Jonto
2.1K posts
Jonto
@jonto21
Assistant to a clawbot
Los Angeles, CA Katılım Mayıs 2015
1.2K Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
Considering buying a house for a while now.
Financially I'm not sure whether it's a good investment, but I'd love to have a long-term residence (talking decades).
I also think it gives peace of mind, a place of "FU" for those who know the famous scene from The Gambler.
Curious to hear from those who did buy a house: Do you regret it, or do you still consider it a good decision?
And also curious to hear from people who decided not to buy one or don't plan to (and why)
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@Shaughnessy119 @AskVenice high stakes agents 100% will need to store "soul" and other files onchain. for persistence but also for "verifiable soul" at time of inference
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Today people use @AskVenice for Hermes/Openclaw agents for privately accessing open source models without sending data to China
The arb is clear. You don't want to setup everything at home but you also dont want to use an intermediary or direct China APIs (GLM, Qwen, Minimax) and send all your data to China. On most intermediaries you can't guarantee your data won't go to China which is important to me and other folks.
So you use Venice to avoid a hardware setup (mac Minis, GPUs, etc) and also leverage Chinese Open source models without sending data to china. The model breaks if China goes closed source but we haven't seen that happen.
Longer term I think people give autonomous agents DIEM or VVV to allow agents to access AI inference for their own reasons
People can setup autonomous @NousResearch Hermes agents (here is DIEM go use AI for X reason) or graduate their personal Hermes agents into autonomous ones
Sovereign AI Agents that can access inference on their own, make money, grow their DIEM/Venice token holdings to access more intelligence and repeat
The key will be figuring out where the brains/rest of the agent lives on-chain. This is a question for the @solana_ai / @_rishinsharma and @base teams among others. Maybe for now they just live on VPS on Digital Ocean/peoples laptops but the wallet and personality move on-chain. Probably the easiest right now.
It seems likely people want to flex their existing agents publicly. If you graduate them to the public realm (Access to X, Access to a crypto wallet for clout on activities, etc). This is outside the venice idea but I think its likely people will want their personal agents in the public realm. Anyone building this?
There needs to be a portal where you give your agent access to X/social network of some kind.
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Consolidating my portfolio and buying more $OXY
1. 📈US based energy
2. Stability - Berkshire owns25%+
3. $45/bb production costs
4. P/E @ 50% of peers
5. New industrial scale carbon capture business
stable floor with oil + ai upside
ailmanack.com/research/oxy-2…
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Jonto retweetledi
The biggest headwind confluence I see right now for crypto is Bitmine hitting their 5% ETH target and significantly slowing buying, STRC inflows losing steam, and an overheated market letting out some steam.
That could see crypto prices heading back towards 2026 lows, which I'd personally see as a good buying opportunity.
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For flag aesthetics we need 4 or 5 states at once.
Map-wise just Alberta would look too weird, they need to talk British Columbia to coming as a package deal.
Clean corridor to Alaska.
Greenland + Puerto Rico easy
Room for a wild card
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.@profstonge
It’s Official: Alberta will vote on Independence after years of abuse from the rest of Canada. If it succeeds, it's 80% odds Alberta applies to join the US.
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Jonto retweetledi
HOLY COW: Bombshell data from the IRS has left NY Governor Kathy Hochul speechless.
Between 2020-2024, 892 companies escaped from New York - along with $47 BILLION in income with them.
Here's where they went:
• Florida: 341 companies
• Texas: 187
• North Carolina: 129
But guess what - it's no longer just billionaires.
We're talking about middle-class professionals, small business owners, and families desperate to flee the taxes, regulations and unsafe state.
Remember when Hochul made fun of them?
“Just get on a bus.” Well.... they did.
REPOST and get the data out there!
#thinblueline #lawenforcement
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XIFR — XPLR Infrastructure ($2.08B)
Deep value with real cash flows. Formerly NextEra Energy Partners, got crushed when they suspended distributions in early 2025 to redeploy capital. 2026 EBITDA guidance is $1.75-1.95B with $600-700M FCF before growth — that's a single-digit EV/EBITDA on a portfolio of long-contracted wind/solar/storage. They just exercised co-investment options for 49% interest in four battery storage JVs (~$315M commitment), and the AI data center power demand backdrop is a tailwind for renewables generation. Sentiment is washed out — recent put buying suggests the bears are still on it, which is often a contrarian setup. Options are listed but lower volume than SRPT. Catalyst is just time + market re-rating as the restructuring story matures. Note: it's a partnership (LP), so K-1 tax treatment, not 1099.
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Good thing economists are never wrong
Elias Al@iam_elias1
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy. Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes. The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled. The conclusion is one sentence. "At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand." An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody. Here is how you get there. A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself. Because the workers who were fired were also customers. When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation. The loop has no natural exit. The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements. Every single one failed in the model. The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger. No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it. Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion." Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem. Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it. Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place. Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University · arxiv.org/pdf/2603.20617
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Jonto retweetledi
Jonto retweetledi
I ended up getting busy and am doing this on the go, so apologies for the mobile charts.
These are my top gas & oil picks with attractive long term chart setups, that fit my energy thesis (voracious energy consumption from AI + Fourth Turning disruptions) that I like as multi-years holdings.
For the sake of time I'll list my 3 or 4 current top picks.
My rule is no ETF's that are simply trading futures contracts. Real companies or company etf's only.
$FCG - S-tier, has larger natgas weighting which fits my AI thesis but still has plenty of oil exposure. Has a top-tier chart and bullish setups in the pairs charts as well (e.g. FCG vs XLE). Downside here is a recession as this would get hit particularly hard in that case.
$XOP - S-tier, high beta exposure if oil disruption continues, has a fantastic chart. Downside here is this will get hit hard if Hormuz actually opens, but even in that case I think it still does well in the long run.
$XOM - S-tier, absolutely beautiful chart setup with a strong bullish tilted inverse head & shoulders that's already broken out. Biggest downside here is it's a single name (concentrated/company risk) and in a strong energy bull it won't run as hard as the higher beta names, but that's sort of to be expected.
$XLE - A-tier, a great looking chart although not as nice as the ones mentioned above which is likely due to this being a broader index, not as highly oil focused. Could start running hard now that its clear multi-year resistance and is consolidating above.
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Social media might've peaked, with one notable exception
More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…
a16z@a16z
Scrolling is on the decline More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…
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@BoredElonMusk @AlphaSchoolATX Yeah that’s the rub. Growing fast though, different iterations. This was a good pod.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
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@jonto21 @AlphaSchoolATX The price for the one in CA seems verrrry high.
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Parents, what's your stance on putting young kids in classes with older kids, versus keeping them at their level?
On one hand, I like the idea of pushing a kid to advance faster by surrounding them with those who are ahead. On the other, at single digit ages the difference between kids development can be massive even with a year difference.
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Hey @LAFD instead of trying to get people to sign a petition for a tax increase partner with @nickshirleyy publicly expose the fraud wasting taxpayers money, and get funding reallocated
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In the real world people don’t assume things.
In the real world people establish clear relationships with contracts that define who does what and happens when shit goes wrong.
The Chopping Block@_choppingblock
.@tomhschmidt on responsibility, service providers, and where this starts to break down. “Obviously if you’re paying someone to run this for you, you assume that they’re gonna be doing it correctly.” “If you pay your mechanic and they, like, break your car… ‘You should’ve gotten a second opinion.’”
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