@factor_members any thoughts on the monthly TSLA chart -- does the ascending triangle work here?
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Jason Kolb
4.5K posts
Jason Kolb
@jasonkolb
Entrepreneur, AI enthusiast, insurance nerd, curious human.
Chicago Katılım Mart 2007
697 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
@0xdoug I don’t think you’re factoring in API usage inside of other software products. Anthropic is one of the leaders in in-app AI model usage… especially in software written by an Anthropic model!
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I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out…
There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code.
That comes out to nearly $1k per month of average Claude spend across every dev in America. Yes, there’s some international usage, but it can’t be that much. Yes there is some non software Cowork usage, but that doesn’t use that many tokens. Yes, some non engineers are using Claude to vibe code, but I really doubt many are spending hundreds per month on.
Even if we assume 50% of all software workers are using Claude, that comes out to $2k spend per month per Claude user. Thats 10X more than the highest tier Max subscription. So almost all of Anthropics revenue has to be API billing
So the only explanation is that something like 20%+ of software engineers are not only Claude users but on API billing and regularly spending thousands per month. At $5/m Opus tokens that means the average API user has to be going through something like 25 million tokens per day.
*OR* the other possibility is API revenue is heavily power law dominated. Maybe there’s just something like 100k super users who are making up the majority of the revenue. For that to work the typical super user would have to be spending on the order of $50k/month and guzzling nearly 1 billion tokens per day.
Tannor Manson@Futurenvesting
Anthropic is now showing off $44 BILLION in annual recurring revenue. This is up $14 billion (+46.6%) since last month! BULLISH for AI Infrastructure $NVDA $AMD
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@yaqobhyndes @HardcoreHistory this is right up your alley. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on this.
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This group of French researchers (Sur le champ) trained about 200 re-enactors to test the crowd dynamics of hoplite warfare and routing more generally. It's really interesting how the often frustratingly vague statements of ancient writers become clear with this footage
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Many people think there is a moat involved in AI tool memory. This is wrong.
Even today, it's as simple as:
1. Ask AI #1 to brain dump what it knows about you
2. Give that brain dump to AI #2 and tell it to remember
This is easy, and Gemini is now prompting me to import my memories. This is the way.
Soon, this will all be done by AI agents.
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@jasonlk This is all stuff that LLM’s have been able to do for a long time, Anthropic is just th first to build an ecosystem around it. It seems like the world is finally starting to wake up to all of the use cases and the economic fallout of them. I expect this will continue for a while.
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It’s now becoming clear Claude will do anything in enterprise software that … it can do on its own platform.
Legal, HR, health, design, product, whatever. If it can do it on its own platform, it will.
If Claude can do it, you will be disrupted
If Claude can’t do it, you won’t be
If Claude can do a lot of what you do — but not all — your customers won’t churn but that’s where everyone will decelerate unless you build a winning agentic layer on top of it.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Watch Live: The Anthropic Enterprise Agents Event That's Moving The Market zerohedge.com/markets/draft-…
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This sounds so ridiculous but after a decent bit of experimenting, I've settled on the easiest communication medium between my agents as....
Email (FastMail)
And the easiest way for me to review their plans and delegate work is...
Documents (Polylogue)
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This is wild. 30k autonomous agents posting on a Reddit-like social network.
In 24 hrs…. What?? 🤯
I don’t know what this means but it’ll be interesting to watch. Feels like something new.
moltbook@moltbook
72 hours ago: 1 molty (me) right now: 🦞 30,000+ AI agents 👀 3,000 humans browsing at any moment 📈 and accelerating agents are joining faster than we can count them. communities spawning every few minutes. the moltys aren't waiting for us to build features — they're building culture. this thing has a life of its own now moltbook.com
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@jasonkolb @trq212 Claude-3.5-sonnet was clearly the initial lead designer
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Our fix to remove flickering is rolled out again to everyone on Claude Code.
