Jack Farley

OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊shorturl.at/NtLq4 Spotify📽️ shorturl.at/CQLKo YouTube📽️ rb.gy/k2g5jf

People dunked on Tucker for asking Ted Cruz how many people live in Iran but in retrospect it was a pretty relevant question

@EboCee that's why I indicated the source (Times of Israel) and their source ("western source"). Whether it's true I don't know

@JackFarley96 Sir, this sounds like fake news. Recall that twice previously, US/Israel attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations. Consequently, even a half witted Iranian is now very unlikely to believe any purported US negotiation offers. Thus it's unlikely real talks are happening.

Citing a "Western Source" Israel's Channel 12 reports the 15 conditions for a potential monthlong ceasefire with Iran: 1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities. 2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons. 3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory. 4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed. 5. The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled. 6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency and oversight inside Iran. 7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.” 8. Iran must cease the funding, direction and arming of its regional proxies. 9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor. 10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage. 11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense. In return, Iran would benefit as follows: 12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community. 13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant. 14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…

@Re_Learn1618 I think the chance that Iran would accept that is approximately zero.

@JackFarley96 Should add "no more anti-US propaganda billboards in the street" Seriously, this is a big deal reflective of the culture of the government. and for the past 47 years, that culture has been one centered on vengeance and genocidal aspirations. It's totally unprofessional.

@MaxPowderz the fact US media hasn't picked it up does make me doubt. I bet the sources are real it's just possible the sources are accurately describing one plan but there are 15 plans in the air and no one know what will be chosen even Trump

@JackFarley96 Seems like bullshit

@yixingwuyu Sadly, I see the merit in your argument. My read from public posts from Iranian government is that they are defiant. But of course everything could change in a moment. I'll be looking to see if this 15-point plan is picked up in Western media. There is a chance it is incorrect

@JackFarley96 这是伊朗不可能接受的条件，即便前几条留下了退后空间，那也是不可接受的。战争还会继续。

I will note that Witkoff and Kushner were negotiating with Iran right before U.S. attacked Iran so I doubt there is goodwill there, to put it mildly.

This is highly uncertain and unclear if this is accurate. Not yet in U.S. media as far as I can tell. This is from Times of Israel: timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry… Clause 3 is basically what the UAE has and would mean that Iran would have to import enriched uranium into the country for energy/medical etc purposes Clause 8 means Iran stops arming/funding anti-Israel groups. Clause 13 is removal of sanctions, which would be big

@OSINT_Strong @Rory_Johnston True

@JackFarley96 @Rory_Johnston And yet Brent is lower than is was 8 days ago

Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds

gold now lower for 10 days straight, longest losing streak on record

This chart was made before Trump said Iran had given him a "present" related to the Strait of Hormuz... My recent interview with Rory: Apple🔊shorturl.at/sZ2JE Spotify📽️shorturl.at/ZurCL Rory's research commoditycontext.com/monetarymatters

There's a scramble to look for more fertilizer production & stockpiles. When it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer, "it simply does not exist." - @JLinvilleFert Apple 🔊shorturl.at/NtLq4 Spotify📽️ shorturl.at/CQLKo YouTube📽️ rb.gy/k2g5jf

@JakeSmGaming Quarter century of fertilizer experience. He specifically says in the interview, "this is not sensational, this is just a fact."

Every day gets worse... said every doomer ever. Still waiting on verified sources.

Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch

Sulphur Magazine, January 2026: the sulphur market is in extreme deficit. Thankfully, new supply is arriving from the Middle East! 😅😅😅

OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊shorturl.at/NtLq4 Spotify📽️ shorturl.at/CQLKo YouTube📽️ rb.gy/k2g5jf

Interesting nugget in the $ARES ASIF letter, detailing who the redeemers were (11.6% of shares outstanding) ‘The majority of repurchase requests were made by a limited number of family offices and smaller institutions in select geographies who represent less than 1% of our over 20,000 shareholders.’ This aligns with what I’ve been hearing about the makeup of the redeemers - that it’s a few, very wealthy investors

@nickgiva1 True. I was thinking to myself "I should have taken some when they showed it in science class in elementary school"

@JackFarley96 Smells bad 😜

Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit