Brangus🔍⏹️

@TheVatStack I do think it’s like y’know, not great ethically or something. I realize it’s a joke, but like y’know, there probably are some people who think that ai safety people want to genocide the ais or whatever, and so I don’t love the sign for that reason.

against who

@NathanpmYoung Don't forget to count the negative qalys

I am absolutely happy to judge McKenzie Scott on the QALYs she delivers. I'm gonna make a website about it. It will have numbers and voting. go on, make my day.

@edavidds Sort of! But I didn't start it with a capital letter because I am saying it mostly for humor and not mostly because I am carefully making an assertion about what EAs in DC are in fact like.

@RatOrthodox Is this true?

dc eas are so funny because when the other dc people are like: “huh, ea seems kinda sus and shadowy” they’re like: “oh shit, ok, everybody, make sure nobody knows you’re an ea”. gee i wonder why they treat ea like a shadowy cabal trying to sneakily infiltrate the government

@dlbydq yeah so true, the environmentalists always hide that they're environmentalists, and the libertarians, and the democratic socialists, and the neocons, and the yimbys, and the nimbys

@RatOrthodox ok but that's just how everyone in dc is

@Vaishsg7 @robinhanson Obvious is relative, but mainly I'm just asking Robin which he thinks.

@RatOrthodox @robinhanson Is the answer to this supposed to be obvious in some way ?

Much of the error of the economic normal view is seeing AI as our descendants and not as a rival alien species. Sure colonizers sometimes trade w indigenous people or carve out some special reserves for them, but crazy to expect them to not eventually wage war and disempower you.

@rayefull (I’m still a transhumanist.)

Are there any canonical examples of people going from deeply techno-optimist (like technology can solve all things let it rip) to classically ai safety pilled? I was telling someone of my path recently and they were like, uh

And of course, actually, this isn’t the real mistake they make. The real mistake they make is not understanding the alignment problem.

I think ten Sams who are as motivated to build it as real sam is to run oai would fairly obviously succeed. I separately think that sufficiently advanced ai of course has individual mind control powers, but it wouldn’t need it, just kill almost all the humans in the first few months using nanotech and then use your remaining faithful cultists to finsih the robots in the robot factories.

Well I don't think Sam has mind control capabilities. What would need to be involved here are a lot of land acquisition issues, convincing legislators, convincing electors, these sorts of things, probably some environmental permitting things. It is a challenging task. Maybe a bunch of Sam clones could do it but that's not obvious to me. In some sense this is an appropriate comparison because arguably Elon has tried to cut the cruft in this project with the Hyperloop idea and that went nowhere. I realize it's a bit of a different take on it but it's not obvious that top entrepreneurs could achieve this. I think there is kind of a selection effect here at play where people don't get into politics because achieving these types of outcomes is so much harder than in the private sector

Could a superpersuasive AI get a high speed rail line between SF and LA constructed for under $50B and under 10 years with existing construction technology?

@panickssery I can tell you that if I had been a Native American, I would be pretty pissed.

@RatOrthodox are native americans even worse off than a hypothetical where they were isolated forever, or until now, etc?

@robinhanson Do you think the conquistadors and the indigenous south americans were more similar to each other or future AIs and internet citizens are more similar to each other?

@RatOrthodox But AIs did not arrive here from some distant star; we are making them in our image.

@AdrienLE I mean fairly close? Like I think that if ten Sam Altmans tried to get this done in under ten years and they had a 50B budget, and they had like v strong personal incentives to do this, I think they would succeed, and so I think a sufficiently persuasive AI would succeed

Would you say that it is because a sufficiently persuasive AI would have individual mind-control levels of persuasion (implying that this is a level of capability achievable by AI, which may be true but is a contentious issue), or because it could do this some other way (this other way may be contentious, at least some other people don’t see it it seems)? x.com/AdrienLE/statu…

@TylerAlterman I am very into the plan of you spending the next two weeks focusing on training your authentic on video muscles if you care what I think about it.

update on my experience at Please Don't Kill Us, a video creator bootcamp for AI Safety in the Bay Area

@rayefull Me.

@ZyMazza Oh hmm, it does seem different to me in that case! I mean, I think the last time I aired dirty laundry about Holly or whatever, was the last time that she talked to a journalist about me.

@RatOrthodox yes I have a practice of liking every post I reply as a courtesy. Is this supposed to be some sort of justification of constantly airing your community's very embarrassing dirty laundry publicly? Because I "liked" the post?

For the record, when I met Sam Kirchner I was married to Holly Elmore, Holly and I got into an intense many day fight because I thought he seemed unhinged and unthoughtful. I wanted her to not work with him. Holly thought he was great and was very angry at me for being judgmental

@ZyMazza and yet.

@RatOrthodox do you pause ai people ever do anything besides air interpersonal drama on the TL?

@kayesowhat I was sharing a particular screenshot of a tweet by her that I decided to respond to.

@RatOrthodox Unsolicited advice: I thought this was random drama until I read the article and saw it also referenced and quoted you, and Holly’s part was given a subtitle about divorce. It’s unfair this keeps getting dropped on your plate. Perhaps share that context rather than her photo?

@panickssery @claudeai I totally agree with this.

@RatOrthodox @claudeai the "civ" as a whole, whatever that means, should not get to veto, by whatever process you have in mind, the release of Claude Fable 5 . . .

We're extending Claude Fable 5 access on all paid plans, as well as keeping Claude Code’s weekly rate limits 50% higher, through July 19.