Yishan@yishan
One detail I'm realizing I didn't make clear:
The key thing this fact pattern reveals is: higher TRAJECTORY due to structural factors.
This is the pattern I've observed over 20+ years in technology, watching incumbents get overtaken by disruptors across multiple verticals.
The moment of first realization is when near-parity is suddenly achieved. The "suddenly" is a symptom of the newcomer's higher (steeper climb) trajectory. Why is the trajectory steeper? Usually you have to look, but it's typically a combination of factors like talent, supply chain, methodology, culture, etc. The specifics differ case by case but there are usually multiple factors.
The incumbents usually can't duplicate all of those factors, which is why the newcomer will maintain a steeper trajectory and the NEXT major product release is that one that ends up blowing everything out of the water. But this is how you spot it.