kinggcon

@PeterFinchGolf @YourGolfTourYGT so hype. and the follow up apology had me rolling

🤫🤫🤫🤫 @YourGolfTourYGT

WE DID IT. FIRST. EVER. HYPERCAR. WIN. LET’S GOOOOOOOO! 🏆🔥

I’ll “be quiet” / stop streaming if you “be quiet” and retire let’s give the people what they want

This is sending me

@HighyieldHarry doesn’t he like surprises?

It’s over

You dreamed it. We built it. The BMW M3 Touring 24H. What began as an April Fools’ joke turned into reality after your overwhelming demand in 2025. This beast is ready to take on the 24 Hours of Nürburgring—one race only. #WeBuiltIt

@vladsiminel @carrynointerest no. 10 yr avg across BDCs is 6.3%

@carrynointerest The Blue Owl BDC has about 7% PIK. Is that huge?

THE BUBBLE IN SOFTWARE PRIVATE EQUITY (PRIVATE CREDIT EDITION): I posted this roughly a year ago. Given what's happened in the last year, YA'LL NEED TO READ IT AGAIN. I deep dove a ton of lending data and discovered some hilarious stuff. For a while, there have been rumors that a bubble is forming in private credit related to private equity. I'm not sure about that, but I am somewhat certain about a mini bubble forming in software private equity / private credit. LET'S RIP IT. Is there a bigger sign of late stage software than this? It is widely known (imo) that software private equity and strategic acquirers got a bit...aggressive...in 2020/2021. Software M&A hit all time highs on both valuation and cash deployed in 2020/2021: Why does that matter CNI? Who cares? What many of you may or may not know is that the way that lending works in software private equity is kind of f***ing hilarious. Many of the higher growth software companies. Because most of these software companies didn't have very much EBITDA relative to their growth, and according to the data they were acquired at 9.1x(!!!) ARR, PE funds and lenders had to get CREATIVE. Many of these software acquisitions were structured with PIK debt. What's PIK debt? PIK (Payment-in-Kind) debt in private equity and acquisitions allows interest payments to accrue and capitalize onto the loan balance instead of being paid in cash, enabling companies to preserve cash flow during the investment period. You might ask, "Wait...that sounds deranged. Wouldn't the borrower have a massive lump sum due at some point in the future?" The answer: YES. Borrowers eventually have to a pay a larger lump sum as the unpaid interest accrus and compounds. As a pro to the borrower, this allows them to conserve a chunk of cash but creates a PRETTY LARGE obligation at maturity. Why would you do this? BECAUSE I'M FLIPPING THE COMPANY! I'm going to sell the company BEFORE the pik debt reaches maturity and buy another golf stream PJ (I assume they were thinking). I started this thought by saying there might be a bubble. For that to be true, we would have to have lenders taking the other side of acquisitions at a massive rate...WELL I GOT THE DATA. I pulled a ton of data on BDCs. A BDC (Business Development Company) is a type of publicly traded investment fund that provides financing to small and mid-sized businesses, often including PIK debt. While I can't speculate on what private credit funds are doing, I can certainly use this data to figure out: 1) Was there insane lending 2) Does it all come to fruition at some point in the future. 3) Is revenue slowing / M&A volume declining so much that software pe funds won't be able to FLIP the company before the PIK reaper comes for them I munged the data...and check out this graph: We have almost 20 BILLION DOLLARS in software related loans coming due JUST in 2029. Keep in mind: this is only what we KNOW about and the BDCs are HOLDING. The BDCs sell a ton of this debt to syndicators who lump them into CLOs (classic 2008 vibes) and the risk is 'diversified' away. I won't speculate on that. Now CNI, you told us to be worried about the PIK debt. Can you filter for that? I CAN! Good GOD is 2028 insane. We have almost 5b in PIK debt maturing just in 2028. Your next thought might be 'Well CNI, this is a nothing burger. The only way this would be a real problem for software Pe would be if: 1) Revenue growth was slowing across most of software 2) M&A volumes dried up If those both happen, the software PE funds can't sell the company, the PIK debt comes due, and BAM foreclosure. Well, luckily I have data from Carlsquare (a top software inv bank) on revenue growth across their mandates and...oof. Sooo...what does this all tangibly mean? Like what's the conclusion? 1) Software PE funds got extremely aggressive in 2020/2021 2) They used aggressive debt structures assuming they'd be able to sell the businesses before the PIK comes 3) A ton of that debt matures in 2028/2029 4) Software Revenue is slowing (especially from 2021 highs) 5) Software M&A has fallen dramatically (less exit liquidity) There are a few different outcomes: 1) M&A rebounds. YOLO time. Software PE funds sell all their businesses before 2028/2029. Everyone's rich. Hooray. 2) M&A doesn't rebound. All these BDCs / CLOs are caught bag holding shitty software companies that can't refinance. Software companies declare bankruptcy and/or Blue Owl / BDCs own a ton of software companies...write off debt...chaos ensues. Software PE permanently altered. 3) Software PE funds are able to refi all this debt even if M&A doesn't rebound and the game of musical chairs continues We have ALREADY started to see this happen. Feel free to search 'software private equity company bankruptcy' and peruse the results. The pik structure is a KNIFE FIGHT if exit liquidity (via M&A / IPO) dries up. No matter what happens...the next 4 years of software private equity are going to be insane.

"Por qué no compraste Bitcoin en 2011" Yo en 2011:

DAYTONA 24 HOURS. WINNERS. Paul Miller Racing, the #1 BMW M4 GT3 EVO, Connor, Dan, Max, and Neil take P1 in the GTD Pro class. That was 24 hours of pure belief. To the people behind the P1: you’re the reason this happened.

Lando Norris, you are a WORLD CHAMPION! 🧡🥹 #McLaren | #ThisTeam

WIN in the 6iixx.

@launders no chance

Navi

@Faux_Freedom dark wizards come for us all

It gets better 🤣

@9Rain3 no pourover? smh

@launders presidential

earned ourselves the best view for tomorrow. @ArrowMcLaren

@gunschilli bonk

missclicking a seagull on runescape is already a horrifying experience but this just takes the piss.

Real Fam 🚨 We are giving away 200 Rax! 🎄 • Follow @realapp • Repost this post • Comment “raxmas” on any play *on Real* HO HO HO 🎅🏼 *accounts must be 2 weeks old*

@TastyOSRS mclaren W

Been Chilling at Disney land for a bit hope I didn’t miss anything big

@FreakazoidA funding for deadlock. fucking hate these dudes

u guys just actually suck LOL