Jaconet1967

@Fibonazzo 😂

I've done the math and I'm 95% long $EQR.AX and 5% in cash. 🍀 The cash is there just in case there's another dip before the Q1 (Q3 FY2026) earnings report so I can buy more. #Fibonazzo #Tungsten

@DebraG_Robins I agree. I’m in.

This puppy has a spring in her step

@MM8_Medallion @invdiary

Webinar replay now available Medallion Metals (ASX: MM8) MD Paul Bennett outlines Medallion's strategy to become a near-term gold producer in Western Australia, targeting ~80,000oz per year. 👉Watch the replay: youtu.be/s8cIdPMa7aI #ASX #MM8 #Gold #Mining #Investing

@METhompson72 Where do you see Thungela share prices going in short to medium term?

I own Yancoal, Thungela and Terracom. My target for thermal coal prices is $250. Throw coal names at me you like.

@BroadLuis Where do you think we are on the 1-6 list?

The Order of a Commodity Cycle The biggest mistake investors make in commodity cycles: expecting everything to move at the same time. But markets usually rotate in a very specific order: 1️⃣ Gold 2️⃣ Silver 3️⃣ Gold & Silver miners 4️⃣ Copper 5️⃣ Copper miners 6️⃣ Juniors Each asset plays a different role in the cycle. Gold usually moves first, reflecting monetary conditions. Silver then accelerates the move. Copper later confirms the industrial phase of the cycle. And the biggest leverage in mining stocks typically arrives late in the cycle, not at the beginning. Commodity markets rarely move all at once. They rotate. #Commodities #MarketRotation #MiningStocks #Macro

@shanaka86 @TheLastDegree How do you see the evolution of Silver. Following Gold ? Do we wait for physical action in phase 2 before pm equities gain a bid?

Gold should have exploded when the Iran war started. It did not. Understanding why it did not is more important than the price itself. On February 28, when US-Israeli strikes killed Khamenei, closed Hormuz, and destroyed twenty Iranian warships in forty-eight hours, gold spiked to an intraday high of $5,390. By March 4, six days into the largest Middle East military campaign since the Gulf War, gold had dropped approximately 4 percent in a single session. It sits at $5,093 today. Net gain since escalation began: 2.3 percent. Brent crude surged 13 percent. Jet fuel gained 140 percent. Gold gained 2.3 percent. The question every institutional investor is asking is why. The answer is the dollar. When oil spikes 13 percent, the mechanism it activates first is not the safe-haven gold bid. It is the inflation expectation channel, which strengthens the dollar, which tightens real yields, which is the one macro environment where gold historically underperforms. The Fed faces its impossible trinity: oil-driven inflation demands rate hikes, growth shock demands rate cuts, war financing demands monetization. Markets read the inflation signal first and bought dollars. The dollar roared. Gold waited. This is not gold failing. This is gold being temporarily outbid by the dollar in the first phase of an inflation shock. These two phases have played out in sequence in every major energy-driven geopolitical crisis: phase one, dollar strengthens on inflation expectations; phase two, when the sustained economic damage becomes visible and recession probability rises, the dollar weakens and gold surges because the market shifts from pricing inflation to pricing monetary debasement. In 1973 the second phase took roughly six months and produced gold gains of 73 percent. In 2022 Russia-Ukraine it was compressed because the war was geographically contained and the Fed moved fast. In 2026 the relevant question is whether the war duration extends into the second phase window. Goldman Sachs has already moved. Their end-2026 gold target is $6,300, conditioned on prolonged Hormuz disruption. The probability architecture built from eight days of evidence suggests a 50 percent probability of a one-to-three month conflict. If Goldman’s scenario is correct, the current $5,093 level represents a $1,207 gap between today’s price and year-end target that the market has not yet priced. That gap exists because the market is still betting on a short war. The evidence is betting on a long one. The $5,000 support level is the number every technical trader is watching. The market is currently defending it. If it holds through the Fed’s March 18 meeting and the UN Security Council session on March 10, the base for the second phase move is intact. Gold reached $5,062 on February 20, before this war. Thesis Seven predicted $5,000 by Q2. It arrived four months early. The war that arrived February 28 did not create this gold move. It inherited a gold price already priced for civilizational insurance and added a geopolitical premium that is still settling into its correct value. At $5,093 with Goldman at $6,300, with the Fed paralyzed, with Hormuz closed, with the Israeli Finance Ministry absorbing 9.4 billion shekels per week, and with the dollar’s inflation-driven strength carrying a self-limiting fuse, the gap between what gold is priced at today and what the evidence says it should be priced at is the temporal arbitrage that resolves when the market finishes pricing a short war and starts pricing the one actually being fought. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@Silver__Santa What is your timeframe 🎅? Physical gold & more particularly silver has seen s9me weakness; equities more. I’m sure this will react in two phases physical first then equities second. Do you have a timeframe or is it a move a critical spot level that suggests ‘off we go’?

Don't worry. We all know where this is going. #GOLD #SILVER

@Silver__Santa Unfortunately it’s not closed at $2 but the speed the deal got upsized speaks to high demand which will in turn move the price higher

@jaconet1967 Maybe yes

$TSK.V $TSKFF - TALISKER RESOURCES LTD. $33M CASH + $52M PP = $85M CAD. MCAP $332M CAD. This cash will get them sooner to 200,000 OZ Gold. I think it's a good thing.

@TheApeOfGoldST Quite interesting today’s move in the big boys $CDE $PAAS $HL $AG

When you see #Silver -2% and #SILJ +2% the same day it is usually a sign that a big move is coming the next day. Note: “Usually”, not always.

