k

Today, my work over the years received another validation. The DoJ, together with the FBI, announced charges against three executives of SuperMicro (SMCI) for Conspiracy to Violate the Export Control Reform Act. Since at least early 2024, SMCI's executives built a sophisticated, systematic scheme to illegally divert billions of dollars worth of high-performance AI servers containing restricted Nvidia GPUs to China, using a pass-through company in Southeast Asia to evade U.S. export controls. I was the first to call out this smuggling phenomenon in late 2023, when it was just beginning to pick up volume. I tracked the flow of chips across Southeast Asia, including their final destinations in China, and identified the key participants, SMCI among them, documenting how the sophisticated, systemic scheme operated. What the DoJ described in its charging documents is precisely what I wrote about numerous times: the mechanics of how it works, the routes the GPUs travel from origin to their final destination in China, and the volume of the smuggling, which I estimated at tens of billions of dollars worth of GPUs. SMCI is a significant catch, but it is far from the only player in this smuggling ecosystem. Others remain uncharged. What has been equally troubling is that many companies, including public companies and their executives, have had knowing or willful blindness to this phenomenon, looking the other way in order to hit sales targets and meet Wall Street estimates. Meanwhile, the smuggling network has evolved in parallel with one of the fastest datacenter buildouts in Southeast Asia, involving numerous subsidiaries, local companies, and datacenter operators who have absorbed every lesson from the smuggling playbook and are now working around the clock to build a datacenter empire across the SEA region.

The Israeli Strike Near Iran’s Reactor is an Ominous Signal The US and Israel find themselves cornered with dwindling options and growing desperation. This is evident in their attacks on Iran’s electrical grid and their calculated attempt to shift the Overton Window toward the nuclear threshold. The statement by Trump advisor David Sacks, suggesting Israel could escalate the conflict with nuclear options, coincides with a missile strike landing just 350 meters from the Bushehr reactor. This isn’t just a warning; it’s a veiled threat. It’s a trial balloon designed to gauge the global reaction to such a catastrophic possibility. A direct hit on an Iranian reactor would inevitably force Iran to retaliate against Dimona, leading us into a spiral of nuclear escalation, but what if Dimona be empty? As global opinion is being tested, this "window" is being meticulously shifted and calibrated. Currently, US-Israeli options, beyond aerial bombardment, include sector-specific ground operations. But what if these operations end in disaster? Even a NATO intervention might change nothing. In Libya, European NATO forces depleted their ammunition in about 10 days during a low-intensity conflict. Today, Rheinmetall claims European stockpiles are bone-dry. While I usually take Rheinmetall’s claims with a grain of salt, this time it actually makes sense. We are looking at a scenario of severe ammunition shortages against a heavily entrenched and well-armed Iran. Any landing operation would be a bloodbath. I believe that, faced with mounting internal and external failures, the US and Israel will gradually push the Overton Window to a choice between total defeat or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in the event of a catastrophic failure of ground operations. Tactical nuclear weapons are strictly forbidden for use, yet their radiation dissipates within weeks in the current environment. Even so, it would constitute a grave war crime. I do not believe the U.S. would embark on such a path, but I cannot say the same for Israel. Ending the war with Iran still possessing enriched uranium would be equivalent to admitting that Netanyahu, instead of increasing his people's security, did the exact opposite. The internal pressure would be immense. If nothing goes as planned and the death toll rises, I feel this window can shift much faster.

🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…

🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…

NETANYAHU: “There will be boots on the ground in Iran.”