Joseph Guinta

@TimyanBankAlert @MarshallFraser @HarvardWinters @PhilTimyan Finally free…

@TimyanBankAlert @MarshallFraser @HarvardWinters @PhilTimyan $CARE Carter Bankshares- A decent quarter? Consistency developing?

@PhilTimyan Have you ever looked at Hingham Inst. for Savings? Tough to argue with performance, but that price to tangible book is getting up there at 2.72. Curious to hear your thoughts

@BasilTheGreat Have been structural bearish the EU and it’s Common Currency since its inception…dissolve it. #EURExit

🚨GERMAN CHANCELLOR ADMITS EU IS A COMPLETE FAILURE Destroyed growth with insane bureaucracy and paperwork "Germany and Europe have wasted incredible potential" "We have become the world champion of over-regulation"

Essential Utilities shareholders should vote against the merger and the compensation proposal. $wtrg $awk @EssentialWTRG @BlackRock @Vanguard_Group

@EssentialWTRG $wtrg $awk American Water Works opportunistic acquisition of Essential Utilities does not adequately compensate the Essential Shareholders. The Board accepted a discount valuation, while CEO Christopher Franklin and his Executive team will be generously compensated.

@CedarStResearch I’m sure that Evan G. is watching.

Just my two cents because we’re going to see a lot of natural volatility in $AIG due to succession plan uncertainty. My take pre-market looks down near book value again. Near term, $AIG is set to grow the crap out of the top line. From renewal rights deals and minority acquisitions as much as $5B not including any organic growth plus they have a massive repurchase facility and likely alot of expected deal flow from Aon via the hiring of Eric. I’ll continue to be a net buyer when fear is creating sellers at these levels. Questions around Eric’s ability are definitely warranted. That being said he’s a A+ operator and a very well established name in the world of P&C insurance. $EG $2B GWP renewal rights transfer $EG discussion on acquiring LatAm book Setup a new syndicate for $300m GWP Convex deal which should lead to $2B

@BillAckman @elonmusk @SpaceX @SECGov @Tesla What do the Boards of both companies think? Has Elon commented? Perhaps that will follow in time.

.@elonmusk, what if we took @SpaceX public by merging it with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SPARC) a new form of acquisition company that was approved by the @SECGov. We could distribute SPARC special purpose acquisition rights (SPARs) to @Tesla shareholders so that all Tesla shareholders would have the right to invest in the SpaceX IPO, or they could choose to sell their SPARs to someone else. This would reward loyal Tesla shareholders with the opportunity to invest in SpaceX (or with cash for their SPARs), while totally democratizing the IPO process. In addition to receiving common stock in SpaceX, exercising SPAR holders would also receive Pershing Square SPARC Holdings II SPARs, which we could use to take @xai public at the time of your choosing. Pershing Square would due diligence on behalf of all shareholders and would commit $4 billion of capital to the IPO at a fixed price per share. SPARC has no underwriting fees, founder stock or shareholder warrants, and we would waive our right to receive SPARC sponsor warrants. The result would be an IPO without any underwriting fees or dilutive securities issued. @SpaceX would go public with a 100% common stock capital structure and it would not incur any transaction costs other than modest legal fees which SPARC would pay from its cash on hand. We could raise whatever amount of capital you would like by adjusting the exercise price of the SPARs. Assuming we issue 0.5 SPARs for each share of Tesla, there would be 1.723 billion SPARs outstanding including the 61.1 million SPARs that are already outstanding. Since one SPAR would be exercisable for two shares of SpaceX, the SPARs would be exercisable for 3.446 billion total SpaceX shares. So, if we set the SPAR exercise price at $11.03, SpaceX would raise $42.0 billion, $38 billion from the exercise of SPARs and $4 billion from Pershing Square, or if we set the SPAR exercise price at $42.0, SpaceX would raise $148.7 billion, $144.7 billion from the SPAR exercise and $4 billion from us. SPARC is indifferent to how much of the shares are primary versus secondary shares giving the company maximum flexibility. We could do due diligence and enter into a definitive agreement committing to the transaction within 45 days, at which point it would be certain that SpaceX would go public at a fixed valuation subject only to SEC approval of the merger proxy/registration statement. Our commitment to the transaction would not be subject to market conditions. We could start work right away and announce the transaction by mid- February. It only seems appropriate that the most innovative and efficient rocket company in the world should go public in the most innovative, efficient, and fairest-to-Tesla-shareholders manner possible. To Mars and beyond! What do you say?

@michaeljburry @Ricardo_Celini Agree. He was spot on in 1999. He bought $AAPL down the road once he had the people that could understand it. You could have waited another decade before $MSFT was buyable.

@Ricardo_Celini I believe Buffett was also responding to the valuation of Microsoft and other big tech of the time. He was getting beaten up in the press about not being in this stuff. ANd he gave a very nuanced answer that was not anti-tech at all.

This is well worth 3 minutes and 15 seconds of your time. buffett.cnbc.com/video/1999/05/…

@CedarStResearch @slamcandie @mindthelongterm Evan's name will continue to be tied to companies lead by former (Greenberg Schooled) AIG employees. Both $AIG and $HIG would be in his wheelhouse, while their current CEO's might prefer a bit more independence ... for a while.