@hess_charl30735 @Silver__Santa Talisker? Although bought deal now $52m upsized from 40

@Silver__Santa Who?

$TSK.V $TSKFF - TALISKER RESOURCES LTD. Private Placement $2.00 Current Price $1.84

@_Yux__ $MM8 & $BML both financed ls developers. Producing 1H27, 2H27 respectively assuming no hiccups

Upgraded $RIO.to from late stage developer to junior producer in my portfolio compartments. Was already low, but now I have a gaping hole in late stage developer compartment. So, what is the most undervalued late stage developer in the market at the moment?

@baroninvestment Question is 9 year LOM a benefit? Im sure I recall reading (MRE?) a throughput of 250kt mentioned. Implying a 4 1/2 year LOM was achievable & higher NPV on Pepas.

OMI, OROSUR MINING - Greenwood Capital Partners highlight the recent MRE as "actually net positive". They increase their target from 28p to 35p/share. Snippets from the note: Sweet as a nut. We model a low capex, 25kozpa operation over a 9-year LOM generating an NPV10% for Pepas of US$313m with a 528% IRR at spot gold ($5,050/oz) and AISC of c.US$800/oz based on benchmarked unit costs which translates to US$105m EBITDA and US$67m FCF pa at spot pricing. NPV10% is US$196m (IRR 335%) at LT gold $3,500/oz which we use for valuation purposes. Low capex drives the attractive IRR. "Shorter LOM but punchier everything else. The main impact on our conceptual model is that less ounces shortens the mine life. Thus, instead of modelling a 13-year LOM, we now model 9 years based on steadystate production of 25koz pa assuming 5g/t Au head grade. We’d much rather take higher grade than longer LOM and, in any case, the back end of a DCF model adds little value considering the maths of discounted cashflows >10 years. The corollary of the higher grade is that the required ore throughput is less whilst capex stays low, opex comes down and cash margins are higher. Bravo!" Robust. Resource estimates tend to be conservative so it’s not unreasonable to envisage a few more ounces. The opex assumptions are conservative and the MRE was done at US$3,000/oz gold. Although a lower cutoff grade likely won’t change much (see grade-tonnage curve) due to geology and the pit shell, a top-cut would have been applied during estimation and we know that Pepas hosts some very high-grade portions. However, for material upside, we look towards Pepas North, understanding the structural setting of Pepas to hunt down a repetition of circumstances that generated and transported Pepas to its current location. Big year ahead. Work is already underway on the PTO, the required technical work plan to allow construction at Pepas. Exploration is returning to full pelt with the rig now drilling Pepas North and a 2nd rig arriving imminently to start crossing T’s prior to an MRE decision at APTA where we see +1Moz potential (historical 38,000m drilling). Airborne mag will be flown at El Cedro (large porphyry potential) and APTA ahead of concerted regional exploration push whilst Pepas quietly progresses through development phases. Over in Argentina, drilling is nearing completion at El Pantano - an early-stage but vast project. One to keep an eye on, the shares likely turn hard at some point.

@TheApeOfGoldST Just picked up a starter holding.

$GRSL.v - GR SILVER MINING Soon people who sold out of #VZLA fear will have to chase. +76.47% needed to repair this drop still. Strong book, sexy chart entry and indicators in the bottom = winning play. #Silver

@BULLReturns 🤣

@jaconet1967 The cap will triple from here....royalty and contractor funding is all the rage. You seem to be stuck in 2024 with $3000 gold spot.

If $AUMB is a #10bagger then $MCI.v is a #30bagger ....the set up is a repeat. Sunk mill capex, mine restart late 2027 and AISC < $1850 at optimised run rates. #gold

@BULLReturns Not saying it can’t be done…. just that those making loans look at the amount rel. mkt cap, even though IRR looks v strong

@jaconet1967 We write cheques at >200% IRRs, don't you?

@mypreciousilver Assuming silver buyers paying a premium to $HL, $CDE would seem to have missed out and to a lesser degree $PAAS. I’d be surprised if the disparity continues in Q1. PAAS & CDE seem likely to make sure they benefit if silver premium buyers return?

Paper silver price vs physical silver price: Hecla released their Q4 report last evening, and the number that catches my attention is the realized silver price, it was $69.28. ‼️ That is 26% higher than the paper silver spot price In previous quarters Hecla also had a higher realized silver price than the spot (3-7%), but not the 26% we saw in Q4. That makes me wonder: Is the mining sector now moving partly away from the silver spot price, negotiating higher prices? Or is it due to price being settled in the end of the month in a quarter with sharply rising prices? Source: d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719413…

@beg2dfr @Silver__Santa @zelenscie The MRE was framed around open pit and only to 100m depth. We only know the discovery hole was mineralised all the way to 150m depth with ave. Grade of 3gpt. So it could certainly extend further. But getting planning for deeper may take longer. Perhaps shallow=produce in 2 years

@Silver__Santa @zelenscie Absolutely. Huge property still not part of mre if im not mistaken

I tripled my position in $OMI.V - OROSUR. Bought at - 50% from recent peak. 🍀

@Silver__Santa What silver stocks did u lighten up in? I’ve topped up 3-4 gold producers including $JAG

I doubled my position in $AGLD.V - AUSTRAL GOLD, and in $ORV.TO - ORVANA MINERALS, and I tripled my position in $JAG.TO - JAGUAR MINING. Hereby moving some capital from Silver to Gold. I also went into some cash for #PROTECTION.