Josh Payne

@WilliamWolfe So you make money posting on x…more followers, more money? Curious because I’ve seen several of tour posts regarding followers and views.

Looks like I just need a mere 3,425 more followers to hit 100k...so if folks want to help make that happen sometime in, let's say, the next 48 hours, that would be awesome!

@skm1302 @MikeWingerii Perhaps you should get to know him.

@MikeWingerii Buddy, never heard of you but you better make sure you've been in the throne room before blowing your trumpet.

Benny Hinn is a bad guy

$SOFI... -8%, let's see how it trades b/c this was a crazy good Q. Obviously I'm p*ssed, but at the same time, the bears do this sh*t... Let's go through the Q. Rev + 43%, Net Inc + 134% EBITDA + 62% BV of $8.44, TBV of $7.21 Really? Are we really trading this down to 2x BV in line with $JPM, but growing Net Inc like 12x faster? And before we try to front like that's not relevant, realize this: Every other bank (except maybe $BK) is making that high teens/20s growth this quarter and growing net income only 5-25% of $SOFI via Investment banking. $SOFI's doing it with just straight boring commercial banking growth. Oh... and in the Q&A... in case there is ANY confusion $SOFI's goosing the growth numbers, the EBITDA growth (which matters more than net income b/c $SOFI is still an early stage company and also implies net income is also clean), that's net of marketing expense. That's not even how other folks present the number, btw... That's why when folks pretend $SOFi doesn't disrupt banking, I'm like... in what world is that true? Look at these numbers. What is it you think is happening here in these financial statements? How good was it? BTW... the bears want to pretend that something is going on with Credit Quality and so equity is understated in some way (aka ROE), but are you F-in kidding me. Clearly, with TBV up 63%, that net income is most def hitting Retained Earnings (aka how you get TBV up that much). In other words, that's BS, right.. we can agree that's how you read that, right? Let's talk about Book Value Oh, and BTW, BV is one of the metrics that more traditional folks like me will look at. AND MOST DEF will tell you if the capital raise was worth it. You basically raised $3b in Equity capital through secondaries ($1.5 July 25, $1.5 Dec 25). And at this point, not even a year later, you have $4.2b more in Book Value (so $4.2-$3b, $1.2b addition Equity Capital). What's that mean? Plenty of Capital to continue to fuel growth. By plenty, I mean $1.2B more in addition to the $3b capital raise. Strong Despite the Macro Yup. that's straight cash, kids. And realize that "in theory," this isn't yet a truly good market for $SOFI. A "Good Market" would be the world calming down and rates declining at a chill place, with the whole curve shifting downward vs this weird twisty steepening we're getting. That would drive a macro refi boom in Mortgages, HELOCs, etc. And this would substantially change the balance sheet. Crazy Strong Loan Growth But then let's look at the mortgage growth (image below). A few comments for the newbies learning to infer this. You have Mortgage growth up 137% with average balance down 11%. What's that mean? It means unlike every other bank which had flat to single digit mortgage growth, $SOFI made loans, aka took share. AND ALSO, these ARE NOT risky loans. If anything, given the size difference from previous year, this book is less risky. AND also, the volume (aka count of customers) of 137% is likely higher. And they talked about the demand for loans despite the weirdness in the long end of the yield curve being strong. And that matters b/c if you can finally get this stupid yield curve shifting downwards vs just steepening, the low-hanging fruit of HELOCs is just refinancing the student loan book. Call it what it is. Those are high-credit-rating older GenZ's, younger millennials who have been out of university now for a while and likely are home buyers. What about the Tech Platform? Ya'll know I differ from everyone else b/c I could give a farthing (insert other F word) about the tech platform. The nature of tech-heavy FinTechs always involves a ton of CapEx, depressed earnings because of it, and, quite frankly, in the coming macro environment, you can likely buy a smaller Fintech at a discount from some broke start-up that's going belly up due to lack of clients and earnings. So yeah, TBH, I'm not sure why ya'll care so much when the internal use of that platform grew EBITDA 64%. But whatev's. What about Crypto I do want to show the Crypto biz. Notice. It takes a lot of cash right now. That might change in the future. We shall see. That's yet another reason why I think you fortify Book Value with the additional $4.2 b of capital. And here I differ from others, too. I think $SOFI's most wild card value is this stablecoin biz, not because of payments or because a bunch of crypto bro's want to pound their chest like a bunch of apes on the end of America, but because the most PROFITABLE THING stable coin allows for is an off-ramp. And it occurs to me that a bunch of you will nod your head but have NO IDEA what I mean. So let's talk about it. Let's say you're some dude from UAE who's got a ton of crypto assets (not that far-fetched). You wanna buy a bunch of real assets (real estate) in the US. You gotta figure out for yourself... how do I get my crypto into USD so I can buy real assets on the cheap in the US? That's what stablecoin is really for. Not the nonsense $5 toothpaste you bought from Walmart. Right now, at $124mm that's on the small side for an off-ramp, given the size of money I'm thinking is possible. But it doesn't have to be. And we know Mr. Noto had zero dollars last year, and this year he's got $124mm now. And guess what lovelies... that's why it's such an interesting biz, esp in the context of offering it across to other banks. Whether most of it is with $SOFi and it helps grow the asset management biz or it facilites money coming into the US, I care. It's part of why even if I didn't own one share (which obvious I'm long) I would STILL watch $SOFI. Other 1) NIM is down barely. Why Barely? B/c funding mix is more or less compensating for it. And you can do that for 2 reasons: a) Your debt isn't warehouse financed anymore. Even with their higher-than-market bank accounts, those deposits are still a cheaper form of funding. b) B/c you were offering so much more than everyone else on deposits last year, your funding cost is still is lower yoy despite that you are offering less to folks who have deposits at $SOFI. 2) Financial Services Segment growing 41%. Cool, but even that crazy number is less significant than everything else I mentioned. Plus b/c hte yield curve is all over the place yoy, it cosmetically looks like lower margins. 3) Credit Quality is just fine/slightly better NCO's. Even though you have higher Provision for Credit Losses, you also have massive loans that were originated. Overall, though you have lower NCO's. That implies that once we finally do get lower rates, $SOFI can still release reserves just like everybody else. (aka more liquidity if we shift to a good market. Conclusion There is nothing more thankless than being a $SOFI investor, and quite frankly, I wish you would do a 4pm EST call so I could go get a drink right now. Instead, I gotta watch how the day traders beat up my poor stock all morning, fully caffeinated. No change to my views. Happy Wednesday. If you actually made it this far in my post, drop me a comment... maybe some kind words as I cry in my coffee about how mean the bears & day traders are....

