jaden

@peterfuller23 LAUNCH

Introducing Tracelight 1.0 After six months, we are live with 5 of the 10 biggest management consultancies in the world, as well as PE funds and asset managers with over $600B in AUM. Tracelight is the best AI add-in to Excel. In testing against the leading alternative add-ins, Tracelight 1.0 was: - The most accurate - 2x faster building analysis on average - 20x faster at finding human errors in complex spreadsheets We’ve been building with early adopters and enterprise partners for months. You can now reach a completely new level of performance in Excel. That’s why today we’re proud to launch a major new version. To celebrate, we're giving 1 month of Tracelight Pro for free to anyone who comments LAUNCH below or TAGs a friend who needs this

@BillAckman @elonmusk @SpaceX @SECGov @Tesla You mention several times there are no fees—what is the benefit of this transaction for Pershing Square?

.@elonmusk, what if we took @SpaceX public by merging it with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SPARC) a new form of acquisition company that was approved by the @SECGov. We could distribute SPARC special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs) to @Tesla shareholders so that all Tesla shareholders would have the right to invest in the SpaceX IPO, or they could choose to sell their SPARs to someone else. This would reward loyal Tesla shareholders with the opportunity to invest in SpaceX (or with cash for their SPARs), while totally democratizing the IPO process. In addition to receiving common stock in SpaceX, exercising SPAR holders would also receive Pershing Square SPARC Holdings II SPARs, which we could use to take @xai public at the time of your choosing. Pershing Square would due diligence on behalf of all shareholders and would commit $4 billion of capital to the IPO at a fixed price per share. SPARC has no underwriting fees, founder stock or shareholder warrants, and we would waive our right to receive SPARC sponsor warrants. The result would be an IPO without any underwriting fees or dilutive securities issued. @SpaceX would go public with a 100% common stock capital structure and it would not incur any transaction costs other than modest legal fees which SPARC would pay from its cash on hand. We could raise whatever amount of capital you would like by adjusting the exercise price of the SPARs. Assuming we issue 0.5 SPARs for each share of Tesla, there would be 1.723 billion SPARs outstanding including the 61.1 million SPARs that are already outstanding. Since one SPAR would be exercisable for two shares of SpaceX, the SPARs would be exercisable for 3.446 billion total SpaceX shares. So, if we set the SPAR exercise price at $11.03, SpaceX would raise $42.0 billion, $38 billion from the exercise of SPARs and $4 billion from Pershing Square, or if we set the SPAR exercise price at $42.0, SpaceX would raise $148.7 billion, $144.7 billion from the SPAR exercise and $4 billion from us. SPARC is indifferent to how much of the shares are primary versus secondary shares giving the company maximum flexibility. We could do due diligence and enter into a definitive agreement committing to the transaction within 45 days, at which point it would be certain that SpaceX would go public at a fixed valuation subject only to SEC approval of the merger proxy/registration statement. Our commitment to the transaction would not be subject to market conditions. We could start work right away and announce the transaction by mid- February. It only seems appropriate that the most innovative and efficient rocket company in the world should go public in the most innovative, efficient, and fairest-to-Tesla-shareholders manner possible. To Mars and beyond! What do you say?

@neilksethi Thank yo ufor all the amazing data you post—I'm learning so much from it. How does this flow correspond to market prices?

Goldman updates their SPX CTA flow estimates which improved slightly for a flat or up tape this week but otherwise broadly deteriorated, with again all scenarios this week seeing at least some modest selling, and now all scenarios with selling over the next 1 month, with significant selling in either case expected on a "down tape" (~-4% move for 1-week, ~-10% move for 1-month): Over the next 1-week: - Flat tape: -$0.2bn - Up tape (+2 s/d): -$0.9bn (lower due to higher volatility) - Down tape (-2.5 s/d): -$11.6bn Over the next 1-month: - Flat tape: -$15.4bn - Up tape: -$0.2bn - Down tape: -$56.7bn

@nicochristie would love a code!

Introducing Shortcut — the first superhuman Excel agent. Shortcut one-shots most knowledge work tasks on Excel. It even scores >80% on Excel World Championship Cases in ~10 minutes. That's 10x faster than humans. Our early preview is live. Just comment for an invite code.

@0xblacklight i’ve used a pod 4 for about a year now and love it! solves the hot/cold sleeping dilemma with a partner, and i fall asleep a good bit faster due to the temp. the sleep tracking doesn’t work as well as a watch or ring though.

