James Vogl

RIP Chris Smith. You were a larger than life character - physically & metaphorically. Full of charisma, charm and warmth, you gave me my first start prop trading at Manro Haydan, and so many wonderful memories. No doubt the Tignanello is flowing in heaven boss. Will miss you.

@PhilGalfond Have you read the Chimp Paradox by Steve Peters? Entire book about the human logic vs the chimp emotions and how to manage the chimp. @chimpmanagement

@GmanPoker @DougPolkVids Tried to pre-order but not available in the UK FYI.

Its time I tell the full story...

@Camp4 Yeah I so often need to do a 3 finger pull up away from the climbing gym.

This girl is functionally stronger and far more capable than 99% of meathead gym bros. Real life rarely demands absolute strength—it demands mobility and strength relative to body weight. Fit is as fit does.

@Alexfeinberg Thanks!

This is why the worst people on this app are in the UK

@johnarnold @grok which book is @johnarnold referring to?

I learned a ton about how China works, which coincidentally is the name of the book I'm reading now that details the history and significant role the government has played in promoting growth. It feels the US is moving more towards that model than vice versa these days. 20/20

Just returned from my first trip to China, mostly looking at the energy and robotics industries. Fascinating. Random observations, both business and general, below... 1/x

@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @pulte Great idea but could it make sense to port the mortgage to the next property the owner buys rather than to the next owner of the same property? (Assuming a similar property price the lender is then taking the same risk on the ability of the borrower to make payments).

President @realDonaldTrump and @SecScottBessent, and @pulte, I have a simple idea on how to lower mortgage rates and spreads: One of the unique features of U.S. conventional mortgages is that they are prepayable at any time without a penalty. While this feature is attractive for homeowners, it comes at a significant cost as buyers of mortgage backed securities (‘MBS’) require a significant increase in spread to compensate them for giving the borrower the option to prepay at anytime. Why don’t Fannie and Freddie also offer non-prepayable mortgages where if the borrower wishes to prepay the loan, he would have to pay a prepayment penalty? I asked one of my friends who is an expert and large investor in MBS what the estimated savings today would be on a 30-year Fannie/Freddie mortgage if the borrower would be locked out from prepayment other than by paying a penalty? He estimated that the savings would be about 65 basis points. So a borrower could have a choice: Obtain a 30-year prepayable mortgage at today’s ~6% rate, or at a 5.35% rate, but with the obligation to pay a prepayment penalty if he/she refinanced in the future. The loan could also be made to be portable so that if the home is sold, the new borrower could assume the loan and no prepayment penalty would be owed on a sale. While the ability to prepay is a valuable option, locking in the 65 bps savings upfront over the life of the mortgage may be the difference between the borrower being able to afford the home and not being able to. You could imagine that there could be different versions of this product where the lock out would be for 5 years, 10 years etc. (with different levels of savings for each, the longer the lockout, the greater the savings) and the borrower could custom design the mortgage and its prepayability to meet their life plan. As you know, commercial mortgages work this way. Why couldn’t the same approach be used for home loans?

Happy 2026. How do I short fireworks?

I’ve never experienced anti-semitism in my North& Central London bubble. But leaving my gym in a local shopping centre last night there was a public Chanukah celebration going on & I thought “is that the cleverest idea?” & felt unsafe for the first time 😢 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Merry Xmas… ?

Frank Gehry's most iconic work - in pictures bbc.com/news/articles/…

The last hand I played with Susanna Gross was in March 2024. I remember because she wrote this brilliant article about it. Susanna I hope you draw a better partner in heaven. Can’t believe you’ve gone at just 58 😢

@factor_members Hoping or hopping?! Both probably bad practices.

@British_Airways I wasn’t able to check in online or self check as Avios tickets linked to child paid ticket. I was directed to line H25 at T5 by BA staff. Waited 1.5 hours. No one ever came to warn last check in. Then told to wait for manager. Took over an hour then told I needed to buy new.

@jamesvogl Hi James, I'm sorry to hear you missed check in. We do have self-service machines at Heathrow and there are staff nearby to offer any assistance if needed. Did our airport staff offer to rebook you under the ticket rules, or were you advised you needed to buy a new ticket? Beth S

@factor_members 👍

@factor_members Love that you’re straight back at the charts!!!

@factor_members Wish you the best Peter.

@factor_members Hi Peter, how do you get to the 33.82 target please?