Jay Nicholl

1K posts

Jay Nicholl

Jay Nicholl

@jaynicholl

Dancing joyfully on the edge of the catastrophe curve.

London Katılım Şubat 2010
427 Takip Edilen111 Takipçiler
Alicia Smith
Alicia Smith@Alicia_Smith19·
“The $6 billion, originally frozen in 2018, had been due for release in 2023 as part of a U.S.-Iranian prisoner swap but the funds were again frozen by the administration of President Joe Biden following the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel”
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@PhillipsPOBrien @cthulhupotamus Cool. Zelensky calling out the US makes Europe happy, but if the US takes them seriously and cuts all aid will this be seen as a good move?
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@Pontifex “God does not bless any conflict.” Genuinely laughable.
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Pope Leo XIV
Pope Leo XIV@Pontifex·
God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.
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Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer@Keir_Starmer·
I was in the Middle East this week. Here’s why.
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
@DanGstl @RapidResponse47 Usually, defeating a great power in a war is considered evidence of being a great power. Iran is well on the way to defeating the United States.
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Daniel Goldman
Daniel Goldman@DanGstl·
Are you ok ?? It appears to me that Iran will emerge without any electricity or navy or Air Force @RapidResponse47 It appears to me they will live like Palestinians for the next 5-10 years ? It’s not April Fools day any longer - fool
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood

This all sounds reasonable, but there are two issues. First, it now looks as though Iran will emerge from this war as a great power, not a regional one. Secondly, might even end up with something like regional *hegemony* over the Arabian Peninsula. A stunning turnaround.

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Alexandre Jubelin
Alexandre Jubelin@alexjubelin·
Well I count also "surrender or face sudden death" for exemple, which somehow never makes it in the list, and certainly isn't about to happen. The point is that he's just saying a bunch of shit there, and everyone looks retroactively for this list of 4 — that doesn't mean that these were clear objectives from the start
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John Spencer
John Spencer@SpencerGuard·
Lol. Yes. Let's apply a little intellectual honesty and provide the full text of the speech where the reasons and objectives are stated earlier: President Donald J. Trump on the United States Military Major Combat Operations in Iran, February 28, 2026. A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted “death to America” and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops, and innocent people in many countries. Among the regime's very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days. In 1983, Iran’s proxies carried out the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American military personnel. In 2000, they knew and were probably involved with the attack on the USS Cole. Many died. Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime’s proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as U.S. naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lanes. It has been mass terror, and we are not going to put up with it any longer. From Lebanon to Yemen and Syria to Iraq, the regime has armed, trained, and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood. It was Iran’s proxy Hamas that launched the monstrous October 7 attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before. Iran is the world’s number one state sponsor of terror and recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested. It has always been the policy of the United States, and particularly my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I will say it again: they can never have a nuclear weapon. That is why in Operation Midnight Hammer last June we obliterated the regime’s nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. After that attack we warned them never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons, and we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. But Iran refused, just as it has for decades. They have rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions. Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland. Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if it ever had nuclear weapons as a means to deliver its message. For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will again be obliterated. We are going to annihilate their navy. We are going to ensure that the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces. They will no longer use IEDs, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to wound and kill thousands of people, including many Americans. And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It is a very simple message: they will never have a nuclear weapon. This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces. I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration, and there is no military on earth even close to its power, strength, or sophistication. My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to U.S. personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we are doing this not just for now. We are doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way. And we trust that with His help the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest military in the world and they will prevail. To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and you will have complete immunity, or in the alternative face certain death. Lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great and proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Do not leave your homes. It is very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass. May God bless the brave men and women of America’s armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you. youtube.com/watch?v=o-E7DI…
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Alexandre Jubelin@alexjubelin

Well this is one hell of a piece of sanewashing (accompanied by what we call in France "jésuitisme"), as the main problem was that there was precisely no clear war objective at first, as just about everyone pointed out. The good news for Trump apologists is that there can be therefore no formal failure to meet these objectives, as you astutely point out. Of course, the problem is that you cannot possibly have a sane strategy without them, as everyone found out. However, trying to display just a touch of intellectual honesty would force you to admit that when you do not formulate any objective, but finish a rather short speech by this passage — it's pretty obvious that the war is about regime change.

