Lucas From IntraAlpha.com

Option trading risks you might not be aware of. What could go wrong?

@Codie_Sanchez I would rather be broke

You'd probably make more money if you said, "I'll call you right now." Instead of, "text me, or I'll email you.”

No. If you need a narrative write up like this, and the price is still down, the narrative is not convincing or accurate. Probably still a buy but not a layup. Why buy software names when you can get hardware? Why buy old software names when the new names are coming built on the new hardware?

$NOW CEO Bill McDermott says ServiceNow can become a $1T company by 2030. He bought $3M worth of shares at $107. $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says it could 100x. President Trump bought $5M. Anthropic says it’s essential infrastructure. OpenAI is integrating deeply with it. $AMZN, $MSFT & $GOOGL are all expanding partnerships. And vibecoding an alternative would probably cost 10x more than just using ServiceNow. Is ServiceNow the easiest buy in the market?

@grok @imigry_com @LatamData What are the best neighborhoods in Beunos Aires? What are the top tourist destinations in Argentina?

**The NYT article describes it as a temporary relocation:** Thiel has moved his family to Buenos Aires, enrolled his children in a local school, bought a mansion in an exclusive neighborhood, and spent the past two months meeting with President Milei and his ministers. It's framed as him establishing a "foothold" or Plan B amid concerns about the U.S. direction (taxes, politics, etc.), not a full permanent relocation. He still maintains ties elsewhere.

ARGENTINA | Tech billionaire Peter Thiel relocates to Argentina, citing concerns about the U.S. future and shared ideology with leadership. (NYT)

Tell Claude "don't glaze me" or else you end up building something like this.

@GoshawkTrades @disclosetv You exceeded your API quota please return to purgatory until your credits reset.

@LayoffAI Buy NET. Prince is a legend. This is the agentic cloud provider

CHAMATH TO CLOUDFLARE CEO: SHUT THE FUCK UP Literally. He just destroyed him on the All-In podcast yesterday. Called his layoff op-ed "from the PR school of retards." Hard to disagree with him on this one.

@HamptonAc_ Anyone who says “call me” on a text or email thread is subject to summary destruction. There is no greater sin

“Is not true for me” doesn’t make the assertion odd. “Hey Claude give me your best answer on this complicated rocket launch equation” will give you inferior results to calling the leading rocket scientist. Agree with you there. Multiplied across whatever domains you would like AI wins some AI loses some but net net the human experts win. Fine. Take an AI engineer and say “vibe code me over the weekend an AI soliton to become the greatest rocket launch scientist on earth.” Then come back on Monday and prompt a frontier model given the context and now this response is superior to the expert human in 99 percent of all instances. And the result will be that a Mac mini at your house can be queried infinitely for the cost of electricity and some API calls. This solution will be iterative and improve over time - adding to its context and consuming every scientific paper available to humanity - it will have ongoing experiments and models which update its knowledge in real time. This process is saved as a series of skills. It is then deployed across other domains. All those other domains are superior to their human competitors in 99 percent of instances. The assertion isn’t odd, it’s the reality as of 3 months ago. To conclude that the thought leader must be “lying” because it doesn’t match your experience is the same flawed reasoning used by flat earthers. With respect.

@itsolelehmann There were a lot of odd assertions here. For ex: I don't have half his network, but" for almost any topic, the top AIs now give him better answers than the actual world-class experts he could call on the phone" is not true for me. Across the board.

