katatonic

@NajamAli2020 We're witnessing the superpower hand-off. Question is, will Trump choke at the last moment, knowing he is heralding the end of the US great power status? It's either that or war with China. If he follows through, it's curtains for Israel. It will cement Iran's status.

With each passing day, the U.S. position is weakening, while Iran’s is strengthening. This is exactly how BATNA works. You negotiate from strength and the weaker you become, the worse deal you are forced to accept. Iran continues to export oil, primarily to China. And let’s be clear: blocking that flow completely is easier said than done. So what does this “blockade” actually achieve? It raises oil prices. It hurts global markets. It pressures U.S. allies. But it does not decisively stop Iran.

@RealWestern2003 It was always going to attack Turkey anyway. Might as well get the ball rolling.

ISRAEL has announced that it will end its relations with Turkey and close its embassy and consulates.

@BarakRavid Looks like Netanyahu really is the President of the United States.

Netanyahu at a cabinet meeting: "I spoke yesterday with Vice President J.D. Vance. He called me from his plane on his way back from Islamabad. He reported to me in detail, as this administration does every day, about the development of the negotiations. In this case, the explosion in the negotiations. The explosion came from the American side, which could not tolerate Iran's blatant violation of the agreement to enter the negotiations. The agreement was that they would cease fire, and the Iranians would immediately open the gates. They did not do that. The Americans could not accept that. He also made it clear to me that the main issue on the agenda for President Trump and the United States is the removal of all enriched material, and ensuring that there is no more enrichment in the coming years, and that could be in decades, no enrichment within Iran. That is their focus, and of course it is also important to us."

@mtmalinen @VP You bring teams and reams of paper. Aides de camp, analysts, psychologists, etc. the fact that the Americans didn't confirmed everything they thought about the Americans for a third time.

You made one mistake. While the U.S. sent just @VP and the two stooges to Islamabad, you brought a major "entourage." You made yourself look needy, and Trump smelled this. You should have sent simply yourself with two assistants to discuss the terms of (effective) U.S. surrender. Because of this mistake, you will, most likely, face one more phase of escalation (which can go "all the way").

@Keir_Starmer You can't dislodge Iran. You have neither materiel or time. Your immediate danger is that orange buffoon threatening a blockade that, frankly, is unlikely to materialize or if it does, unlikely to last. Hate the regime all you want, but you need a bit of realpolitik now.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is deeply damaging. Getting global shipping moving is vital to ease cost of living pressures. The UK has convened more than 40 nations who share our aim to restore freedom of navigation. This week the UK and France will co-host a summit to advance work on a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping when the conflict ends.

@abdulslam2017 Best part is, you're now going to have massive amounts of Saudi capital looking for a new home.

🚨 Saudi Sovereignty: National Interests Above All! 🇸🇦 ​To those seeking to understand the core of Saudi foreign policy amidst global polarization, the answer is clear and decisive. As Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated: ​"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia does not set its policies based on the interests of others, but rather on its own interests. We pursue our interests—whether in the West or the East—and wherever we find them, we will work to achieve them." ​The era of dependency is over. Riyadh is not a pawn in anyone’s gamble. We move according to a national compass that prioritizes our stability, economy, and sovereign rights above any international pressure. 🦅🇸🇦

@crypt0lake Laughably stupid.

kuala lumpur is too religious and closed minded, they apply sharia law everywhere, you will get arrested if you don’t attend the friday prayer!!!!

@lauriekalus @Matt_A_Shea Man, quite the BBC hit piece

The BBC has been speaking to the creators of Iran's viral Lego-style AI slopaganda. Explosive Media admitted for the first time that the Iranian government is a direct "customer" of theirs. Read our piece here... With: @Matt_A_Shea bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

@AmarnathVishwa2 @ProfessorPape Sorry what do you mean nothing has happened? Rationing of fuel and work from home orders are happening throughout south east Asia. Fuel prices have skyrocketed. It's planting season soon. Helium is crucial for semicon manufacturing. What do you mean nothing is happening?

@ProfessorPape You guys have been predicting this since first day of the war. Everytime it was "in next 10 days". Now it's day 44 and nothing has happened. Was it all a hoax?

Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don’t say this lightly: --Not just higher prices --Shortages. Markets are not ready for this

@ImtiazMadmood Notice how quiet Lai Ching-te and Takaichi have become? No, China has other fish to fry, and is focused on its own backyard. Let the Europeans get drawn into this

Iran is not an equal to the U.S.; the blockade pressure is aimed at China, which is indeed a superpower. The U.S. controls its oil, Venezuela's oil, and now it will control so that nothing comes out of Iran. The pressure will be on China and its economy so that they, in turn, force the Iranians to yield to American terms. You strike the master, not the dog. - @ManuelCastillo5

@CollinSLKoh The test for Vivian Balakrishnan's so-called Legalist posture is what Singapore will say if America goes ahead and blockades the Strait.

The most obvious rationale behind this "all or nothing" Strait of Hormuz blockade is to make it so unbearable to even friends and adversaries (such as PRC) that they'll be compelled to prod Iran to reopen the waterway either via diplomacy or by force. @realDonaldTrump/posts/116392448970133700" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…

@AmbDennisRoss So when the rest of the world pays Iran, and their ships get blockaded by US warships, the rest of the world is going to blame... Iran? Well, now...

The blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits. They may attack Gulf oil facilities but it puts greater pressure on Iran. It also puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran.

@ianbremmer @joshuadecter He's blockading. Yeah.

trump declaring the war over doesn’t resolve iran blocking the strait. but trump has said that’s for other countries to figure out, since he doesn’t have an easy way to do it himself. many countries are doing so (by paying for transit). this also explains why the united states has suspended oil sanctions on iran.

if trump’s highest priority now is ending the war he started, best move is define in purely unilateral terms: “the war is over in 2-3 weeks, “i already won,” “i don’t care if talks succeed or fail.” challenge: gives iran very little incentive to concede anything.

