mac 📈 Kawa 📉 Hideki 📉 Reed 📈 Brooks 📈 Spieth 📈 All this will lead to one thing on late Sunday…

@doubles_2003 Isn't that the case for every horse in every race?

Zany would’ve won if good enough btw 👍

@GaetenD Trump won and can't be reelected. Why would he care?

I still don't understand the political strategy of winning an election running on making things cheaper, then turning around and implementing policies that make things more expensive.

@doubles_2003 +187? He's that good?

Good enough for me 👍

@wheatonbrando Cayden Boozer

Braylon Mullins.

@WorldWideWob Tops last year which was crazy as is

You could assemble every Oscar-winning writer in Hollywood and they still wouldn’t be able to put together a funnier Duke losing script than that.

@aaronbronsteter What does Terrance need to do to get a bonus?

White says that it was a rough night to pick bonus winners and that Terrance McKinney was definitely in the conversation.

Dana White is speaking to media following #UFCSeattle Notes below 🔽