jeff

@_Sgr_A_Star @jiahanjimliu Got it on the definition. Bummer it’s not verifiable though. They report contracted ARR ($3.1B) but not installed-GPU ARR, which is what $3.7B measures by year-end. Nebius gives monthly revenue so you can audit. Think IREN will start disclosing, or stay a mgmt-only number?

IREN doesn't definite ARR as last month of period x 12. That's the way other neoclouds define it. IREN defines ARR as the revenue over the next 12 months the installed GPUs would generate at their contracted rate. Their current guidance is to exit 2026 with an ARR of 3.7B - of that, 2.4B has already been contracted. The 2.4B does not include the 680M ARR from the NVDA deal because the NVDA deal is not part of the 3.7B ARR. Their total contracted ARR currently sits at 3.1B, but again, the NVDA deal is not included in the 3.7B guidance.

Investigating $IREN's Q1 Revenue Miss Working off @_Sgr_A_Star is a financial sleuthing we can uncover how IREN's PG (Prince George) ramp is going. While PG's GPUs were ordered in Fall 2025, they arrived into Q1 2026. By end of Q1 2026, all but 1200 GB300s of had arrived. This is quite late compared to the order time and delayed arrival ate into slack time for burn-in and commissioning, after which they could generate revenue. Although IREN was at 33.6m AI revenue, their RPO showed 300m ARR run rate which is 75m per quarter from PG. With all GPUs besides 1200 GB300s arriving at Prince George, we can expected 500m ARR by end of Q2 and assuming a linear ramp of burn-in and commissioning which means Q2 AI Revenue will be ~100m. Q3 will be H1 handover which combined with PG will be 1B ARR for Q3. However ARR is the yearly run-rate. If H1 handover is in July and finished commissioning and burn in at end of July then only 500m ARR * 2/3 months / 4 quarters-per-year will be showed in Q3. Thus for Q3, we can expect 83m from H1 and 125m from PG for a total of 208m Q3 2026 revenue. Q4 2025 Revenue: 17.4m Q1 2026 Revenue: 33.6m Q2 2026 Revenue: 100m Q3 2026 Revenue: 208m Why is revenue so low compared to ARR? Even for other Neoclouds that had higher priority on Nvidia GPU deliveries, ARR is much higher than revenue. Compare these 2026 ARR forecast for each Neocloud and their Q1 2026 quarterly revenue: $CRWV | 18B-19B ARR | 2B $NBIS | 7-9B ARR | 399m $IREN 3.7B ARR | 33.6m What's apparent is that the earlier you are in your ramp, the father you are from your ARR target because the growth is doubling every quarter. All these companies will see more than double revenue growth in H2 2026 because GPUs are back-staggered for all these Neoclouds as real GB300 ramp is H2 2026. IREN's ramp has been painful as it has been hardest hit by HBM shortgages but with Nvidia full partnership, 2027 look to get better. IREN is a late mover in expanding their fleet but the advantage is that more of their fleet will B300/GB300s or newer compared to H100/H200 for competitors.

@jiahanjimliu Congrats on the baby! Question on ARR: do you think the $3.7 ARR target is contracted? Or actual arr? (i.e. Dec AI revenue * 12)

