kiwikipper

@NapierinFrame It’s the last thing Hawke’s Bay needs at the moment.

How much consideration has gone into the fact that shrinking 2, 3 or 4 councils into one will likely mean LOADS MORE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE?! NZ's economy is in the shitter & unemployment numbers are raging. The LAST thing we need is MORE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE! nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-tod…

@wanganuiorg @NZNationalParty @nzfirst They could issue cards with yes and no on them. Red and green. Would that fix it?

The campaign strategy is palpable. @NZNationalParty finds a thing that isn't a thing. @nzfirst mocks a thing that isn't a thing. One is a strong message to foreign Uber drivers & hospitality outfits. The other addresses global grift by global liars - oh, and zero science clowns like Luxon & Swarbrick.

@kellyenz The last five years have convinced me the system is not working anymore. The west has things drastically wrong.

This is worth a read. The framework the RBNZ uses has similar shortcomings as it heavily relies on unobservable factors to generate forecasts and policy insights. Key weaknesses are the centrality of the output gap, neutral interest and exchange rate, and inflation expectations in driving assessment of the stance of policy. None are observable and must be assumed or estimated. Significant policy errors and reassessments result as we learn more about how these unobservable factors are developing. Output gaps that were once thought strongly negative with potential to cause low inflation with hindsight are found to be much smaller. Changes to estimates of the neutral interest rate are serially correlated through time - so an OCR once thought to be close to neutral is later revealed to be anything but. Forecasts of the OCR tend towards long run estimates that shift over time and are misleading. New Keynesian frameworks like that used at the RBNZ have been orthodoxy for a couple of decades. They have also been misleading over much of that time and have been unable to keep up with changes in the unobservable variables that drive them. I think this is a key issue now. There are two key concerns: 1) What level of inflation expectations is guiding decisions? We tend to use long moving averages of actual inflation combined with our inflation forecasts to estimate inflation expectations. More stable estimates are useful in times where we think expectations are anchored. But what if they aren’t? Using our forecasts of inflation, that assume anchored expectations, parrot back at us our priors as forecasts. If our priors are wrong then so will also be our forecasts and our policy assessment. We could easily be too sanguine about the inflation shock that’s just hit us. 2) How stimulatory is the OCR now? The RBNZ is using a neutral OCR of around 3-3.5% that’s conditioned on past lower estimates. It’s hence telling them that policy is modestly stimulatory now. But other factors point to a much higher neutral OCR estimate. Global norms for interest rates have shifted sharply higher. And we have seen much more persistent inflation in recent years than expected. Even with a supposedly negative output gap that should have driven domestic non-tradable inflation down below normal levels. Both observations point to a higher neutral OCR than appreciated. Inputting a higher estimate into the RBNZs framework will cause inflation forecasts to explode along with OCR projections. There’s no easy answers to these concerns. The best we can do is feel our way forward and reduce reliance on forecasts that could be overly reliant on our priors that may be wrong. thematicmarkets.com/research/serio…

@SimeonBrownMP Fixing the basics in law and order. Ditch the Relationship Property Act.

Did you know New Zealand law doesn't actually define consent? The Crimes Act only lists what consent is not. That puts us out of step with the countries we usually compare ourselves with. A re-elected National Government will change that. We'll modernise the law so consent must be actively given, meaning there must be a "yes", not just the absence of a "no". That would make it clear that silence is not consent, and that consent in the past is not consent forever. These are things most New Zealanders already understand. The law should reflect them. The change would give judges and juries a clear definition to work with. And importantly, it wouldn't shift the burden of proof in sexual cases. The prosecution would still need to prove beyond reasonable doubt that consent wasn't given. Already National has made stalking a jailable offence, and we've given victims of sexual violence the power to decide on name suppression. National is focused on fixing the basics in law and order, and modernising our consent laws is the next step. But our work is far from over. National will continue to build the future where every New Zealander feels safe - in their communities, in their relationships, and in their own homes.

@actparty The result of years of politicians not listening.

Nearly one in eight working-age New Zealanders is on a benefit. That should not be accepted as normal.

@saltyreigns Not wanted in Napier.

Yea - I don’t like this. He’s been in Labour since 2008 and was there the whole time Ardern was in power, suggesting he was ok with all of that. WT ACTual F, NZF?

