Scarlett & Carter's BaPa

"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"

"US margin debt as a % of GDP is near all-time highs, but as a % of market cap, it is just getting back towards the middle of the post-2010 range. That said, the speed of the surge does look like Dot Com" @VrntPerception

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks, he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys cnbc.com/2026/07/20/jpm…

🇺🇸 Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65tn on opaque AI funding - Nikkei Asia asia.nikkei.com/business/techn…

Even more inflation just in time for the midterms. “Trump says he will impose 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods” wapo.st/4wXqDZu

@MSGCapital I remember being in the booth on the CBOE floor on the phone with a woman from Salomon Bros. when a well known model was walking around the floor. There were roars following her around the floor. I was asked by the woman in the phone what was going on. I told her.

I remember someone bringing the PENTHOUSE with Tonya Harding in the pit. And that was the 90s.

Credit is twitching again. CDX is back above its 50-day average after the longest streak below it since April 2024. Over the past 20 years, $SPX had lower returns during similar periods. Maximum drawdowns exceeded 50%. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/modeledg…

@davebudge The problem is that people don't realize that you are holding back.

Donald J. Trump is a scumbag demagogue.

This post on @zerohedge and the original post by @jeremyct are fabrications designed to farm outrage. I 100% agree the BLS has "substituted" a sizeable quantity of the grocery inflation out. But look at the image -- "Great Value" is a Walmart brand. And no other details are presented other than "Trust us bro" I decided to do the exact same and look at my receipts from 2020. On average, my grocery bill apples:apples is up 57% versus May 2020. This is roughly double the BLS math which claims 27% for CPI Food at Home. It's really unfortunate that the BLS views pork as a substitute for salmon, although I understand why. The CPI is reporting a cost of surviving, not a constant standard of living. This creates the sort of distrust that can be exploited to drive further outrage. And the answer to outrage is to "buy peace." But it really sucks that engagement farming is driving further distrust in our society. Really sucks.

@AnilVohra1962 He has found a new skill: being jerked around by Iran

@KASDad Trump doesn’t know what the word means. The most probable result is more death and destruction.

Threats. Probable result? Another ceasefire.

$SPY Some rather ineffectual action today. Now home on the range within a range. My memory stinks but as I recall July, especially the first half of the month, was supposed to be seasonally strong. Local weather is trumping long term weather patterns.

Finished @danielsilvabook's 26th book in the Gabriel Allon series "Ransom." Some authors get a bit lazy, Daniel Silva gets better. Incredibly well written, characters both new and old are well developed. The plot is incredible but credible. Problem? It ended too soon.

@MichaelASerio2 Agreed

@KASDad The worst part is that all of this expense $500 million to $1 billion) will be for a plane that might get used for a little over two years, instead of the usual 30 plus year lifetime of an Air Force One plane.

Sometimes a gift results in unexpected costs. nytimes.com/2026/07/19/us/…

@JohnDoss1 It's not unreasonable to think that China is using Iran as a proxy. I don't believe China will invade Taiwan though. My opinion is of little value even to me though.

@KASDad They’re advised by China imho. I would not be surprised if China enters Taiwan as our military infrastructure gets stretched. Xi’s an old man. It’s now or never.

Iran's strategy for exiting the conflict is clearly to delay a resolution as it puts increasing pressure on Trump politically as time passes. Thus while Iran certainly 'lost' the military conflict, it appears to be winning the resolution/peace.

$SPCX I am a broken record. Having watched/participated in the new issue (IPO) market going back to the 60s: Trying to bottom fish in a recent IPO below issue has lousy probabilities of success. Recovering the issue price has far greater probabilities of success.

@cheesetrader1 I do feel more like a moth than a butterfly at this point in life.

@KASDad We're moths to the flame.....

$SPCX What throwing good money after bad looks like.

Wondering what the increased use of alternatives to stock option grants means for insider buying and selling? Performance Stock Units, Synthetic cash settled equity, etc have increasingly been used by companies to reward executives.

A dying business sector and a slow death. Something about a picture is worth a thousand words.

Wow.