Chicken Genius@pakpakchicken
Price came down a little. This is a copy pasta I sent to my close friends a while back:
Reducing exposure to crypto was a good / lucky call. Avoiding massive liquidations. Of course we can go higher from here. It’s way oversold. However it’s time to look elsewhere for better asymmetric risk.
First thing 1st. Open a brokerage that allows you to buy Hong Kong / China shares.
Multiple reasons:
> USA trading at multiples way higher and requires perfect execution to remain this high.
> REE ( Rare earth elements ) geopolitical risk. It takes 7-15 years to solve this.
Total Market cap ( Trillion )
Humanoid Robotics - 0.11 ( ex Tesla )
AI - 8.5
Semicon - 7.2
Biotech - 2
Crypto - 4.2
Humanoid Robotics is highly overlooked as nobody got any clue where to start except for TSLA. Else it depends on your connections with VC to get allocations.
How is a multi trillion industry worth 0.1 Trillion now?
Robotics is Physical AI. Physical AI replaces human labour. Solving for human labour is by far the biggest opportunity that will ever exist and here we are at 0.1 Trillion while Biotech is at 2 and crypto is at 4.2 Trillion.
I’ve done the primary research. I’ve also shared a pdf on robotics earlier this year. It’s on my X profile, click highlights tab. 4th post.
Ranked List: Who Succeeds First in Mass Scaling
1. Unitree Robotics (G1/H1) - $7B valuation (pre-IPO, Q4 2025)
Why First? Mass production underway at Hangzhou factory (10,000 sqm, 1,000+ units in 2025). $16K price point at Walmart.
Timeline: Now (2025: 1,000+; 2026: 10,000+).
Risks: Geopolitical
Edge: Fastest to market; open-sourced AI. Chinese State VC Investment
2. Agility Robotics (Digit) - $1.25B valuation (Series B, Mar 2025)
Why? RoboFab (Salem, OR) at 10,000/year capacity; hundreds in Amazon/GXO warehouses. $400M funding fuels RaaS for logistics.
Timeline: 2025: Thousands; 2026: 10,000+.
Risks: U.S. REE supply constraints.
Edge: Proven commercial contracts.
3. UBTech Robotics (Walker S1/S2) - $7B market cap (HKEX, Oct 2025)
Why? Foxconn/SF Express partnerships for 1,000+ units in 2025; MIIT subsidies target 500 robots/10k workers.
Timeline: 2025: 1,000+; 2026: 15,000+.
Risks: Geopolitical
Edge: State-backed industrial push. Chinese State VC Investment. Deployed areas with more orders = Proof of concept.
4. Tesla (Optimus Gen 3) - $1.4T market cap.
Why? Gigafactory aims for 10,000 internal units in 2025; It’s Elon. Don’t bet against him.
Timeline: 2025: 10,000 (internal); 2026: 100,000+.
Risks: REE bottlenecks, execution slippage, cost per unit VS China
Edge: Unmatched capital and AI.
5. Figure AI (Figure 02/03) - $39B valuation (Series C, Sep 2025)
Why? BMW pilots with OpenAI/MSFT backing; $1B+ raise fuels AI but no factory yet. Targets 100,000 by 2029.
Timeline: 2025: Pilots; 2027: 10,000+.
Risks: Hardware scale lag.
Edge: Elite AI ecosystem.
6. Boston Dynamics (Electric Atlas) - $1.1B valuation (Hyundai subsidiary, 2025)
Why? Hyundai orders thousands; TRI enhances agility. Production not prioritized.
Timeline: 2025: Hundreds; 2027: 5,000+.
Risks: High costs, slow pivot.
Edge: Best-in-class mobility.
7. Apptronik (Apollo) - $500M valuation (Series B, Feb 2025)
Why? Mercedes/Walmart pilots; $350M for warehouse scaling. Jabil partnership aids production.
Timeline: 2025: 500+; 2026: 5,000+.
Risks: Durability at scale.
Edge: Industrial focus.
8. 1X Technologies (Neo) - $1.5B valuation (Series B, 2024)
Why? OpenAI-backed household pilots; Norway factory starts low-volume.
Timeline: 2025: Low-volume; 2026: 2,000+.
Risks: Consumer safety regulations.
Edge: Domestic AI niche.
9. Sanctuary AI (Phoenix) - $1B valuation (Series D, 2025)
Why? Logistics pilots with Carbon Robotics; fine-motor AI focus.
Timeline: 2025: Pilots; 2027: 3,000+.
Risks: Precision scaling.
Edge: Adaptive learning.
10. Fourier Intelligence (GR-1/GR-2) - $300M valuation (Series E, 2025)
Why? Healthcare production at 1,000+/year; EU hospital shipments.
Timeline: 2025: 1,000+; 2026: 8,000+.
Risks: Broader market pivot.
Edge: Medical adoption.
This is not some crypto ADHD play. Just like how I sat on Tesla for years, this is how I’ll play this. I'll buy more if it goes down to the blue line.
If price goes down, I’m not your customer support. Don't thank me if it goes up too. You will jinx me.
I also know the Tesla fanboys will come after me. Your stock been flat for 4 years. That's a fact. While I'm very sure Tesla will do very well technically. I don't like buying $1.4T Market Cap. That's me. Good luck.