dadsuz
1.7K posts
The 13 reasons that Kris Knoblauch was doomed this year and fired today:
1. The St. Louis offer sheet and heist of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway.
2. Bowman's summer signings of Frederic and Mangiapane.
3. Physical and mental fatigue from two long playoff runs.
4. Knoblauch's coaching staff hiring cock-up of last summer.
5. Bowman and Knoblauch conflict over which players to play.
6. Way too many new players this year, all year.
7. Knoblauch himself at times failed to reward players who had done well.
8. Crazy busy travel in October and November.
9. Team's inconsistency in finding their "A" defensive and puck possession game.
10. Same old, over-reliance on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
11. Edmonton's goalies simply failed to get the job done.
12. Cascading chaos bubbled up and never went away, as seen by Draisaitl, McDavid outbursts.
13. The final coach killer was injury.
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Better Home & Finance reported Q1 last Wednesday, May 7. Ticker BETR. The stock has sold off sharply since.
I own a small amount. I sold a lot after the print.
An X subscriber emailed me earlier this week asking hold or dump.
The 5 marker framework I used to call Opendoor a hold last week cut the opposite way on Better. Same framework. Opposite signal. That's how you know it's a framework and not a permabull narrative.
Marker 1 alone tells you why I trimmed.
Kaz Nejatian at Opendoor put cohort margin curves on the screen. Purple line for the old vintages. Blue line for the new ones. 260 basis points of margin decay on the legacy book. 90 basis points on the new book. 3 times better. That's cohort discipline.
Vishal Garg at Better did not show a cohort curve. He showed monthly volume. January 450 million. February 521 million. March 673 million. That's growth. That's different.
That's 1-2 markers out of 5 for Better. 5 out of 5 for Opendoor.
The other 4 markers, the 4 reasons the stock is down sharply, the 50 percent of revenue going to stock based compensation, the 39 percent wider GAAP loss, and what I actually did with my position are in the premium 12 min video. It’s uploading now.
Subscribe.
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Yesterday I posted in a rush, and my posts had significant errors, though the conclusions--we're in a period of phenomenal growth, and of investment opportunity for $HGRAF longs--was accurate. You'llfind the corrected version below:
Lots of impatience with $HGRAF share price action--though only on down days! ;-) This is going to *feel* like a long slog at times, and frustrating, as current longs are early adopters. We see where this is going; most are not even aware of Hydrograph’s existence yet. This includes many, many potential clients. Other potential clients are using it in pilot studies, but due to NDAs or simply prudence, they don't want to advertise to competitors that they're deep into researching applications for their own products. We get surprised regularly, as happened yesterday, when brent @green78499 reported that 2 S Korean master batch producers are exploring using $HG graphene.
Others get confused by the new Austin HQ (now open!) vs the planned Houston production facility. Austin will have 3 Hyperions, and a significant research focus. With a production of up to 135 tons/year, Austin HQ will amply supply pilot tests of new or expanded uses, further lengthening the length and height of $HGRAF's 'hockey stick' curve. Ultimately, we're talking about a *multitrillion $$* TAM!
The Houston/Bellville facility can enable meeting that market demand, ultimately scalable to around 45-50k tons per year of fractal graphene. That translates to approximately $200,000 x $45,000 of profit, or $9 billion. That growth will happen as Hemingway put it, “Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.” I doubt we’ll get a full build-out in the next three years, but given the cash flow Hydrograph will throw off as they scale up, and the amount of demand they’ve already indicated is coming from several major clients, order growth will be phenomenal in 2026, and especially in 2027 and 2028. By 2029, Hydrograph will not be recognizable; it will be a $50 - $100 billion corporation given reasonable multiples for its growth trajectory and order backlog. For example, 15kT/year by pace by the end of 2028 with a multiple of 25 earnings would give a valuation of $75 billion. That’s about 40 times the present valuation, or $88/share.
As it grows, $HGRAF will likely discover process efficiencies as they operate the Houston facility that will add a few additional tons per year. There are also discussions underway for production facilities in the Manchester, UK area, and elsewhere as facilities are warranted by demand. Each of these facilities will be situated to serve its own demand area of tens of thousands of tons of Hydrograph graphene. Again, the TAM is in the trillions of dollars, and growing. That growth will continue long after 2028. We're looking at a life-changing 24-36 months ahead for those holding, and likely stretching far beyond that investment horizon. For me, I made my 1st $HGRAF buy July 29, 2025. Seems a long time ago, but it's less than a year. Two or three more will fly by, while the value will start climbing that hockey stick.
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@BambroughKevin @LoneyZachariah Ford uses 8200 tones annually of plastic for it's vehicles from recycled bottles. How much graphene would be used in just this scenario?
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My calculations (ai assisted) say capacity at a major acetylene facility in Texas can be added in 18-24 months that can allow Hydrograph to produce 10-20k tonnes per annum.
A typical large acetylene plant addition by global standards can produce 50k tonnes per annum.
Point being. As the orders come the ramp up can be way beyond what the market is thinking.
The narrative will quickly be moving to how many countries will they replicate the Texas model in.
They are approved to produce in all of the EU and UK now. So they should be looking at (in no particular order) Germany, France, UK, Poland. Etc. partnering with the large acetylene producers in each.
I also think there’s partnership to form to speed the manufacturing of the Hyperion units themselves.
