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mtn drew
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Another fantastic article from Quinn.
Read if you want medium term trade ideas or to calibrate your high timeframe macro perspective.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp
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@JustDeauIt @Globalflows RIP ur mentions
I agree with your take
It's pretty wild how strong HYPE trades when people are particularly excited about it despite seemingly being universally owned and loved.
I'm always extremely hesitant to short it.
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I'm a fan of both @Globalflows and HYPE, but think he's early here.
My take is that HYPE has been strong in the bear market (outperforming BTC) because of its token economics + the "TradFi/Oil futures" narrative.
But the reality is that Hyperliquid looks like a "risk-off" chain, just like the rest of crypto.
- Fees are down 56%
- Volumes are down 55%
- Open interest is down 44%
- Bridged assets are down 32% (very few inflows over the last 30 days)
The reality is it's the same 50k users on HYPE that we saw last year.
And we can see below that Oil futures volumes peaked on March 9 and have been in a downtrend since.
Meanwhile, HYPE is locally overbought (RSI 67) and running into resistance at its 50 WMA.
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Finally, buying a treasury company (PURR) in a risk-off bear market is a bit of a head-scratcher to me.
As far as I can tell, TradFi is not chomping at the bit for HYPE exposure. This is evidenced by HYPE's 93% gain since January 20th.
PURR is up 87% over the same period.
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Bullish long term. Fading the recent action.
Who has a counter take?
Capital Flows@Globalflows
Hyperliquid continues to bid Let me share several thoughts on how I think about the progression of my Hyperliquid adoption and how the entire system is being flipped in a way no one is positioned for: 🧵 First, we are moving in lockstep with the view I laid out in my pinned tweet. The idea is that tradfi assets migrating to Hyperliquid are creating an uncorrelated source of returns that is causing Hyperliquid to diverge from Bitcoin. This is happening perfectly as HIP-3 volume becomes a larger percentage of OI and volume. But this isn’t all that’s happen, it would be one thing if HYPE diverged from Bitcoin but it’s also rallied while global equity markets have sold off on geopolitical risk. We are literally seeing Hyperliquid benefit from global volatility. It is in many way exhibiting antifragility. Second, we are still waiting on Hyperliquid to be integrated into the US regulatory framework. Once this happens, even more flows will come on and arbitrage a lot of returns so that the funding rates collapse. Once funding rates for leverage on perps collapse, even more traders will be incentivized to enter the platform and get institutional level leverage as a normal person. Soon enough, you’ll have the same ISDA level leverage as @chamath Third, we have already seen many firms file for HYPE ETFs but we are still waiting for approval. It is this interim period of time that people are going to be aggressively chasing exposure to the HYPE token but won’t be able to obtain it until the ETFs launch. In this window of time, $PURR is likely to rally the most because it’s THE way for larger players to get exposure since they hold the most tokens of any DAT for traders to get size on. If options are listed on $PURR then this is likely to create a massive gamma squeeze. This is why the $PURR stock is my largest position right now and why I did an interview with the ceo. I’ll link this interview below. Finally, what seems to allude most people is how agentic trading for both systematic and discretionary traders is going to dominate and THE primary place to express this is Hyperliquid. When you have low cost of leverage, more leverage than a traditional brokerage account, and the ability to run an ETF type vault with Agentic Trading, the amount of money that will flow onto Hyperliquid is not conceivable. I suspect that this adoption will overlap at the same time that greater memory options are released for all of the AIs. When you have more memory, you’re able to have more informed iteration. Match this with the massive amount of compute to fuel this and you have a scenario for one of the largest productivity booms and liquidity injections in history. This doesn’t even account for the possibility of tokenization laws to pass where you can legally tokenize real world assets on chain. The upside is always inconceivable in foresight but obvious in retrospect. My entire goal right now is taking a bet on Agentic Macro Trading and Hyperliquid. If you want to follow everything I’m doing, you can get every update here: capitalflowsresearch.com/subscribe
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The market gods switched the game to easy mode yet CT still begs to be hurt again.
alex@kirbxbt
besides btc and hype what are we even supposed to bid man...
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mtn drew retweetledi
Do not introspect whatever you do don’t think for even one second about what you fund and if they’re good for the world, the only morality is IRR
Fund the slot machine credit card apps, you have no soul, you’re just a gooey computer with no meaning, the only morality is IRR
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@MuyaoShen @TheStalwart - MSTR/STRC black hole
- Was oversold, just needed to consolidate a while before we could get a proper mean reversion bounce
- short covering
- and yes, this time we have the ETFs absorbing supply instead of fraudulent degenerates puking supply into the market
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@TheStalwart Seems mostly ETF flows and DATs buying - so primarily institutional buying… nothing like the 2021 euphoria
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@BaggerWalmart @fiege_max Yeah. hard to understate, I think, how much of a boost these gave to Solana onchain shitcoinery and thus the price of SOL.
Unfortunately no match for infinite dilution from the memecoin insider grift woodchipper.
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As I follow-up to this tweet, I had a call with the Lighter team with one very clear recommendation:
Until regulations allow a DAO structure that treats $LIT as equity, you have to define a percentage of revenue that systematically goes to buybacks.
Then publish a report every single week with: (1) the wallet; (2) re-affirmation on the committed buyback plan; (3) how much was spent and $LIT purchased that week; (4) total purchased since buybacks started; and (5) evidence the $LIT was burned.
Less talk, more action.
Corey Hoffstein 🏴☠️@choffstein
$LIT: Dimmest Before the Dawn? Full disclosure: I'm a private investor in Lighter and continue to hold and stake 100% of my $LIT airdrop. Take everything below with that in mind. Below is my attempt at an honest audit of what I think went wrong and what's quietly working.
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Regressive policy
Contrast it to defi where you have 24/7/365 transparency
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The US Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year. The proposal is expected to be published as soon as next month.
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Oh for sure.
The crazy thing is it seems like Iran holds all the cards right now.
- Iran fires one drone at a boat anywhere in the Gulf and the strait is getting closer again. They know this.
- The US is letting Iran ship and sell their oil into the market right now!!
- So far only Iran-sympathetic countries are getting tankers through the Strait.
The US has not achieved its goals yet. I think the above is the new steady state equilibrium. Which the market is saying corresponds to WTI in the mid $90's.
Now the probability weighted outcome to monitor is whether the US gives up or continues its campaign, forcing Iran to become more desperate.
I wonder what limits Iran's leadership would go to in order to preserve itself. Based on my understanding, it's not quite a dictatorship, otherwise I would say there is to limit to what they would do to survive.
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@mtndrew x.com/i/status/20335…
Like, I get it, you don't want to bet against the admin. But if oil is trading above a hundred buckeroos in two months, we might have a problem
We might even see SPY print -0.7% on the day! 🫨
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
BESSENT: OIL PROBABLY 'MUCH LOWER' THAN $80 IN A COUPLE MONTHS
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