5/8/26: Portfolio Positions $IREN: 94.97% | 18.99% Under CC as of Today IREN remains my largest position. My wife will deliver our first child in June and I am adding some short/mid-term trading to my repertoire and am taking defensive stance on market for Iran War + "sell in May and go away", so this morning I sold covered calls over ~20% of my IREN position. I also sold off many of my other small positions and explain my defensive position in cash position below. Covered call is July 17 expiry before next earnings and $75 strike since I do want premium out of it. I see Mackenzie getting signed in next 1-2 months and possibly H5-6 extension with H5-6 handover in 2027. With teardown space being prepared for demolition to build H5-6, datacenter specs will be locked in and contract will be signed before datacenter specs are locked in. With Anthropic signing a bare metal GPU deal with with $AKAM and $AKAM publicly offering RTX 4000/6000 (1), demand does look very tight right now. I think re-rating will continue when IREN sees bump in AI revenue. I expect handover of H1 and either handover of H2 or GPU delivery+power on of H2. I expect all of PG 125m/quarter revenue to show up too. If IREN can hit 3.7B ARR it would bolster their rerate and give credance to their 2027 guidance. With 1.210MW of build out in 2027, I expect 2027 ARR to be 12.1B + VR200 and GPU price increases. CRWV is trading at 62B + 35B debt load so 97B enterprise value with 18B ARR guidance, NBIS is at 44B not including convertibles with 8B ARR guidance. Note that H1-4 is under racked since it was originally designed for VR200 but got GB300 instead so there will be extra power at Childress. I was also wrong about ATM. ATM has been tapped will likely go fund Spain acquisition and 10% of Marantis which had 10% unaccredited investors and would have to be bought out with cash instead of stocks. IREN have 2.6B cash on hand but likely keep a buffer and try not to go below it. Cash: 3.27% Iran War has sparked again and this weekend and next weekend are risk factors as Trump may try to close out war before he tries to juice up markets for mid-terms. The term "sell in May and go away" means that many fund managers sell or take defensive position and go on vacation which will dampen volatility to both downside and upside. Selling covered calls on IREN is a play on multiple confluences including this one. So far early spring has been weak for 2024, 2025, 2026 so market seems more rhythmic and algo driven - lower vol summers is probably self reinforcing as fund managers buy hedges for the summer. TSLA: 1.57% FSD is tangibly ramping up and will be seen in multiple cities. FABs are really hard but Elon has some on his moonshots. Long consolidation too. IBRX: 0.14% Out of all my small positions, I keep a starter position in this one that I bought in the 4s. x.com/jiahanjimliu/s… OUST: 0.05% It's a misconception that Elon doesn't like Lidar. He doesn't like Lidar for FSD but personally chose Lidar for SpaceX docking program. Lidar is great for robotics and weaker self-driving players will use lidar and look to have path to commercialization. I fully believe in camera only approach for FSD but that doesn't preclude me from investing this as a robotics play. Shout out to @daniel_koss for putting this one on my radar. Sold previously starter sized positions in: ASTS, ASPI, KRKNF, NUAI, SOFI. - See reasons of raising cash. Also I thought best time for ASPI and KRKNF to make a move up was Iran War amid supply chain and national security boosts but it hasn't moved up.

@adamyounggolf D1

Do you want to get to scratch? Say D1 below and I'll DM you the webinar.

Final holiday giveaway! Tickets to ANY Pgatour event. Players, WM Phx open, Pebble, you name it, I’ll get you 4 tickets to the event. You can even caddie for me in the pro am IF you want. Comment which event you might want to go to (not final), repost, like to enter.

@Mike_kim714 Players

@alexhillman Would love to try! Been enjoying the recent deep dive videos

Agaijs my better judgement, enough people have asked about trying my custom Claude Code exec assistant app that I'm considering a waiting list.

@jiahanjimliu @MarkosAAIG Cool work! In your price targets, how are you thinking about future dilution from capital raises to build out the additional sites?

