Jonathan Chavez

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Jonathan Chavez

Jonathan Chavez

@jschavez

Chief Research Officer, Gydence Group. Taking care of Srs Bzns. Gouverneur Morris Stan. Purveyor of bespoke hot takes.

Dallas, TX Katılım Nisan 2007
237 Takip Edilen818 Takipçiler
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
Harris went from +29 among 18-29 voters in WI in the NYT’s August poll to -18 today. Crosstab truthering is dangerous, but a 47 point swing in a demographic group really should force you to ask some serious questions about methodology, coverage biases, weighting decisions, etc.
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
4 Down in the Sunday NYT crossword is a clear error. The band famously was militant about the fact their name Eagles, not The Eagles.
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
@jbarro Nothing wrong with it. I’m seeing nice results on my side.
Jonathan Chavez tweet media
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Josh Barro
Josh Barro@jbarro·
I think there’s something seriously wrong with the Spotify “listening age” algorithm (or maybe it’s just engagement bait I am falling for)
Josh Barro tweet mediaJosh Barro tweet media
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Josh Barro
Josh Barro@jbarro·
Now I am shuddering to think who Tim Walz would have to put on a ticket to avoid being overshadowed. Katie Hobbs, I guess.
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
@jbarro Are we sure this isn’t just a poster for a movie on Seinfeld?
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
We shouldn’t let the pollsters off the hook here, but the data modelers/voter file firms deserve some of blame here. Pollsters use their likely voter models for the electorate. They’re really bad with young voters. Really bad. Not the only issue, but a contributing factor.
umichvoter@umichvoter

The big question heading into the NYC race was what % of the electorate would be 18-44. @rudnicknoah had looked into this Manhattan Institute had it ~ 24% Marist had it ~ 30% Emerson had it ~ 35% The actual result was 18-44 year olds were 48-49% of the electorate 🚨

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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
And another note: This is - by far- the biggest adjustment they have to make in their weighting scheme. Nothing else is close. Not a criticism of the Times at all here. Just noting this stuff isn't getting any easier.
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
The education problem remains the hardest thing to solve for pollsters. Low-trust voters are just not answering the phone. Yes, the Times is correctly weighting that 18% to 31%, but all pollsters should have real fears about the representativeness of the 18% to project the 31%.
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
Must watch for everyone. It's a MAJOR achievement by @dellavolpe and the team to have done 50 editions of this poll. It's a remarkable study, always interesting in the moment but even more interesting when the full picture is viewed. A+ work all around.
Institute of Politics@HarvardIOP

John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe), IOP's Director of Polling, breaks down several key findings in the 50th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, touching on young Americans' financial hardship & shifting traditional life goals. Read more: ken.sc/s25-poll msnbc.com/morning-joe/wa…

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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
The highlight of the Mavs season was losing the second play-in to Memphis so we didn't have to be subjected to this...
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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
Not enough is made of this: Trump's first term was the only period in the last 25 years where more than 10% of the population rated the economy as excellent. His cultural politics have never been some silver bullet (🥁). He just had/ran a good economy.
Jonathan Chavez tweet mediaJonathan Chavez tweet media
Nate Silver@NateSilver538

The implicit bargain of Trump for swing voters is that he'll run a good economy and then do a bunch of culture war stuff you can take or leave, but the libs will freak out about. If the economy is tanking for reasons that are largely his fault, that case is much less persuasive.

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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
A good basic heuristic is that elected officials and politicians, win campaigns because of certain factors and in spite of certain factors. Successful administrations understand the difference between the two. Poor administrations confuse them.
Sean T at RCP@SeanTrende

Look, the core of what Trump is doing is more popular than your average Acela-corridor observer wants to believe, but the pro-Tates, pro-tariff-on-Canada-even-if-it-tanks-my-401k, cool-with-Russian-tanks-rolling-through-Kiev, anti-seed-oil voter is less common than MAGA thinks.

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Jonathan Chavez
Jonathan Chavez@jschavez·
@daveweigel We know Mr. Brightside is the UK National Anthem. Ask yourself this? Has Mr. Brightside been in the top 100 for 443 weeks in the US? No. Has it in the UK? Yes. Is Mr. Brightside in the top 100 this week in the US? No. In the UK? It's number 76 THIS WEEK. officialcharts.com/charts/singles…
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Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk Nowitzki@swish41·
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