jefernandez

@thinkingshivers can’t believe I didn’t think of THE novel about this: Quijote

@thinkingshivers Stoner - Williams, Rabbit Run - Updike, American Pastoral - Roth.

There has never been a great piece of art about coming to terms with mediocrity. If the art is great, the artist wasn't mediocre. If the artist was mediocre, the art wouldn’t be great.

@ContrarianCurse What are your bottom cycle plays rn? 🤨

I think a major source of alpha and something markets get wrong over and over and over again are capital cycles Like trucking is back? Holy fuck you don’t say. I thought they’d all be zeroes! I get that earnings go down like 70% but the stock being 2/3 terminal shouldn’t, in theory, go down that much, but often they do Huge opportunities if you have the stomach

@VERYKOOLLUKEY healthcare stocks

Realistically what even is there to invest in on a 5-10 year horizon? S&P at ATHs Gold near ATHs Treasury bills barely above the rate of inflation Housing market is cooked The dollar is cooked WHERE DO I PUT MY MONEY

@bobspaysubstack thanks, I would’ve thought fisv was higher quality than those two given their PIN network. But I guess the market doesn’t care about that.

I see $fisv $gpn and $four as being viewed as relatively the same, legacy acquirers that are highly doubted by the market. I believe they are viable businesses that will re-rate eventually. I sold $fisv earlier this year to take tax losses and moved the proceeds into $xyz $four and $adyen. I think $fisv is similarly undervalued but don’t own primarily b/c I was optimizing my own unique tax situation.

Order of preference in Payments today: Adyen $ADYEN Block $XYZ Visa $V Mastercard $MA Think Global $GPN and Shift4 $FOUR could double from here, but they've got a LOT of work to do!

@amitisinvesting April 30 rebalancing, should bounce tomorrow if not we have probelms

what type of pump and dump are the market makers doing with big tech today after earnings 😂 $META worst day since October 2025 $MSFT back to $400 $AMZN quickest $14 reversal I’ve ever seen $NVDA taken down below $200 looks like $GOOGL is the market’s favorite holding onto it’s +5% pretty crazy swing from yesterday

@PythiaR No crying in the casino

It’s crazy how exactly wrong this is. $META

@Biohazard3737 Shareholder rotation. Growth full porting semis; still too expensive for Value

@ariaradnia You are right man, buying FICO since they have the highest margins and a sick operating margin graph 👍

Pro Tip: Don't buy declining companies $UNH

@Restructuring__ Did he actually say this?

Wow, that was bad David Tepper was not pleased

@TMTLongShort Step 1: Be retarded Step 2: Do random shit. ??? Profit?

Step 1: manufacture a war Step 2: tie China directly to war Step 3: raise tariffs on China with full war-time authorization Step 4: publish study showing transhipment of Chinese supply through other countries Step 5: regain ability to tariff these other countries as a matter of national security Step 6: decouple Obviously war has not yet been declared. Just one of many ways this can all play out 😉

@the_zack_zhu It would be a good start if anyone here valued MELI as if half their income came from Latam consumer loans.

Has anyone here valued $MELI, $SE, or $NU using local-currency discount rates instead of a U.S.-based discount framework? For example, discounting Brazil cash flows using a BRL rate based on Brazil’s local interest rates and risk premium, rather than a USD rate.

@Ashwinreads good news for Agilent

some of the hottest companies in the world right now are the CDMOs producing GLP-1 peptides at scale

@DouthatNYT A new global hegemon interfered in enacting the ceasefire. The biggest difference is that France/UK actually did take control of the Suez.

Just a comment on the limits of Suez analogies here. What happened at Suez was that the U.S. issued a veto on British and French action, demonstrating that they could no longer conduct an independent foreign policy under the shadow of the American hegemon. With Iran and Hormuz, the (provisional) veto on Trumpian escalation came above all from domestic political constraints, the likelihood Americans would not endure ground-operation casualties or higher gas prices for the hazy objectives of this war. You can argue back and forth about what that domestic veto means for American empire, but being constrained by internal politics is meaningfully different from having your foreign policy plans vetoed by a new global hegemon.

@WisedelCapital DHR

Other similar companies in quality to $COST, $ISRG, $ROL, $MCO, $SPGI, $TDG, $CTAS or $FICO? Trying to increase my current watchlist of best in class companies

@MrMojoRisinX this is great, wish you had a higher rez version though.

@yummyCenturyEgg Are you still short MCO/SPGI btw? Asking earnestly

For whom the Bell Curves - $DHR "Any man's death diminishes me... never send to know for whom the bell tolls [curves]; it tolls [curves] for thee." - John Donne. $DHR is the mac daddy of compounders. The gold standard. All you fake compounders need to bow down to the 8th wonder of the world. This chart looks horrible though. Anyone close can help me understand what the issues are?

If you actually have duration, the best thing you can do right now is to tune out the noise on this place. Maybe buy a few stocks you like, go live your life, and come back in a few months.

@MercuriusFilius Knowing my audience is PE, the first one.

How would you answer this common Silver Lake interview question?