Is 8sleep actually that good Do any moots have one and want to sell me on it

*UPDATED* (and still true) When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now: There are 21 U.S. markets where Class C rents are falling at least 4% YoY. What is the common denominator? You guessed it: Supply. Of those, all but one have supply expansion rates ABOVE the U.S. average. There's no demand issue in any of these 12 markets. They're all among the absorption leaders nationally -- places like Austin, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Raleigh/Durham, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Charlotte, Orlando, etc. But they all have a lot of new supply. Simply put: Supply is doing what it's supposed to do when we build A LOT of apartments. It's a process academics call "filtering." New pricey apartments are pulling up higher-income renters out of moderately priced Class B units, which in turn cut rents to lure Class C renters, and on down the line it goes. Less anyone still in doubt, here's another factoid: Where are Class C rents growing most? You guessed it (I hope!) -- in markets with little new supply. Class C rent growth topped 4% in 22 of the nation's 150 largest metro areas, and nearly all of them have limited new apartment supply. Most new construction tends to be Class A "luxury" because that's what pencils out due to high cost of everything from land to labor to materials to impact fees to insurance to taxes, etc. So critics will say: "We don't need more luxury apartments!" Yes, you do. Because when you build "luxury" apartments at scale, you will put downward pressure on rents at all price points. Spread the word.

Things you can do to change your life:

In new NBER paper with @MA_Bolhuis, @juddcramer and Oskar Shulz, we argue that the unprecedented increase in borrowing costs is crucial to explaining the low consumer sentiment of the last two years. 1/N nber.org/papers/w32163

@skullnbonesgame also, the speed debuff during helm wager and cutthroat cargo is very frustrating—keep players on an equal playing field!

We’re still monitoring the issue and working on additional ways to improve your experience with Ambushers such as Plaguebringers or Rogues so keep your feedback coming.

Some content that was implemented at launch smuggled their way into our patch notes instead of the new ship. We added back the info on the new ship and removed the incorrect section about the Ambushers, but let us add some clarification 👇

@skullnbonesgame Ambushers (both Rogue and Plague) appear too frequently. the Rogue ships appear to do more (and far too much damage), while taking far less than before. in addition to nerfing strength (and spawn frequency) of the Ambushers, allow interaction w/ Manufactory during Ambush combat

The automotive industry is going through its version of the “Quartz Crisis. ” What was the quartz crisis? In the 1970s, mechanical watches were becoming obsolete in the eye of the consumer with the advent of the quartz movement watch. The quartz movement was cheaper, more accurate, and easier to manufacture than the mechanical movement. The quartz watch led to a decline in mechanical watch market share, with its significant companies facing massive financial struggles and even bankruptcy. The result? The consumer benefited from an objectively better product that became ubiquitous and available to all with the mass adoption of the quartz movement. However, the timepiece aficionados also benefited from a refined, focused, and celebrated mechanical watch at every price point. Win/win IMO, automotive will go through the same process, with EVs going mass market and becoming superior in every facet compared to an ICE vehicle. But, for those who care, there will be specialized ICE products that will still thrill and provide all the tactile and analog driving experiences you could ever want. If you love cars, the future is bright.

I do not have an opinion on the current thing because I do not have enough info to take an informed position.

just saw an ad for Comerica coworking spaces. without research, are they: a) making the most of office leases after WFH reduced their needs b) salvaging repossessed offices after loan defaults, or c) tryna get that sweet WeWork-esque tech company valuation multiple

@sonalibasak you mention that "learning how to parse NAIC regulatory filings, where insurers are required to disclose their holdings, as well as an understanding of capital rules and the finer details of loan origination" would be helpful. what are some resources you'd recommend to do so?

Latest newsletter took me back to my reporting roots…. Some ways to understand the financial magic behind the insurance play in private equity bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@LateNightAutos thank you for explaining! i didn't realize the cap only applied to purchases, that's intriguing.

@jadenwarren $80,000 tax-credit cap if purchased* if you lease it, doesn’t matter.

I absolutely love Volvo. I am super excited to see one of these in person. Maybe even get the opportunity to drive one. I feel like this is going to be a hit. Leasing I still would say is a MUST over purchasing.

10/ Want to learn about this in more detail and read an in-depth example? Check out my post on Substack below: open.substack.com/pub/jadenwarre…

9/ Key Takeaways: • Consider all costs, not just gross margins. • Carefully estimate indirect and probabilistic costs. Adjust your assumptions as you get more data • Address causes of probabilistic costs—educate customers and invest in quality accompanying infrastructure.

8/ Infrastructure surrounding a product can make an otherwise good product bad. For instance, poor UIs in the crypto world, or frequently broken (non-Tesla) EV chargers. Address this by choosing products with good infrastructure, or invest in the surrounding infrastructure

7/ Clearly educating against misuse reduces the odds of a customer creating a self-induced problem, where the company is technically in the right, but good customer service dictates taking care of the problem regardless. This can be costly

6/ Educating customers on what to expect from your product and how to use it reduces the time spent on troubleshooting, and the rate of dissatisfied returns

5/ Probabilistic costs are tricky to forecast but crucial to understand. Lack of customer education, product misuse, and poor surrounding infrastructure can all lead to hidden costs. Educate customers, discourage misuse, and invest in quality surrounding infrastructure.