@atcsplashPRMR @Tyler_Neville_ Pretty weird to see you here but not on discord
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Trader Joe
1.1K posts
Trader Joe
@joojiro01
✝️🇰🇷🇺🇸 | Financial Analyst; NFA! | Options & Perps 2020~ | Unlearn, Unlimit
California, USA Katılım Ocak 2024
214 Takip Edilen190 Takipçiler
@Tyler_Neville_ Pretty weird to see markets at aths and were close to “peak hawkishness”
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Everyone reading Warsh's "Price Stability" is extremely hawkish today- Not sure that's exactly the correct take.
The market is reading it as hawkish because real rates just skyrocketed as nominal yields are rising with the dollar, but inflation is falling like a rock.
The market is gonna force Warsh to back-track based on "price-stability" framework and Fed raise expectations getting tighter would really cause problems as credit spreads blow out.
We'll see if this gets reversed tomorrow, but the dollar breakout & volatility could cause some deleveraging overseas- Korean leverage is large to quite large.
Still stand by we are close to peak hawkishness @qthomp @fejau_inc
Tyler Neville@Tyler_Neville_
Peak Hawkishness? Could we see the blue line slam down on Warsh later today? @fejau_inc @qthomp Also, 85% of treasury issuance is at the front end. Methinks people might be offsides here....
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Trader Joe retweetledi
After market closes, I’ll be posting in an hour some interesting setups for next week OPEX based on Heatseeker on subs. So notifications on please!
Will be a fun week. 👀
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Trader Joe retweetledi
$BTC: Volatility Re-Expansion Echoes a Prior Bear-Market Sequence
Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is re-expanding from its late-May compression low.
In the previous bear cycle, major downside phases were marked by a sequence of progressively higher local volatility peaks, although the progression was not linear.
Sustained compression emerged only later, after BTC stabilized within a lower price range.
The current cycle shows a comparable early sequence: a higher local volatility peak during the March decline, sharp compression into late May, and renewed expansion now.
The latest reading remains below the March peak, so another higher volatility peak has not yet been confirmed.
Volatility is not directional by itself. However, when expansion resumes while the broader market structure remains weak, the risk of wider downside swings increases if that weakness persists.
Current conditions are therefore more consistent with renewed instability than with the sustained low-volatility environment typically associated with market stabilization and accumulation.
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Trader Joe retweetledi
The Alpha Squad keeps growing, and today we're excited to welcome @_Crypto_glass as Alphractal's newest official ambassador.
With a sharp eye for analysis and a genuine passion for the markets, ZizCrypto joins our ecosystem to share insights, educate, and bring even more value to the people who follow Alphractal.
Welcome to the Alpha Squad. 🚀
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$HYPE
Can’t believe they ran back the same topping process
Just goes to show chart > narratives nothing wrong with the coin just needs a break and I think ETFs will bid the 40s
Not a good look the market leading alt couldn’t escape the crypto weakness
Weekly looks good still but invalidation is too far away to use as a benchmark imo
Above 66 and you get to aths
ATC@atcsplashPRMR
$HYPE Big daily candle here imo mid 40s prob get hit if we lose 56
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Trader Joe retweetledi
🚨 엘론 “내가 NVIDIA보다 2~3배 좋은 칩 만든다… 비용은 10분의 1” 😱 $TSLA
Ron Baron 인터뷰에서 Elon Musk가 밝힌 내용:
• 자체 칩 개발 중 — NVIDIA보다 2~3배 성능, 비용 10분의 1 목표
• “칩의 전체 물리적 설계가 머릿속에 다 그려져 있다”
• TSMC 새 팹 5년 걸린다는 말에 → “5년은 나에게 영원… 내 타임라인은 1년, 2년, 3년 이후는 무한”
• 직접 팹 건설 검토 중
• Tesla FSD 100억 마일 주행 데이터 (인간보다 4배 안전) + 새 칩으로 10배 향상 예상
“휴가용 주택은 없고, 오스틴 집 하나 + 스타베이스 작은 집뿐”
🔹 Elon의 칩 도전, 현실적일까요?
🔹 Tesla가 자체 AI 칩으로 NVIDIA 의존을 줄일 수 있을까요?
솔직 의견 댓글로 알려주세요 👇
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Trader Joe retweetledi
So to recap, today $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston:
1) Confirmed LITE is on pace to meet or exceed the top-end of its guidance
2) Confirmed $NVDA scale-out and scale-up CPO timelines
3) Highlighted NPO for non $NVDA customers as a massive new, near-term opportunity that is even bigger than CPO
4) Communicated that demand has expanded even more relative to expectations from just 1-2 months ago
Easiest dip buy ever.
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Trader Joe retweetledi
@joojiro01 @joao_wedson @Alphractal That is the key divergence.
Price returned to the same zone, but the derivatives market did not reset to the same level.
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@_Crypto_glass @joao_wedson @Alphractal Interesting divergence 👀 BTC back to Feb levels but OI refusing to cool off
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Trader Joe retweetledi
$BTC: Price Returns to February Levels While Open Interest Remains Elevated
BTC traded near $80.9K as aggregate open interest across all exchanges reached approximately $52.25B at the May 5 open-interest peak.
Price now stands near $61.7K, while aggregate open interest has declined to around $37.69B as of June 7.
From the May 5 open-interest peak, BTC has fallen by roughly 23.7%, while USD-denominated open interest has contracted by about 27.9%.
