
Joshua Peck
3.2K posts

Joshua Peck
@joshpeck
Independent researcher. Quantitative finance + AI. Helping institutions measure systemic fragility & navigate uncertainty when models diverge.







I’d like to give Brandon Turner sincere credit for this post on IG. He fully owned up to the loss of LP capital publicly. Explained his responsibility, which is the most important, along with the market factors the affected the downfall of this deal. This is exactly how a sponsor should transparently communicate when something like this happens. It doesn’t make the loss of capital easier, but I have true respect for people that take ownership. The guru class has butchered the handling of their errors over the past 5 years. Brandon is the first one I’ve seen to step forward and address it. Credit where credit is due. Bravo.









⚠️The global bond CRISIS is ACCELERATING: The 30-year UK gilt yield has surged to ~6.2%, the highest since 1998, while the US 30-year Treasury yield stands at ~5.1%, near the highest since 2023. Germany's 30-year yield has risen to ~3.2%, the highest since 2011, and Japan's 30-year yield has surged to ~4.1%, the highest since its debut in 1999. In effect, the average 10+ year yield across G7 nations is now at its highest level since 2004. This selloff is driven by a combination of rising energy and commodity prices fueling inflation fears, surging government debt issuance from Tokyo to Washington, and the end of central bank bond-buying programs. Traders now see a Fed rate hike by March 2027, a complete reversal from late February when 2 rate cuts were expected this year. Higher bond yields are already pushing up borrowing costs on mortgages, business loans, and credit cards, while equity markets are starting to wobble after previously setting records. The era of cheap government borrowing is over.












