Jamie jones

@robprogressive policy settings being discussed in the Uk do not encourage investment

It’s shocking what’s happened to London Property since peak Mayfair down 57% Kensington down 54% Westminster  down 24% Belgravia down 18% Prime central Londond prices have rewound 13 years back to 2013 prices! If this is not the best opportunity to buy central London property then I don’t know what is

@blowingtom2 no you don’t expect those benefits while you are a non resident just that you don’t lose them when you come back

Let’s get this straight. You move overseas to work. You drop your Australian Tax Residency status so you can work overseas, but still expect the benefits of having those same status you dropped.

@DowningDraft @PaulEmbery yes stopping people leaving is the sign of a high functioning country like east germany

@PaulEmbery Inevitable but potentially solvable. Other countries use exit taxes. If gains were built up while you lived here, leaving shouldn’t make them vanish from the tax system.

Holding the country to ransom.

@Jacolope1 @cjoye it went from 17x earnings to 26x when my super performance tests were introduced in 2023. before that it was modestly expensive.

Love the logic and understand the fundamentals. However, CBA has been over-valued based on fundamental analysis for years. As have some other ASX stocks. It’s the weight of money influence that is very difficult to analyze. With the weight of money increasing - both from institutional funds and households, what will cause the correction? And when will it occur? Or is it simply that CBA’s share price does nothing or declines by 10% every year for the next 10-15 years?

Some important maths on inflated bank valuations got trimmed out of my AFR column - full analysis below… One reason the banks trade at globally anomalous multiples is the interaction between compulsory super flows and APRA's performance test. With the superannuation guarantee climbing to 12 per cent in July 2025, the system's $4.5 trillion in assets now dwarfs the ASX's $3.3 trillion capitalisation, and solid nominal wage growth has turbocharged inflows. Treasury itself concedes the Your Future Your Super test creates powerful incentives for funds to hug their benchmarks, converting rivers of new member money into price-insensitive, index-weight purchases of the banks that dominate the ASX 200. Accordingly, the banks' pricing premium reflects regulatory plumbing and flow dynamics, not fundamentals. That breeds vulnerabilities if and when investors refocus on intrinsic worth. A record housing slump coinciding with a default cycle and policy changes that hammer capital gains could usher in an enduring stretch of sub-par returns. It makes, for example, zero sense for CBA to be trading at 3.5 times book value. With the cash rate at 4.35 per cent and the 10-year Commonwealth bond yield around 4.5 per cent, a conventional CAPM cost of equity for CBA (with a beta of about 0.9 and an equity risk premium of 5-6 per cent) lands at roughly 9.5-10.5 per cent. Against a 13.6 per cent return on equity, CBA genuinely earns a spread of only 3.5-4 percentage points over its cost of capital. Plugging that into the standard residual-income identity, P/B = (ROE − g)/(COE − g), with long-run growth of 3 per cent justifies a multiple of (13.6 − 3)/(9.5 − 3), or 1.6 times book — roughly where NAB and Westpac sit, and less than half CBA's actual rating. So what does 3.5 times book imply? Inverting the same identity, the market is pricing one of two things. Either CBA's cost of equity is (13.6 − 3)/3.5 + 3, or 6 per cent — an absurdly skinny equity risk premium of 1.5 percentage points over the risk-free rate for an 18 times leveraged institution with a return on assets of just 0.77 per cent. Or, holding the cost of equity at a sane 9.5-10 per cent, investors are implying a sustainable ROE of 3.5 × (9.5 − 3) + 3, or 26-27 per cent — double what CBA has ever delivered and about triple the system's capacity in a mature, APRA-capitalised, low-credit-growth economy. Hold on to your hats... afr.com/markets/equity…

@GenXTruther72 because it has a duty to maximise returns for its members and therefore not invest in australia where the high taxes and sucking the entrepreneurial spirit.

Why has AUSTRALIAN SUPER invested $3.3 BILLION in India & not Australia??

@AmandaRishworth good bye jobs

#BREAKINGNEWS: The Fair Work Commission has made a landmark ruling that proposes UberEats and DoorDash Drivers receive a 25% pay rise and world leading minimum standards.

@John_USA_IL @Cernovich but it is one of life’s great joys

@Cernovich Traveling is not an important goal in your life.