@TheZeitgeistNZ Trade yes. It's essential but these FTA's have been used by parties to have a back door way to undermine our countries sovereignty and influence domestic policies.

It’s not just the India FTA anymore, a remit passed at the NZ First conference pledges not to support ANY trade deals unless they meet an extensive set of criteria. New Zealand is and always has been a trading nation, we’d be buggered without trade/trade deals. I thought NZ First understood this and it was why they campaigned on increasing exports.

@matt_horncastle That is a simplistic view. Many fish hooks in that. One big one in particular. Core services yes. Downsize yes.

Central government needs to order local government to sell everything outside of core services. All government has gotten too large.

@Dame__Jane Madness.

Lock down the birds

@ClashPicks Will I cross $100 by the end of 2026?

CZ is already worth $67.8B by Bloomberg, while Forbes previously put him above $100B, an estimate he rejected 💸 With most of his fortune tied to Binance and BNB, this is basically a crypto market call. Does CZ cross $100B again in 2026? clashpicks.com/event/will-cha…

@NZXVoice I will give him some guidance. Leave regional councils alone. They are not the problem.

🚨 Shane Jones’ powerful opening speech where he said:
“We are the inheritors of the rich Judaic Christian traditions that has made New Zealand the country it is today. And we suffer not one slither of doubt when on our behalf parliaments man or woman stands either intones this prayer or invites someone else to give it.”
 He then called for a moment of reflection and delivered this prayer: 🙏 
“Almighty God, humbly acknowledging our need for guidance on all things and laying aside all private and personal interests. We beseech thee to grant the affairs of this house and our country. To the glory of thy holy name and the maintenance of true religion and justice. The honour of the King, and the public welfare peace, and tranquility of New Zealand through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen” 🔥✝️🔥 God bless @nzfirst #nzpol #nzfirst

@Dame__Jane The paranoia on ZB was something to behold.

Covid but for ..

@TWikiriwhi Correct. Nature rules. This bird flu is being used as another con job.

Did we not learn a single thing from the Covid scamdemic????? You cannot fight nature, and when you try the so called cure is more often *worse than the disease*. God gave us all *natural Immunity*... We either live.... or we die.... Such is life... and those that survive carry the immunity forward... It's outrageous that people still believe in tyrannical political solutions for biological problems. Any interventions ought to voluntary and no birds should be murdered without first having been tested positive. Mass slaughtering of Animals is Barbaric.

@TheConsultant18 That should be the move. The existence of Regional Councils is not the problem.

🟡Time to put K in front of iwi Acting PM David Seymour vows to scrap iwi participation agreements

@EvilArthurFleck The Clark Government introduced the Relationship Property Act that turned life commitment in to an asset duel.

Paul Henry is pissing all over his election chances every time he opens his mouth at the moment. Helen fucking Clark was the stinking communist bitch who opened the door to all the fuckery we have experienced in the last decade & a half. Henry-too rich to have any common sense.

@whetbeak Yes.

I like the ferry names. But Peters giving one a Maori name, despite all his bluster about wokeness and Maorification, tells you where he really lies on such issues. He could have gone Cook and Tasman, for example.

@HobsonsPledgeNZ Funny how he almost admits that he was part of the problem. Enabling a platform for dissent.

The debate has never been about whether Māori place names should exist. As Maurice Williamson argues, it's about naming decisions and whether long established names should be replaced. Read the full article and make up your own mind. times.co.nz/news/williamso…

@rosey_nz @NZNationalParty If Bishop goes it will be good . No practical knowledge.

The big question @NZNationalParty need to ask themselves is if it’s worth the risk of losing this election to try and save the political careers of Nicola Willis & Chris Bishop. They should also rule out TOP now, making it clear their leftist policies don’t align with the right.

@matt_horncastle No. Government is not a business. Understanding what government is for is the first step to effective representation.

New Zealand needs to be run like a business. We need adults that are responsible with money in the government.

@TheZeitgeistNZ Why? What do cities do. Churn. Feed off the wealth created by the producers. Quality of life is more important than constant growth.

New Zealand’s rural economy is humming but the big cities are lagging and economists expect that situation to persist for a couple more years. The cities became reliant on immigration-fuelled housing market growth, and now that net immigration has throttled back, they’re economically stagnating. A new growth strategy for the cities is needed. stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361006…