Paedo and credo baptism is no exception to this. It’s sad the divisions that have and still take place. Shoot, Baptists took their name as a protest!

@ImprecatoryOne Except for the baptismal regeneration heresy, no, it’s not.

Baptism is a primary issue.

@WesleyLHuff According to what info do base that judgment?

@AiG Curious what Ken Ham‘s thoughts are about the possible Noahs Arc discovery on mount Ararat in Turkey? There was a Fox News reporting about it a couple days ago.

Archaeology around the world has revealed ancient technology without discernible periods of evolution.

@Le_Master @patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve Great title. He’s a pastor, of course it’s from a Christian worldview. There should be no other worldviews… which doesn’t change the methodology, merely perspective.

@jpayne_71 @patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve

Straight into my veins. Favorite interview EVER.

@Le_Master @patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve Prove it.

@jpayne_71 @patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve He’s done no such thing. In fact, it will take decades or more to roll back the fake classical education movement he’s responsible for.

@patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve …also, Doug Wilson’s debates with Christopher Hitchens are a must-watch. Other than perhaps Greg Bahnsen, I don’t think I’ve seen better apologetics in action.

@jpayne_71 @ZrimecSteve There is no possible world in which you think he revolutionized classical education. If a man has a track record of severely mishandling any sexual abuse/pedophile case that comes his way, what does that say about his seemingly "good" fruit?

@ZrimecSteve @patriarchysons Show me a great man that hasn’t made great mistakes? Until then, I will trust the Lord for discernment through His word and His spirit. God bless

@jpayne_71 @patriarchysons Spare us this kind of wishy washy both sidesism, give us more Tim Millers. Discernment isn’t your long suit

@patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve Yes, seemingly a lack of biblical wisdom when it come to handling several parishioners sin/scandals. However, poor judgment isn’t condemning necessarily. The “good” category is still ripe. He revolutionized classical education and has much good Biblical cultural analysis, etc

@jpayne_71 @ZrimecSteve I ask this sincerely, are you aware that this is one of many similar cases at Christ Church Moscow?

@Dr_Crossroads I respect and appreciate that. God bless.

@jpayne_71 Haven't shared that publicly (nor my job), but it's not related to what I do for investing or X / YouTube. So not business, economics, etc. It's one of the many PhD's that probably wouldn't impress a lot of people, but that's not why I did it.

Quick note: I've changed my handle on X to @Dr_Crossroads and YouTube to @Dr_Crossroads" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@Dr_Crossroads. This change was made for several reasons. 1) Confusion over Krossroads, Kross_roads, and Crossroads branding (since the names were taken on some platforms. 2) I hold a conferred PhD now. 3) Dr_Roy was taken on one of the platforms, so I figured I'd just stick to Dr_Crossroads. The review process went much more quickly than expected the last time I did this on X, but it still might take a few days.

@patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve I am long familiar with this case and it’s sad. I agree, Wilson, even if operating under what he believed was “repentance and restoration”, was unwise in several aspects of the case, and his lack of wisdom led to further sin and heartache. “Bad” category.

@jpayne_71 @ZrimecSteve What about his marrying off a pedophile who then became aroused by his son? And yes, this is documented.

@ZrimecSteve @patriarchysons The Bible is my standard of what is good and bad, not myself. It’s definitely not for cleverness sake that I find some, not all, of what Doug has to say “good”. Such as his tempered response to unjust public slander [good]. His debates with Christopher Hitches [very good].

@jpayne_71 @patriarchysons If you’re defending Wilson in any way, you’ve no idea what “the good” even is, but keep telling yourself stuff that makes you feel good and clever

@patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve I will defend the good and call out the bad…but with knowledge.

@patriarchysons @ZrimecSteve Just slander then, got it.