$IREN Financial Model Update Sentiment has recovered a little today. Its important to look at the fundamentals and understand the situation of why the stock is down. We will also have an independent audit from @MarkosAAIG who is a day 3 $NBIS investor and runs his own fund in the Netherlands. We will focus on 3 stats: 1. Run rate revenue based on contracts and expected contracts by end of 2026. 2. Run rate revenue based on built out DCs by end of 2026. 3. Discussion of how media narratives of AI shift focus from EBIT to 5 year cashflow. 4. Price targets - I've made my model available for everyone to put in their own assumptions. All math is shown for transparency. jiahanliu.github.io/IREN-Community/ Model Updates 1. Dilution: 409.126m shares if price above $120 (1,2,3). 2. Dilution: 352.7m shares if price below $82 (1,2,3). 3. Colocation updated from 1.83m/MW-yr to 2.18m/MW-yr based on latest CIFR deal. 2026 Contracts Run Rate Revenue, Lower Bound with SW1 Colo Prince George: $500M/yr Mackenzie + Canal Flats: $1.00B/yr Horizon 1-4: $1.94B/yr Horizon 5-10: $3.41B/yr Sweetwater 1: Colo: $2.03B/yr Total Contracted Revenue = $8.89B/yr (4) Based on @davidwurtz IREN GPU calculator at iren.tools, the Canada figures I used from earnings report (1) are underestimated as management provides buffer. Canada are the highest margin sites as IREN Cloud sells directly to the end customer similar to $ORCL bare metal offerings or AWS EC2 P3-5 instances. Base case for Sweetwater 1 is colo, I'll provide a half Colo-IaaS scenario later. Note: To be conservative, I don't count BTC mining but IREN earns ~200m per quarter on paid off DCs and mining ASICs. IREN has a 1.5 PUE leaves a large buffer which should be 1.1 in the Winter and 1.3-1.4 in the hottest days of the summer which gives it ample room to spread their BTC mining across Childress and SW1 as flexible loads. We will see dips in BTC mining going forward until SW1 flexible loads are set up. 2026 Buildout Run Rate Revenue, Lower Bound with SW Colo and Conservative Build Rates Discussed with Markos how he wants to audit, and he wants to assess revenue on finish build out. We know Canada and Horizon 1-4 sites will be finished. I expect a SW 1 site to be signed in Q1 or Q2 2026 and with building starting by at least the beginning of April which will give 9 months. IREN doesn't build at full rate since GPU deliveries are the bottleneck. Nvidia expects GB300 deliveries to really be ramped up H2 2026. NBIS said it themselves that their New Jersey site expected the majority of the revenue start coming in H2 2026. A very conservative estimate is 50MW / month for SW Colo build out or 450MW IT Load which multiplied by 2.18m/MW-yr gives us $981m. Horizon 5-10 may partially retrofitted from Childress existing DC as IREN moves BTC miners to SW. Conservative estimate is 1/3 of H5-10 is ready for GPUs by end of 2026. Prince George: $500M/yr Mackenzie + Canal Flats: $1.00B/yr Horizon 1-4: $1.94B/yr Horizon 5-10: $0.97B/yr Sweetwater 1: Colo: $0.981B/yr Total Buildout Revenue = $5.39B/yr (4) 2026 Contracts Run Rate Revenue, Upper Bound with SW1 Half Colo/IaaS Prince George: $500M/yr Mackenzie + Canal Flats: $1.00B/yr Horizon 1-4: $1.94B/yr Horizon 5-10: $3.41B/yr Sweetwater 1: 700MW Colo: $1.02B/yr Sweetwater 1: 700MW Hyperscaler IaaS: $5.30B/yr Total Contracted Revenue = $13.17B/yr (4) 2026 Buildout Run Rate Revenue, Upper Bound with SW Colo and Strong Build Rates We assume Horizon 5-10 is a mix of retrofits of existing DCs plus new DCs with some of old DCs being used for BTC mining flexible loads. 5-10 is finished. We also assume 75MW build rate for SW1 which means 675mw IT split between Colo and IaaS. Prince George: $500M/yr Mackenzie + Canal Flats: $1.00B/yr Horizon 1-4: $1.94B/yr Horizon 5-10: $3.41B/yr Sweetwater 1: 700MW Colo: $0.73B/yr Sweetwater 1: 700MW Hyperscaler IaaS: $3.92B/yr Total Buildout Revenue = $11.5B/yr (4) Media Narratives It's important to introspect deeply into media narratives. The market takes advantage of the fact retail often cannot distinguish narratives that will impact fundamentals versus narratives that shake out weak hands. To make narratives hit hard, there is truth behind the narratives. OpenAI funding is rightfully questioned. IaaS is a double edge sword. If AI compute does sustained, GPU residual value goes into year 6 and because GPUs capex is such a high percentage of top line, even 10% residual value makes a huge swing in the contract economics. Jim Chanos want to depreciate DCs in 5 years incase AI fails. Yes if AI fails you shouldn't invest in any of the Neoclouds as much of the value from the first 5 years is in built infrastructure and real cashflow comes in year 5-20. This essentially makes IREN a time-leveraged bet on whether or not AI will succeed. However, not only has Mag7 gone all in but so has China and thus the US with powered GPUs being identified as the bottleneck. Profits are based on accounting which depreciates GPU over 5 years and DCs over 20 years. However, cashflow is based on being able to get the hardware today. However, the market rewards mature datacenter infrastructure like $EQIX, $DLR with very high multiples P/E between 41-67. IREN is a neocloud because Nvidia provides so much of the software infrastructure, companies like $PLTR, Tiktok, OpenAI are able to optimally bare metal GPUs from $ORCL (5). Poolside and HumeAI are able to optimally use bare metal GPus Price Targets Canada Only: $51.60 (50P/E due to very visible growth from Canada, 352m shares) Canada + H1-4: $78.21 (50P/E due to very visible growth from Canada, 352m shares) Canada + H1-4 + SW1 Colo: $147 (30P/E, 409m shares) Canada + H1-4 + SW1 Half Colo/IaaS: $178 (30P/E, 409m shares)

