The Rugby League Eye Test

Round 2 was the first time there have been more set restarts awarded than penalties outside of *that* 2021 season. By just how many may astound you. Plus expected point charts for every game rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/16/the…

@ReadingThePlay Consecutive possession is just too strong now. If you hold the ball you'll get some sort of repeat set every 3-4 sets

@LeagueEyeTest Indeed you did mate 👏

3, 4, 5 years ago you could make too many errors and still dominate and win #nrl if you had the stronger (and or marquee) team list. Roosters and Robbo used to bang on about it all the time. Not now in today’s game. Dominate the error list and 90% of the time you’ll dominate the loss list. First half tonight Roosters 6 Panthers 1

@Andrewmacca27 Is this your first time watching Andrew?

Where is the 2nd, 3rd and 4th bin, Sir?

@shaggy84329 In theory I don't mind them either. But not like this

@LeagueEyeTest Joey loves the set restarts smh.com.au/sport/nrl/no-m…

The Warriors may be taking advantage of it, but Andrew Webster has warned the NRL could be heading down a dreaded rugby union path of ruling confusion. Shout out to @LeagueEyeTest thiswarriorslife.com/p/webster-advi…

For NRL fans grappling with the changing game this season, it seems we're not alone. An excellent read.

@DarrinADurant Of total tries, 64% are from a repeat set Of all repeat sets, 17% of them result in tries Hope that makes sense

@LeagueEyeTest Can you further explain the two stats where “64% [of tries] are from a repeat set” but “conversion has stayed roughly the same [at] 16.9% this season”?

Round 2 was the first time there have been more set restarts awarded than penalties outside of *that* 2021 season. By just how many may astound you. Plus expected point charts for every game rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2026/03/16/the…

@MikeMeehallWood Not even three full sets before some sort of violation... I had that chart ready (plus pens per PTB too) but in an extremely rare instance of self-editing, I didn't use it.

Just to follow on from the 31.3 set restarts per PTB here - if you add the pens, it is an infringement of some sort every 15 PTBs. And yet, despite what is clearly, by anyone's standards, repeat offending... We have seen just two repeat offence binnings. 2!

@SnipersClubNRL Thankyou for sharing it!

@LeagueEyeTest Class - thank.u

@SnipersClubNRL @klaynwa 2018 penalty-athon lasted about 12 rounds

@klaynwa @LeagueEyeTest The roll the ball thing last season...

@fugazeyfugazi Probably, I don't pay much attention to the single game numbers though, and mostly use it to compare within positions. Over the course of a season it tends to evens out a bit more. Fully aware it's not perfect, just something for a bit of engagement

@LeagueEyeTest There’s an endogeneity problem in here, no? If you’re picking stats correlated with winning then this list will generally be the players in the teams with the biggest wins (or losses) that got their hands on the ball the most. Is it predictive in any way?

Top/Bottom 20 players for NRL Round 2 by the Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR). Apologies for forgetting to post these for Round 1. Will link the explainer in the next post.

Here's the Top/Bottom 20 for Round 1 as well. Wasn't going to post them but for a certain agenda driven section of my followers will probably appreciate it

@behind_th_8ball @MikeMeehallWood @Tedeschi8181 @ReadingThePlay @NRL That's far too sensible for them

@MikeMeehallWood @Tedeschi8181 @LeagueEyeTest @ReadingThePlay @NRL Refs should just award penalties instead of set restarts. If a team is making repeated infringements (offside when defending on their own tryline, hands on ball, etc) then introduce and use a 5 minute sin bin.

This is how farcical it has now become. #nrl @nrl Manufacturing the play (deliberate). 2026 is very different. There was a set restart awarded every 25 play the balls, down from one every 39 in Round 1. There has never been a round where that was below 29, and Round 6 2020 was the only other round below one every 39. For reference, not a single round in 2025 had an average number of play the balls per set restart below 40. Even 2021 was one every 39 play the balls. ⬇️

@Russel_Hansen Thank you!

@LeagueEyeTest KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK 👍🧠 I have never understood the obsession with a “faster game is a better game” - the 6 again is the most subjective, inconsistent “rule” in the history of sport. utterly ridiculous

If only there was someone who has done 6+ years of detailed analysis on this subject who could have been consulted to give them an alternate, independent viewpoint Shame no one like that exists...

Gee what a surprise!

@Tedeschi8181 @ReadingThePlay @NRL Will add that to my list of things to check after the first month of the season is done. Can definitely do it. I seem to recall from a few years back that most of them were given early (first 20 mins) then some more late (last 10 mins)

@LeagueEyeTest @ReadingThePlay @NRL Do you have any data on when referees (either overall or overall) are giving them in say 10 min periods. I’d have my last that more are given in first 10 than any other period. Telling me it’s not only rubbish but premeditated manufacturing.