While the 10% is a bit optimistic, this is a reminder to travel when you're young. 3.5 million at 62 is not worth what 1 million is at 42 or a few hundred grand at 32 is. Sliding scale re: money and youth / health.

@KDegerdon30481 holy moly this guy is level 8 stupid. I feel stupid listening to him pretend to know what he is talking about.

Normal people spend their money on day to day stuff and that money goes back into the economy. Rich people buy assets - non-essential stuff - and that money doesn't circulate thus doesn't boost the economy.

@TheKouk much of the wealth is tied up in their home!

ICYMI Austalian household finances are in fantastic shape: Huge levels of wealth relative to income and debt. It suggests the current slowing will be a soft landing rather than anything worse

@MetamateDaz some things were easier like buying a house if you had a job. other were harder like getting a job. youth unemployment was much much higher

Boomers love to say “we all struggled in our 20s.” No, you didn’t. You didn’t pay $3,000 rent and $10 for eggs You didn’t graduate with $100K in debt and no job security. Gen Z isn’t dramatic. We’re drowning.

@Ben_Davison1 a one off increase in prices is not inflationary. Inflation is caused by an increase in money supply. the government reigning in spending is the solution.

Just a reminder that the most effective way for governments to reduce inflation is to INCREASE income, corporate & capital taxes AND that increases to the GST makes inflation WORSE Stop listening to rich people’s demands to cut their own taxes while increasing yours, it’s a con

@yonann Anyone who talks about ‘speaking their truth’ shouldn’t speak.

Rainn Wilson says “fuck you” to Ricky Gervais for telling actors to shut up about politics "One of the things that pisses me off to no end is Ricky Gervais saying, ‘Just take your actor award. No one wants to hear what you have to say.’ It’s like, Fuck you. Bullshit" "Everyone gets to say what they want to say about anything. Gaza, climate change, politics. You get to say it if you’re a truck driver or a school teacher. We have free speech" "Why would you try to shame and silence someone from speaking their truth?"

@David__Osland and yet no where has it been a successful model.

Council housing literally pays for itself, with rents providing the revenue to repay the loans needed to fund it. Sorry if that doesn't please private landlords or construction bosses, but there you have it.

@TurgidmiasmaASX @AvidCommentator it impacts all those employed in wider property industry - retailers, builders etc. It impacts state governments who rely on property taxes so services fall. pretty much everyone impacted.

@AvidCommentator I would not buy my house for what the real estate agent says its WoRth. If all property dropped 50% would I care no , Besides the over leveraged who does a 50% drop in prices affect, I welcome it .

My word there is a never ending parade of people ready to tell Australians that all future generations forever must suffer To prevent a tiny proportion of the population experiencing realized hardship in the present in the form of lower housing prices.

@Ravenismeee hard no

Be honest: Would you reject a good woman simply because she has three kids with three different fathers?

@QuentinDempster @JEChalmers Heartless employers need to cough up more money.

@TheKouk yeah you could just confiscate some of those super assets - no problem

I am not sure people realise how trivially small the level of gross govt debt is, even as it hovers under $1 trillion. There are $4.5 trillion in superannuation assets; $12 trillion in residential real estate; $3.5 trillion in the ASX. Annual GDP is $3 trillion. I note that net govt debt is around $0.55 trillion - chook feed in other words

@clairlemon i have three kids. it is the greatest joy and i would of liked to have more. Third kid had some health issues that spooked us at the time but is fine now.

“There is still a lingering assumption particularly in the professional class that [you shouldn’t] have too many kids if you want to be responsible,” he says. “People haven’t updated their software about the ideas around overpopulation. It’s very clearly not the case. There’s no chance of us spiralling out of control — the new challenge is how do we deal with population decline in the long term.” -- @theandrewglover against anti-natalism news.com.au/lifestyle/pare…

@mamashami2 iran was offside pull your head in. Iran was clearly offside. technology suggested he touched it - it has sensors to prove whether it was touched.

@famexbt once people’s pay go up, it doesn’t later go down

One thing I've noticed: A coffee that goes from $4 to $7 rarely goes back to $4. Rent that rises from $1,000 to $1,500 rarely goes back to $1,000 Inflation becomes permanent the moment everyone accepts the new price. So workers ask for better pay to keep up. Then they're told they're hurting the economy. The economy for who?