@loong_of Looks like UAE is choosing pragmatism. China will either say 'p*ss of or buy my weapons, I don't care' or 'buy my weapons, expel the US and I'll talk to Iran'. Either way, the UAE will pay in Yuan.

Breaking News: UAE Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Khaled, Visits China—A Visit of Great Significance During a Critical Period The Crown Prince will lead a high-level delegation—comprising ministers and business leaders—on a visit to China from April 12 to 14. According to public sources, the visit aims to further advance cooperation, deepen the long-standing friendly relations between the UAE and China, and forge even more robust cooperative ties based on their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which encompasses key priority sectors. Analysis: The UAE is the Gulf nation that has suffered the most severe consequences during the current conflict—having been subjected to Iranian attacks and sustaining heavy losses due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sectors such as tourism and finance, in particular, are expected to face substantial losses both currently and in the foreseeable future. The risks of war have not yet fully dissipated; the prospects for negotiations between the United States and Iran remain dim, suggesting that the standoff may persist for some time—or potentially even escalate into renewed ground combat. For the UAE, a secure regional environment is of paramount importance; failure to effectively manage its relationship with Iran would pose immense challenges to the country's core industries. For many years, the UAE has been regarded as the United States' most critical ally in the Gulf region, as well as the only country in the Middle East to offer U.S. Customs and Border Protection pre-clearance services. The two nations engage in extensive and deep-seated cooperation across various domains, including counter-terrorism, military collaboration, and the pursuit of shared strategic interests. The UAE's Al Dhafra Air Base serves as one of the U.S. Air Force's key hubs in the Middle East, undertaking vital logistical support and reconnaissance missions related to operations against Iran (the base sustained extensive damage during drone and missile attacks launched by Iran in March). Furthermore, the U.S. military also utilizes Minhad Air Base and Fujairah Naval Base within the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, the UAE's oil and gas sector relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz as an export conduit. Recent escalations in the regional situation have already compelled the country to cut production, and some infrastructure—spanning the oil, gas, and aluminum industries—has sustained damage; indeed, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) estimates that a full return to production could take as long as a year. Perhaps, at the onset of the conflict, the UAE harbored hopes that the United States and Israel would decisively defeat Iran and bring about regime change—even if doing so entailed incurring some losses of its own. However, the actual outcome—characterized by Iran's fierce retaliation, the blockade of the Strait, and the consolidation of the Iranian regime's power—has left the UAE profoundly disillusioned and has compelled it to fundamentally re-evaluate the security guarantees provided by the United States. The decline, incompetence, and recklessness of the American empire have clearly rendered it incapable of safeguarding the UAE's interests. China stands as the only nation that enjoys strong relations with the UAE while simultaneously possessing the leverage to influence Iran; China can play a constructive role in the UAE's development, help improve relations between the UAE and Iran, and bolster cooperation on financial security, among other initiatives. These are matters in which the American empire takes no interest, nor does it possess the capacity to address them. Regardless of its ultimate outcome, this conflict has already begun to significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Gulf states; their relationship with the United States will never return to what it once was.

@MaxBlumenthal Why do I have a sneaky suspicion that the US, China and Russia are having discussions at their level about a common problem... Netanyahu and Israel.

In all my life I have not seen so much manufacturing of consent for a nuclear strike And all for the preservation of a psychotic little apartheid state called “Israel”

@nreweel @baoshaoshan Well, he has to sell it.

@katatonic @baoshaoshan Ya. Its in its interest. But vivian made it sound like they are at the moral high ground.

Did Singapore argue against US imposed sanctions on Iran or defy these as they had no standing in international law?

@DanCollins2011 So hey, not one toll booth, but TWO.

We are gonna do a Naval blockade of the SoH in the Gulf of Oman. I’m sure the Iranians never planed for that.

@RyanRozbiani For probably a dumb, mundane reason like they couldn't requisition a flight to Islamabad if the trip wasn't a state department-mandated trip, which would require a minimum 3 days stay in any South Asian country. Something banal and stupid. I'm sure that's what it was.

🇺🇸🇮🇷: Iranian Ceasefire to Continue Till April 21, as per Pakistani Media Al-Arabiya is claiming that Witkoff and Kushner are still in Islamabad, Pakistan to continue negotiations. But with who? The Iranian delegation has left as far as we know. Maybe to talk to the Pakistani delegation? I will update you if I hear more.

@D162Michele Takes balls to offer being punched in the face repeatedly. Even though it's dumb.

Bro is getting his ass kicked in Iran and he wants to start a fight with China? Xi Jinping is laughing his ass off!!🤣

@karaokecomputer Since no one knows when Trump is serious, might as well take him at face value. He has the nuclear codes, so ...

lol Come on man this is so silly. You can’t base analysis by taking Trump at his word. This is another major bluff that he desperately hopes nobody calls. He may order ships to flirt with disaster by interdicting a China-bound vessel, just to see if such a harebrained idea could work. Sure. What do you think would happen next? He would have a geopolitical shitstorm on his hands. China would pull every coercive economic lever they had to pressure him into undoing it, and if that didn’t work they’d finally get the opportunity to show just how obsolete the US Navy is. Of course the US cares about the Strait closure; he’s just pretending not to. Just because the US doesn’t get as much gulf oil as Asia doesn’t mean US gas prices won’t skyrocket the moment major parts of the world experience shortages. The US also have a huge reliance on the Strait for a steady flow of sulfur, helium and aluminum.