
Jacob Drori
81 posts


@RatOrthodox Claude seems pretty deeply nice to me. Unless by "deep" you mean like "making it non-nice would require a ton of FLOPs"
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@RatOrthodox > if pertaining had reliably led to the creation of seemingly nice minds somehow wo any RL or fine-tuning
Huh. I think it's striking how little finetuning is required to elicit a "nice mind".
or maybe you don't think current LLMs are "nice"?
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Sure! If you could give me a readable python program that has the same io behavior as a 9B model; if you could show me a new way for humanity to coordinate and build a field of common knowledge generation around an extremely low feedback domain; if I saw that we had paused for a decade or so and then spent a lot of our civ's resources working on the problem; if I saw that we were investing a lot in human intelligence enhancement specifically to work on the alignment problem; if pertaining had reliably led to the creation of seemingly nice minds somehow wo any RL or fine-tuning.
And many more to be honest. Mostly the things that would convince me however are not concrete observations of this kind because the main concrete observation I would like to make is seeing an ASI around and seeing that it is aligned and not killing anybody. The problem with this is that you cannot get it wrong even once to gather such observations, so yes, this is a uniquely difficult problem to get empirical evidence about, and that makes us much much much more fucked, not less. But the main things that would convince me are basically arguments.
Show me that P(aligned):P(not aligned) * P(aligned | used technique x):P(not aligned | used technique x) is high, and I will immediately start extremely loudly advocating for scaling and using technique x.
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@liron @Alien_AV @RabbiMivasair I'm confused, could you clarify whether "resulting mental image" refers to your own mental image or to mine? If yours: it's hard to extract any lesson from what you said because I can't read your mind. If mine: I am spooked because apparently you can read my mind.
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@jacobcd52 @Alien_AV @RabbiMivasair When I say “shot a 5 year old to death”, the resulting mental image is completely inconsistent with something the IDF has ever done. Let that be a lesson to you.
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Translated from Hebrew:
Are you okay that we live in a society where I can go to the supermarket right now, start putting tomatoes in a bag, and next to me in the cucumbers there'll be a guy who shot a 5-year-old to death?
Or go to the bank and the person in front of me in line dropped a bomb on a building and killed everyone who lived in it?
Or go to a clinic and be treated by a doctor who just came back from reserves in a torture camp?
How can you live as if everything is normal?
Israel must be stopped because it is not going to stop by itself.
fabfag@fabfag31
אתם בסדר עם זה שאנחנו חיים בחברה שבה אני יכול ללכת עכשיו לסופר, להתחיל להכניס עגבניות לשקית, ולידי במלפפונים יהיה אדם שירה בילד בן 5 למוות? או ללכת לבנק והאדם שלפניי בתור הפיל פצצה על בניין והרג את כל מי שגר בו?
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@liron @Alien_AV @RabbiMivasair I didn't realize you were drawing a deliberate distinction between shot vs bombed, so the numbers I gave above don't directly address your original statement. My bad.
That said, my prior is that more Palestinian children are killed by gunshot. Prove me wrong?
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@jacobcd52 @Alien_AV @RabbiMivasair The IDF wasn’t targeting any of those kids which makes it extremely statistically unlikely you’ll find a Palestinian kid getting shot by an Israeli.
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@RatOrthodox are there any pre-ASI observations that would make you much more optimistic about ASI alignment?
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@Alien_AV @liron @RabbiMivasair > TBH I don't believe in giving Oct 7 a preferential treatment in this case
Yeah I just look at post oct 7 stats since they were easy to google. Do you predict the conclusion would change significantly if we looked further back?
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@Alien_AV @liron @RabbiMivasair A few dead babies could be an accident, but several hundred? The IDF surely knows roughly how many babies a given airstrike will kill (it's been doing this long enough to establish base rates) and decides the tradeoff is worth it. So yes, I'd call these killings "intentional".
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@BoggisCat @liron @RabbiMivasair Then he should have said that, Rather than "You’re more likely to find someone who shot a 5 year old to death in Palestine", which is obviously false.
> Presumably the inmates at Sobibor were responsible for most of them being killed
No, your model of my beliefs is really bad.
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@jacobcd52 @liron @RabbiMivasair He is trying to claim that civilian deaths, including children, are the fault of Hamas.
Presumably the inmates at Sobibor were responsible for most of them being killed when they attempted their mass breakout, and the Warsaw ghetto shouldn’t have fought their Nazi captors?
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@liron @RabbiMivasair to me, that's an extremely unnatural reading of your original tweet
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@jacobcd52 @RabbiMivasair Killed causally downstream of Hamas laying a human shield trap and having the trap go off, yes. Killed by a bullet from an Israeli, no.
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@Alien_AV @liron @RabbiMivasair So, since Oct 7, >100x more Gazan 5yos have been killed by Israel than the reverse
Tbf, Liron's tweet was about number of 5yo-killers, not of killed 5yos. But that seems unimportant.
Also, I only counted deaths since Oct 7, but I expect all-time numbers tell the same story
3/3
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@Alien_AV @liron @RabbiMivasair Wikipedia says 36 Israeli under-18s were killed on oct 7. Assuming uniform age distribution, that's two 5yos killed on oct 7. Almost all Israeli civilian casualties of the war were on oct 7, so the number has probably not risen much.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie…
2/3
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@liron @RabbiMivasair seems false? certainly false if you replace "shot" with "shot or bombed"
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@RabbiMivasair You’re more likely to find someone who shot a 5 year old to death in Palestine
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@RatOrthodox industrial revolution yearly gdp growth was low single-digits. it seems plausible that RSI "only" leads to, idk, 20% yearly growth. my probability of such an outcome hasn't really shifted in the last couple years
parameter count/sample efficiency overhangs are indeed worrying
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Roughly because labs plan to do recursive self improvement, this is looking like it will work, and models are nowhere near parameter count efficient.
Furthermore, because civilization is retarded and cannot notice it has one industrial revolution ready to go before it loads 25 more in the queue
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@tszzl if someone writes a bad contract, and I publicly say "that is a bad contract", and then they change the contract, I don't think I need to publicly retract my criticism.
(though maybe those arent the "previous statements" you were referring to, idk)
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