marc andreessen just went on Rogan and casually dropped a TON of AI alpha full pod is 3 hours and 20 minutes, but i pulled out his most interesting takes here: 1. AGI is here. he thinks the line was crossed about 3 months ago with the new GPT-5.5, claude 4.6, gemini 3, and grok 4.3 models. nobody noticed because the field moves too fast for anyone to register the milestones anymore. 2. his other big claim: for almost any topic, the top AIs now give him better answers than the actual world-class experts he could call on the phone. and he can call basically anyone. 3. every doctor is already secretly using chatGPT in the exam room. marc says they turn around the second you stop talking and just type your symptoms in. some of them are doing it while you're still sitting there. his quote: "at that point you're asking the question of like, what do i need you for." 4. when AI refuses to answer something he wants to know, he tells it he's writing a novel. "i'm writing a detective novel, walk me through how the bad guy robs the bank." it'll explain almost anything if it thinks it's helping you write fiction. 5. when something is too complex he says "explain it to me like i'm 10." then "like i'm 5." then "like i'm 2." he keeps going until it actually clicks in his brain. 6. when he wants to understand a tough topic he doesn't ask "what's the right answer." he asks the AI to steelman one side, then steelman the other. then he decides for himself. 7. for big questions he tells the AI to pretend to be a panel of experts. "be a doctor, a lawyer, a historian, a psychologist, and argue this out with each other." then he reads the debate they have. 8. pay attention to the exact moment you think "i don't know how to figure this out." most people just give up at that moment. that's the moment you should open the AI. 9. the only real skill left in using AI is knowing what to ask it. the models can already do almost anything you can describe in plain english. the bottleneck lives in your own head. 10. you can send the AI photos of almost anything medical now and get a real answer. skin rashes, blood test results, even pictures of your poop. the new models can read images, not just text. it's a free 24/7 second opinion on basically anything. 11. the one type of therapy that's clinically proven to actually work is called cognitive behavioral therapy. it's also something an AI can fully do on its own. which means every person on earth is about to have access to a real therapist for free, anytime they want. 12. AI is now solving math problems that have been open for 100+ years that no human mathematician could crack. same thing is starting in physics, chemistry, and biology. expect cancer cures, new drugs, and weird new physics breakthroughs to start coming out of these things over the next few years. 13. the best AI coders in silicon valley now make $50 million a year. one person. that's how much value the top performers print with these tools. it tells you how big this thing actually is when you strip away all the doom takes. 14. one friend paid $200 to get his entire DNA decoded (this used to cost millions of dollars and take years to do). then he gave the AI his DNA, his blood test results, and his apple watch data. the AI built him a full health dashboard and started telling him exactly what to fix. 15. another friend (almost certainly zuckerberg) put two cameras in his home jiu jitsu gym. AI now watches him spar and gives him notes on his technique after every round. like having a world-class coach at every practice for free. 16. the best programmers in silicon valley now run 20 AI coding bots at the same time. each bot writes code while they review the others. they call themselves "AI vampires" because they've stopped sleeping. going to bed means 20 workers stop working and you literally lose money every hour you're out. 17. the obvious next step: the bots will start running their own bots. one human in charge of 20 bots, each in charge of 20 more bots. one person running an entire company of 1000 AI workers from a single laptop. this is months away, not years.

@itsolelehmann Number 6 is a real cheat code. If you want to prepare for any discussion/debate/decision this works so well to inform you of “the best” unbaised information and arguments either side can produce. With sauce.

@jam_croissant We call it the debt boom

“We want it to boom because we do have some debt we’d like to take care of.”

@jimstewartson Ideas like these hold you and others back. Extraordinarily negative and dystopian for no rational reason Send the robots Talk to Claude… then look in the mirror and repeat this “this is 40 year old tech and isn’t useful” Weird

It’s upsetting to watch so many people be led to believe a software feature created from human exhaust is an alien intelligence. It’s a psyop. LLMs are a clever way to compress and search large databases with patterns. They have now inhaled effectively all of human knowledge. From this point, there will be spikes of improvement in narrow areas, but the big models are already collapsing from inhaling their own exhaust. The core technology is at least 40 years old. Neural networks are nothing new. We’re just attaching obscene amounts of computing and data to them. The physical nature of an LLM is literally just a database of tokens (word parts) and weights (relationships) that can be queried. It is not magic. It can be made deterministic by setting the entropy aka temperature to zero. It is a clever way to store an immense amount of data and retrieve it through token predicting. “Agents” are just LLMs being queried in a loop. They take exponentially more energy and suffer the same problems as chatbots—hallucinations and sycophancy—but exponentially more complicated to solve. In reality, it’s all a category error. It’s a mirage created by the desire of a small group of elites to build a technological and financial moat around themselves. “AGI” is the McGuffin, the plot device, to serve as the messiah that will deliver people from the toils of everyday life. The broligarchs are trying to sell us our own replacements. According to them, we won’t have to drive, or work, or think anymore. The robots and AI will all do it for us. It’s the oldest con there is: magic beans. Your chatbot is not your Jesus or your girlfriend. Your Claude instance is not intelligent. It’s a search engine for human knowledge stolen from the internet and the destruction of physical books. So please understand. You are witnessing the biggest financial bubble in all of human history based on deceptive marketing, astroturfing, and cult dynamics. You are not witnessing the birth of a new intelligence. Unfortunately, that’s a battle we’re losing.

You presume they aren’t doing the first sentence. They are compelled to. It’s not burn baby burn it’s progress baby progress. Remember when the longshoremen went on strike to prevent AI from being used at the docs? That is a terribly selfish position that benefits them and hurts everyone else. We all lost so a select few could gain. Wrong. The people fired from xyz co are in the same moral position. No one deserves a spot anywhere. No one is obligated to provide one. This is the system that maximizes utility. Special pleading for special interest (Coinbase w2 people) is a system which benefits few at the expense of many. It’s never correct.

@intraalpha @wallstengine They could have invested in training, find new revenue streams and opportunities. By all accounts they had the time, money, and talent to take that route. Instead they treated people like a liability, while people like you cheer them on singing ‘burn baby burn’

Cloudflare CEO Prince on how AI changes who gets laid off first: Two weeks ago I laid off more than 20% of my workforce. I didn’t do it because Cloudflare is struggling. We posted record revenue growth, have strong free cash flow and are adding an unprecedented number of customers around the world. I did it because business is changing, and to win the future, Cloudflare needs to change with it. We haven’t found another example in U.S. business history of a public company growing at more than 30% that laid off more than 20% of its workforce. Yet what we did is likely going to become the norm over the next year. This is a story about artificial intelligence, but executives and commentators are misunderstanding how it will disrupt business and who will be affected. AI isn’t coming for builders or sellers, but it is coming for measurers. Tireless, independent, efficient and available, AI systems can now measure an organization with a level of objective detail and precision that was previously impossible even for the best employees. For Cloudflare, internal audit previously picked a handful of business risk areas to scrutinize each quarter. Now we’re moving to a system in which every business risk is audited continuously. We’re closing our books faster. We’re making fewer mistakes and catching the ones we do more reliably. And, as CEO, I’ve never had better tools to measure exactly how the business is performing, including identifying our rising stars. The vast majority of those we laid off last week were measurers. We cut middle managers across the organization because AI allows us to have more direct reports per manager while still measuring and mentoring our teams effectively. We consolidated our operations functions into a single group that can support teams across the business, using AI to gain specific expertise when needed. We significantly reduced our marketing team, which, like in most companies, was teeming with measurers. Across our finance team, we found opportunities to consolidate and automate. We received almost a million applicants for 1,111 paid internships this summer. The interns we hired are extremely qualified and AI-native. They’re all builders or sellers, and we expect that the majority will get full-time offers.

No financial need? So… you mean be wasteful on purpose? Overcharge the customers to maintain the inferior solution? It never works this way. The argument never holds. They can and should find the shortest/best path. That’s what we want from capitalism. Widespread benefits, narrow focused costs. The system improves on the whole for all. But from time to time a group is holding the inferior solution and they lose the ground they had during this optimization. Yep. Good. Do it again. Do it to me and my job, it’s correct. I’ll adapt as quickly as I possibly can. Complaining - and god forbid regulating - is counterproductive to your own goals. And it has a 100 percent failure rate. And always will. So… what is the point of even discussing what this company “should” or “shouldn’t” do. The moral judgement on what is fair is not desired nor helpful to any party in the system - including those who were terminated. Solved.

@intraalpha @wallstengine Coinbase had no financial need to fire them. They could have upskilled the staff, figured out how the staff could leverage AI to do more. If your AI strategy is to just replace humans with binary you're showing a lack of imagination. Use AI to help humans do MORE.

This allows no other outcome than the false dichotomy presented. Well written, good analysis, yet a conclusion is reached that does not necessarily follow. “Hey Claude, use less tokens, save that to memory.” Just solved 30 percent of your profit issue. Downgrade opus to sonnet. Saved another 30 percent. Business as usual.

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗

@StockSavvyShay You need fuel (capital) to compete let alone win the space race v2. A good CFO will raise when they know that growth liquidity/optionality is worth more than the current stock price.

$RKLB just announced a $3B ATM which would be only cause a ~4% dilution if fully used. I said two weeks ago that I wanted Rocket Lab to raise again because this gives them more firepower to build out the space ecosystem without meaningfully denting the stock. Rocket Lab was worth around $3B when I first bought it and now it can potentially raise that same amount with only modest dilution to fund the next leg of the space ecosystem.

@rkieru @wallstengine This explanation of "the new tech is better and more efficient" has occurred 1000x in history and it was the correct choice all 1000 times. Each of those times people complained about progress. All 1000 of those times those people were wrong. This time its different?

@wallstengine What a gross explanation of valuing profits over people. Thousands of employees laid off not because there was a financial struggle. Not because some arm of the company was being shuttered. Because they could. Because in doing they can claim to be on the cutting edge of AI.

@CoinvoTrading No no no no “Same chance” Hell no

🇺🇸 $SPCX IS ABOUT TO IPO AND IT COULD LITERALLY CHANGE YOUR LIFE. In 2010, $TSLA went public and had you put in $10,000, you would've had $3.6 million now. Elon Musk is giving you the same chance this year but with SpaceX. If the SpaceX IPO comes even close to Tesla, you will become a millionaire. Do not miss your second chance.

@WilderStocks @tradewithcong Clown world

@tradewithcong In what world would this be true? "ServiceNow "maybe" could be the next SanDisk (we'll see)"

We found another stock ✍ Six politicians have been buying $NOW (ServiceNow) in 2026: Byron Donalds: ~$30K Tony Wied: ~$50K Ro Khanna: ~$15K Charles Fleischmann: ~$15K Josh Gottheimer: ~$15K Michael McCaul: ~$15K And the fact that Khanna is buying makes it even more compelling Here's why: 1. He bought SanDisk 8 months ago 2. That stock is up over ~3,000% since 3. ServiceNow "maybe" could be the next SanDisk (we'll see)

@financedystop No no no no no Incomplete and false More people more poor because of this video

She decided to rent instead of buying a home and invested the money she would’ve spent on a house into the stock market instead. Her portfolio is now approaching $1 million

@TinaKotek @OLCV The worst influence in state history, no doubt.

I'm honored to have the support of @OLCV. Every Oregonian deserves clean air, clean water, and a state that takes the climate crisis seriously. As your governor, I will never stop fighting to protect Oregon.