Much of the construction and assembly can be contract manufactured if necessary to meet demand that I think will soon prove to be huge. As the masterbatch partners keep adding up we will see manufacturers seeking the simplicity of a drop in solution.
Our company TurboStrata is focusing on advanced nano engineering and custom functionalization to deliver the very best graphene solutions for industry partners.
My father had a civil engineering firm. What I’m building is a nano-engineering firm by developing deep understanding of fractal graphene and how to work with it.
Very exciting… worth coming out of retirement for.
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This is highly relavent to $hg $hgraf too. The slingshot out of this low is gonna be absolutely epic for Hydrograph with all the news in the pipeline.
A single Western International plant (like the one in Bellville) can produce enough acetylene to support 15k tons per year of graphene production, but they can be upgraded relatively easily to double their output.
Of course Hydrograph wouldn't take 100% of their capacity since there are likely contracts to other clients, but its safe to assume, from my reading, that they could secure up to 10k tpa worth from a plant like the Bellville location. That's just on one location.
What are you guys getting? How many tons per year could HG max out at from a facility like the one in Bellville?
Really big things coming for HG, don't let the pullbacks scare you or take your eyes off the prize
Gary Savage@garysavage1
These intermediate degree corrections serve to clear sentiment and build the fuel for the next leg up. They usually unfold as either a sideways churn or a scary ABC correction. In the churn scenario sentiment is cleared by frustrating traders. They have the memory of the good times where price was moving higher and they want that to return quickly. In the churn it takes up to several months to create the fuel (lots of negative sentiment and doubt) for the next leg up as traders get more and more frustrated and then finally become convinced this s**t is never going to move, and they go looking for something else to trade. That's of course when the asset breaks out and the next leg up begins. The scary ABC correction is different. It creates maximum fear and pain but it does it relatively quickly in a matter of 5-10 weeks. These kind of corrections build the fuel by scaring the crap out of traders when the C-wave breaks the A-wave pivot and makes a lower low. Traders become convinced the bull is over and you get a huge surge in volume as dumb money retail and hedge funds panic out right at the bottom. But there is always a buyer for every seller, and the buyers of this panic are the smart money traders. The people that know the fundamentals haven't changed and that this is only a normal sentiment reset to build the "fuel" for the next leg up. This kind of intermediate correction can and usually does spawn a slingshot move back up. That is a very rapid and aggressive rally that quickly gets overbought preventing timid traders from re entering until they finally FOMO in after many percentage points have passed. We haven't had one of these scary ABC corrections in metals in a long time. We are finally getting one. Once we get that final "puke" moment (probably sometime next week) metals (and the stock market) will be set up for a slingshot move back to the all time highs and on to new highs, and in the case of metals big new highs. Below is an example of a slingshot bottom in the stock market. This is not the time to puke your shares/oz./contracts to the smart money right at the bottom. Hang on so you catch the slingshot move back up. smartmoneytrackerpremium.com
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@ericjackson $12,000 share price prediction in 3 years gives it a 200 billion mcap. 4 times bigger than rocket currently. With betr guiding 1 billion monthly revenue by this spring do you still feel your price target achievable in 3 years?
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I’m long $BETR.
And the Street is about to realize why this was one of the smartest executive moves of the year.
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Everyone is sleeping on the most important executive hire in mortgage tech this decade:
Leah Price at Better ($BETR ).
The Street has no idea who she is —
and that’s exactly why this will become one of the biggest “obvious in hindsight” moments of the next S-curve.
Here’s the real story
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Point shot. No screen.
Not good enough from Skinner.
* Sigh *
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@piovincenzo_ @ericjackson They need to be exercised by nov 2026 i believe? If it's a $30 stock that's a 4x on share price however the $9 warrants would be trading around $20 which is over a 10x. Of course if below $9 then warrants worthless. Correct me where I'm wrong
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@OilersJack Great post. Especially when 97 on the ice and the opposition tired lays a muffin for the goalie to stop play. I just yell at my TV. Total emptyhead
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The thing I find frustrating about Nurse is you know when he is out there is you just KNOW a whistle is coming.
He’s either icing the puck or shooting a muffin on net into the goalies chest.
Without the puck it’s going on your net, into your net or he’s taking a penalty.
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"The next trillion in market cap belongs to whoever controls the power that feeds the chips."
That would be the #uranium miners. I look forward to my shares going x20.
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay
AI DATA CENTERS WILL USE 12% OF ALL U.S. POWER BY 2030 Every new AI data center is a power plant disguised as compute & the grid is quietly becoming the new bottleneck in AI scale. The next trillion in market cap belongs to whoever controls the power that feeds the chips.
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@EQS247 @ericjackson Probably spam. Eric said he wouldn't ever charge. Beware
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@ericjackson They do not. Eric what's the subscription include/for? Is it a more indepth analysis and future ideas that will not be posted on X?
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Does anyone even notice the government has been shut for 3 weeks? lol
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Giants are finally having a good game and Jaxson Dart gets concussed. Unfair.
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@JasonOnTheDrums Is it true that the monthly student budget is $16 a day but parents offered $30. If true I think we established the raise in pay, almost double
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@Connor_J_Hughes Go to Winston if they don't wanna play dart but enough of this crap
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Russell Wilson decided to throw the ball out of the back of the end zone, not giving any of his guys a chance, on 4th and goal at the 10.
That sums up the quarterback's performance.
Actually, on all of Wilson's passes (three), he didn't give any of his guys a chance to make a play. #Giants
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