@IlyaAbyzov Great idea! Would be interested in trying

Working on Torch 🔥 Unified health record + LLM in one iOS app. Syncs records from hospitals, labs, Function, One Med, PDFs etc. Makes it simple & fast to get all your health data in one place + get LLM help making sense of it. Reply/RT for TestFlight invite. More below ⬇️

@Mike_kim714 @Binary_Defense @Titleist Go mike!

Masters Giveaway! Nothing crazy, just a couple golf shirts and some hats from the ANGC pro shop. (I know it’s super late but I’ve been busy 🤷🏻‍♂️) Only 1 winner and I’ll be picking today. I’ll throw in some of my stuff as well like the @Binary_Defense hat and @Titleist prov1X

@pitdesi In Australia merchant’s pass on interchange (incl diff rates for different networks). Wonder if that will catch on in the US.

V/MC reached an antitrust settlement with merchants to reduce interchange fees. & allows them to charge more for more expensive cards - they will be able to charge you more for that Chase Sapphire Reserve. This will reduce the amount of money that the credit / charge card companies make from interchange, impacting a lot of venture backed companies. Not sure how much but somewhere in the mid single digit percentage points loss of interchange revenue. I will be curious to see what the UX changes are to the consumer for this change. It makes sense though, a card can cost 3% more to a merchant than another card and they currently have no way of passing that through. Bad for consumers like me though.

@zacktKHOU @UMichFootball @CFBPlayoff @UW_Football @KHOU Go blue!!

“We’re going to have to play really good…” - Jim Harbaugh says of his team @UMichFootball ahead of the @CFBPlayoff National Championship against @UW_Football. @KHOU #cfpplayoff

@tommy_magill_ Much appreciated!

Merry Christmas Agency Owners! I'm giving away my agency infrastructure (pitch deck, metrics, agendas, processes, etc.). I'm talking about EVERYTHING. This is the exact system we used to start and sell our agency in a year for $1mill+. Like + comment then I'll DM you!

@Katzo60 Top 6 teams from last year have the hardest draws - using the draws to bring the top teams back to the pack?

For what it's worth these are my rankings of the 2022 NRL draw, with One being the hardest. I have weighted a number of variables such as the number of matches against last years top 6 and bottom 6, effect of Origin, venues and breaks between games to name the principal factors.

@LeagueEyeTest Awesome stuff! Is it the ending dot where the ball was picked up or where the player was tackled? Have always thought net kicking meters would be interesting, especially for long kicking.

Trying out something new. Mapping the start (organe dot) & finish (blue dot) of every kick from the 2021 grand final. One for Penrith and one for Souths. Assumes both teams running left to right.

@TrungTPhan my favorite: Detroit Lines vm.tiktok.com/ZMRsUAhG7/

So meta: the viral TikTok “logo redesigner ” did one for TikTok and now its the logo for TikTok’s official profile:

A few years ago after my dad died I was in a pretty bad place. Out of nowhere Jason Sudeikis sent me an email I REALLY needed . I’ve never shared it before (he said it was okay to do) but I just want people to know he did this. He really is Ted Lasso bit.ly/3icrhxf

@Katzo60 @AndrewVossy @sydneyroosters @FOXNRL @fanfoxleague @VossySEN I think he could still do this! youtu.be/PvD_jhQxzAY

@AndrewVossy @sydneyroosters @FOXNRL @fanfoxleague @VossySEN What about it @jgurr ? Do you think your Uncle Marty would be up to it still?

Seriously...the injury toll and retirements at the @sydneyroosters this year... Might be putting in a call to see if Marty Gurr is fit? @FOXNRL @fanfoxleague @VossySEN