I would think a lot stock, maybe raise some debt $CB is only at ~22% debt to equity. Can push it to maybe 30%. I remember when Evan was making a lot of unsolicited bids to $HIG that ultimately went nowhere but he did drive the stock up. $AIG as I've said is very cheap right now. Would be wild to see another Greenberg running it. Big middle finger for Hank.

$AIG with a nice +6.5% run on the day. Atta boy. If you told me in 2009 that I'd have a ~5% allocation to $AIG today I'd probably tell you your crazy.

@CedarStResearch Agree that it was too complex for anyone but Hank… or Evan to run. Same went for $C / Weill and $GE / Jack at the time. Complex behemoths built and run by geniuses. Virtually impossible to manage without them.

@joeguinta Agreed Sullivan was particularly awful / asleep at the wheel. Only Hank knew how to run the old AIG incredibly complex entity. Liddy was a funny 5min.

Folks will make me suffer through an $AIG write up. Knew adding them to the poll would be a mistake. Do I start with the Spitzer era and finite reinsurance, Joe Cassano (everyone remember the financial products division?), do I go back to the Cornelius Vander Starr days and the weird statues at Morefar or do I fast forward past Duperrault and Benmosche days and jump into Zaffino. Can I at least skip Corebridge?

@CedarStResearch Im an $AIG fan. I feel that they finally have the right leadership at the top (haven’t since Greenberg.)

@joeguinta Makes sense, haven't tracked $BOW that much lately in all honesty. Looked at them, but I like what I saw in $AIG $HG and $PLMR more.

Took a long look at $BOW today (full disclosure not a shareholder nor do I have a position on the company), have a few thoughts. I think it dips below $25 before we see any sort of rebound - I see it dipping close to $24. Market could tell me I'm wrong (I'm okay with that) or prior year development could trend better than modeled (see comments below), but I see some continued multiple compression for a few different reasons. (1) Excess Casualty is growing +30% - will likely hold over the next few quarters due to market conditions. Rates up considerably still, loss cost trends seem to still be outpacing rate (always a tough line to turn a underwriting profit - history typically tells us it's a break even product / float product). Professional liability grew +23% last quarter and according to the CEO "commercial public D&O is driving more than half of our growth" - read any article and you'll find out that the Public D&O rates fell off a cliff so not very confident in that growth personally. Healthcare "claims made" grew a staggering +39% last quarter, no insights from me other than from my experience that's tough business per NAIC data, that being said it seems like there's plenty of that business for them to put on the books. (2) Baleen Specialty is still in it's infancy, on a NWP basis it grew $2.1m in Q1 and $2.5m in Q2 and around +20% QoQ. % Growth is up a lot, but total dollars is still very early innings. Worth watching to see how this continues to ramp against the likes of $KNSL, $HG, $ASIC etc... it looks like it's all SME GL Contractors, hard to read into it too much right now but if the product offering expands it's something to watch as growth trends could change quickly. (3) Reserve development is still largely modeled based on 3rd party actuary "market data" due to the portfolio's infancy per CFO "In Q4, we'll get updated industry information from our third-party actuaries, which, as I mentioned, that kind of drives most of our loss picks because of our limited history." As a result their rates "could" be above the market average and their could be positive head winds in the development as their results develop further and potentially deviate from the market averages.

@CedarStResearch Raising non-equity capital was scheduled for Q4.

Their growth has been pretty high and their underwriting leverage is high at ~126% last I checked on an LTM basis, so I'm not surprised they needed to issue debt to raise capital as it was probably putting some pressure on their risk based capital ratio. Likely needed it if they want to keep growth where it is.

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@stoolpresidente #Baller

I Just Bought A Ton of Spirit Airlines Stock (I Am Not A Financial Advisor) bars.tl/3500491

@SPACMAN17 Can you DM me on this?

Additional 39M shares traded 8/27. I neglected 210M of $KVUE-WI that also traded. Combining both results in 371M left to be sold. Still looking like ~2 weeks at minimum for a bounce in $KVUE

@SPACMAN17 Thus Arbs can continue to set up the Trade today? 8/18?

$JNJ / $KVUE - I'm estimating the exchange ratio is around ~8.034x. Using closing prices, the return opportunity is ~$1,100. JNJ/KVUE shares will trade funky the next 2 days as HFs can continue to play the deal. For retail, we just have to sit tight until next Monday 8/21.

@carlquintanilla I agree with this assumption. To borrow an old football rule, "watch their feet and not their head (mouth.)" The Fed will talk hawkish but not move again on rate increases in 2023. The data says hold. #FOMC

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. the Fed is done here. .. We continue to see a soft landing .. we continue to look for the Fed to hold the peak rate at 5.1% for an extended period before making the first 25bp cut in March 2024.” [Zentner] #FOMC

@zerohedge @BergenCapital Re-instated the Uptick Rule would be right.

@zerohedge @BergenCapital A Ban would be bad for markets. No doubt.

"BUCKLE UP – the White House says it's monitoring short-selling pressure on bank stocks." - Goldman Short-selling ban is imminent