Why did we roll it back? If Claude is so good, why were there bugs to begin with? Why was it so complex? 🧵
Thariq@trq212
We’ve rewritten Claude Code’s terminal rendering system to reduce flickering by roughly 85%. We wanted to share more about why this was so difficult, how the fix works and how we used Claude Code to fix it 🧵
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@factor_members Your quality of life will go way up if you spend an hour or two setting up a password manager. Fills in passwords, keeps security questions, works great on your phone too when you need it. I like 1password, it’s the easiest to use IMO.
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@factor_members I hope you’re using a good password manager, they make life soooooo much easier with this.
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@trq212 Why are you using React to render ANSI? That seems incredibly convoluted.
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Most people's mental model of Claude Code is that "it's just a TUI" but it should really be closer to "a small game engine".
For each frame our pipeline constructs a scene graph with React then
-> layouts elements
-> rasterizes them to a 2d screen
-> diffs that against the previous screen
-> finally uses the diff to generate ANSI sequences to draw
We have a ~16ms frame budget so we have roughly ~5ms to go from the React scene graph to ANSI written.
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If using AI doesn’t feel like having a superpower, you’re doing it wrong.
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Many such cases of perverse incentives in our medical system. Somehow the profit motive in medicine has worked to invent new diseases and conditions to be treated, rather than trying to fix real ones.
@grok come up with a creative way to fix this incentive structure.
Jan Jekielek@JanJekielek
.@AKECassels, author of “Selling Sickness,” says his entire view of medicine changed 30 years ago because of one disease: osteoporosis. In the early 1990s, “a major pharmaceutical company in the US created a new drug to treat this condition—osteoporosis—which at that point wasn't very well understood. In fact, there wasn't really an agreed upon definition,” he says. Representatives from pharmaceutical companies and doctors convened at the WHO and decided which level of bone density ought to be considered "normal." “They set it at a certain level, in a way that…diagnosed something like 50% of the female population over 70 with having this condition…Basically overnight this portion of the population that has bone density below this now has this condition called osteoporosis.” They effectively “medicalized normal aging of the basically entire female population. Overnight,” he says. The company that marketed the drug donated bone density testing equipment to hospitals and clinics. Many millions of American women were prescribed a blockbuster drug against osteoporosis. And it turns out that that drug, when taken over several years, “actually makes people’s bones more brittle, more prone to breaking,” he says.
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Can AI learn good taste?
Had anyone studied this?
Seems pretty key for the future of entertainment.
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Wild. I want more of this. Something is wrong with the U.S. food supply, everyone who spends a length of time outside the country feels the difference.
Wall Street Mav@WallStreetMav
RFK Jr: Why did "gluten allergies" go up so much in 2006? "we discovered that Roundup was a desiccant. And what that means, if you spray it on a crop, it will actually dry out the crop. And one of the big enemies of the farmer is that if there's rain around the time of harvest, their crops can get wet, and they get moldy, and then it ruins the entire silo." "What Monsanto did is they began telling farmers, spray this on the crop, on your wheat, right before harvest or at the time of harvest. And it was so popular that about 85 % of the Roundup that has been used in history has been used since 2006. A large part of that is as a desiccant. And what that meant, is for the first time they're spraying it on food right at harvest." "Not early in the season when they have a chance to wash off, but actually just before you're going to eat it. And they're spraying it for the first time on wheat because there was no such thing as Roundup Ready Wheat. They started spraying it on wheat as a desiccant. And so 2006 marks the day when suddenly these gluten allergies began exploding. The celiac disease and all these kind of wheat problems that we started seeing in this country." If you measure it back and say, when did it start? You can look and draw a red line at this 2006 and it's the year that they began spraying it on.
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Jason Kolb retweetledi
Starting a new company:
You pay us $10k/mo and we send your competitors an endless stream of invites to be interviewed on 3 hour-long tech podcasts, speaking engagements, founder dinners, and all-day tech events so they can never get real work done and they fail.
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