This is consistent with a meaningful reduction in open derivatives exposure as the market moved lower.
The February comparison adds important context.
BTC traded near $62.9K with aggregate open interest around $27.1B on February 5.
At a comparable price today, open interest remains roughly 39% higher.
BTC has returned to the February price zone, but open interest remains materially above the level observed at that time.
This does not mean another liquidation event must follow. However, despite the substantial contraction from the May peak, open derivatives exposure remains materially above February levels.
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Trader Joe retweetledi
Trader Joe retweetledi
Trader Joe retweetledi
$BTC
So far, this cycle has mirrored 2022 remarkably closely.
The main difference is the volatility, deviations, and market manipulation.
This cycle has produced much larger moves above and below key levels. For example, in the previous cycle, BTC swept the ATH and retraced relatively quickly.
This time, price spent 60 days ranging above $108K before eventually moving lower, creating a much more prolonged distribution range.
We also saw a significant low at $28K in the last cycle. Once that level was broken, price never returned to retest it until the bear market had ended.
This cycle's equivalent appears to be the $74K low.
The key difference is that BTC aggressively deviated above that area beforehand, trapping and shaking out a large number of participants. As a result, the deviations around major highs and lows have been far more aggressive this cycle.
If the pattern continues to track the previous cycle, it would suggest that the bottom is likely close following the sweep below 60K.
However, given the increased volatility, we should also be open to the possibility of a deeper and more gradual deviation than what occurred in 2022.
Regardless, my view remains unchanged. I am a buyer at these levels because I believe the current cycle is nearing its bottom and the next major cycle will begin once this process is complete.
A few months of pain/chop is enough to make people go insane.
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Trader Joe retweetledi
Nature builds reality through waves, geometry, numbers, and repeating patterns. Logic, emotion, and intelligence emerge from the same universal language. Fractals and harmonic structures reveal a universe expressing itself as a living mind.
🎥 @animuspax
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Trader Joe retweetledi
$PEPE: Support Breakdown Exposes the Next Major Cost-Basis Cluster
In the February update, the 4.40 µ region was identified as the last meaningful intermediate cost-basis concentration below price before the supply structure became materially thinner.
That level has since failed, and PEPE moved through the thinner section rapidly rather than gradually.
The importance of the 4.40 µ region became even clearer during the May rebound, when price retested the area from below and was rejected.
The February thesis was structural rather than target-based: once the 4.40 µ region failed, no comparable lower cost-basis concentration remained nearby.
PEPE now trades near 2.66 µ, while the largest cost-basis cluster below spot within the selected three-year view sits around 1.52 µ, representing approximately 1.57T PEPE.
This places the next major lower concentration roughly 43% below the current price.
The change from the earlier 1.30 µ reference to 1.52 µ reflects the dynamic nature of cost-basis distributions as tokens are spent and repriced on-chain.
This does not mean $PEPE must trade to 1.52 µ. However, with no comparable cost-basis concentration visible between spot and that region, the downside structure remains exposed.
Zizcrypto@_Crypto_glass
$PEPE: Supply Structure Imbalance Retail cost basis is clustered near 18.80 µ, marking the largest overhead supply concentration (~56.7T $PEPE). This level acts as a structural distribution ceiling in the current regime. On the downside, the last meaningful demand pocket sits around 4.40 µ (~9.5T $PEPE), serving as the final visible support zone. Below 4.40 µ, liquidity thins sharply. A decisive break would likely trigger accelerated downside toward the 1.30 µ region. The structure is asymmetric: heavy overhead supply, fragile support below. If 4.40 µ fails, the move lower is expected to be swift rather than gradual.
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Trader Joe retweetledi
$ETH: Long-Side Risk Is Now Showing in Price Action
ETH now trades near $1,656, down roughly 21.7% from the prior update near $2,114.
At that time, funding rates across all exchanges were around 0.0105%, while ETH remained below the April rebound high and its price structure was already fragile.
The signal was not the funding level alone.
It was the mismatch between a persistent long-side bias in perpetual markets and price action that failed to confirm that optimism.
That vulnerability has since become visible in price action.
Funding has now declined to around 0.0023%, indicating that the long-side bias has eased, but the market has not shifted into a sustained negative-funding regime.
This distinction matters most in a weak market structure. Positive funding can coexist with strength during an uptrend, but without price confirmation, the same bias can become a source of vulnerability.
The remaining positive funding does not guarantee further downside, but it shows that the funding regime has not fully reset.
Zizcrypto@_Crypto_glass
$ETH: Positive Funding Persists Despite Fragile Price Structure Ethereum funding rates across all exchanges remain positive around 0.0105%, while ETH trades near $2,114 after pulling back from the $2.4K area. This marks a notable positioning divergence from April 17, when ETH traded near $2,420 while funding rates were still negative at around -0.0040%. In other words, ETH is now trading below the April rebound high, yet long-side participation in perpetual markets has become more active despite the lower price. A similar dynamic appeared in prior vulnerable setups. On October 27, 2025, ETH traded near $4.12K with funding around 0.0124% ahead of the November decline. On January 28, 2026, ETH traded near $3.0K with funding around 0.0112%, shortly before the sharp February decline. This should not be read as a standalone bearish signal. The more important point is that long-side demand in perpetual markets has not fully reset while price structure remains fragile. For ETH, this makes the current setup more sensitive. If spot demand fails to confirm this renewed long-side activity, the positioning can become a source of volatility rather than confirmation of strength.
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