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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@alexjubelin @SpencerGuard 4. we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It is a very simple message: they will never have a nuclear weapon. You can argue whether they are achievable/achieved. But the original point was that theywere a) set out at the beginning and b) remain consistent.
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Alexandre Jubelin
Alexandre Jubelin@alexjubelin·
So where exactly are these clear objectives? The only one I can see is "eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime", which everyone knows is a lie — so you'll have a hard time convincing anyone that preventing something that isn't happening is an objective that can be measured. I'll even give you "they can never have a nuclear weapon", which : 1- Wasn't happening any time soon either 2- Can't logically be achieved ("never" is a long time) So, where are the clear and measurable objectives laid out in this speech ?
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@alexjubelin @SpencerGuard Comprehension problem? 1) We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground..  2. We are going to annihilate their navy. 3. We are going to ensure that the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@Danjsalt @clim8resistance Nonetheless, Starmer and Co opted for performative rejection rather than diplomatic comms. We can’t fucking do anything anyway, so we weren’t ever getting ‘dragged in’, chest poking the people that actually provide our security was and is dumb.
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@Francis_Hoar @AndrewBowie_MP @SCynic1 ‘LOOK CHRISTIAN ambulances, why do Christians NEED their own ambulances, they called it ‘St JOHN’ they aren’t even trying to hide their true nature. They are MOCKING us with ambulances for the faithful.’
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Andrew Bowie MP
Andrew Bowie MP@AndrewBowie_MP·
Eh mate…charities run ambulances in the UK eg the St John Ambulance? 🙄 They aren’t ’Jewish’ ambulances. They are ambulances provided by the Jewish community for *everyone*…which any rational person would think was great as it relieves pressure on the Ambulance Service. 🙄
British Bastard 🇬🇧@BritishBastardX

Just a quick one. Why the fuck do we have "Jewish" abulances in the UK? Am i the only one failing to understand?

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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@esrtweet @walterkirn Disagree, I suggest the majority of people don’t accept that beliefs actually drive decision making in ways that don’t match ‘accepted’ patterns. It’s unusual for non-believers to accept the believer truly will act in accordance with that belief in all circumstances.
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Eric S. Raymond
Eric S. Raymond@esrtweet·
@walterkirn This is not true. We believe that you believe. And that your belief makes you dangerously crazy.
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Walter Kirn
Walter Kirn@walterkirn·
Non-believers don't believe that believers really believe. It harms their understanding of the world.
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Bjorn Lomborg
Bjorn Lomborg@BjornLomborg·
UK "world leadership" on climate change has produced the world's costliest electricity prices The UK demonstrates how not to do a green transition No country is looking to the UK to replicate its climate shambles Oxford's Dieter Helm not holding back — great read
Prof Dieter Helm CBE@Dieter_Helm

Despite what politicians would have us believe, British energy policy is not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Read my latest analysis here: bit.ly/4hByPrA Sign up to my mailing list here: bit.ly/3IxFYY5. #sustainableeconomy

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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@redsteeze Are people genuinely posting these? Like not as parody? Because we’ve all seen the photos of survivors of the holocaust. To say they did not look like this is pushing the limits of understatement.
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Wibble
Wibble@NorthernArmyVet·
@LilyLilyMaynard @Jonnywsbell @FiLiA_charity That doesn't sound like a protest, it actually sounds like the targeted intimidation and harassment of women. Which is illegal.
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@sianberry @BrightonHoveCC I’m still trying to get my head around the idea that a feminist conference gets attacked and your response is essentially ‘well they were asking for it’.
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Sian Berry
Sian Berry@sianberry·
Events that inflame division and create tension should be guarded against and @BrightonHoveCC needs better policies for which events it will host in our council-owned venues. The choice of Brighton was clearly provocative from organisers and the problems caused predictable.
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@nealasher This is an unexpected way to be reminded how old I am, 2002 this copy 😜
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Neal Asher
Neal Asher@nealasher·
Back when Macmillan were publishing Gridlinked and The Skinner (A quarter of a century ago. Ouch!) a publisher from the US called Nightshade Books got onto me and asked me if I'd like to write something for them. Betweem Macmillan books I did and the results were Prador Moon and Shadow of the Scorpion. These books were first published in the US before Macmillan took them on in the UK. And now here's a fun fact: the initial title of Prador Moon was On The Edge of The Sand, riffing on the theme of the Edward Lear poem The Owl and the Pussycat. But Nightshade judged this a bit too sophisticated for the American readers. 😂 That being said, which is you favourite cover for Prador Moon?
Neal Asher tweet mediaNeal Asher tweet mediaNeal Asher tweet mediaNeal Asher tweet media
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Jay Nicholl
Jay Nicholl@jaynicholl·
@DanielJHannan Also - the ‘they’ here was a reference to observed reactions not individuals.
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