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Saw Facebook Android training programme and goals. Unexpectedly I already mastered all of those goals. Guess I'm a Google Fanboy alright...

$BTC Bitcoin I spend around half an hour preparing a bearish post and now in the last minutes bulls closed above the last wick so the conviction is lower. Anyway, there are still warning signs on the weekly chart for the first time, please see below: 🚦🐻🐼 Bitcoin flashed two bearish Kyushu Ashi signals on the weekly chart: an end of Kihon Suchi bullish streak and Y pattern bearish breakout below the Tenkan Sen. 📉The potential price target is the Kijun Sen, which is ascending and its value depends on when the price would hit it but it's currently at 80.9K and will keep this value till the 2nd of March. Had we closed below 96,188$ on Bitstamp, the past week's low, I would be quite confident in this target but now as we closed just below the candle body but not the wick, and as this is a weaker KA signal and the daily is still not bearish, I would need an extra confirmation for more confidence. 👀Before the weekly Kijun there is a past kumo at CS support and 3D SSA support which depending on when they are hit may offer support in the high 80s. 🗓️Time-wise, there is a lot of confluence for next daily cycle low between 20th and 26th of February between multiple time cycles. So especially if we make a lower low (but it might be a higher low as well) it's likely to be set on these dates. 1⃣ Now, what is the Kyushu Ashi "end of Kihon Suchi streak" signal? KA candles are based on the lowest Kihon Suchi number from the time Theory - 9. They are simply built by the open 9 candles back and the current close and have no wicks. They are supposed to be used only on the weekly chart as their Japanese name suggests (or on higher timeframes) but they work reasonably well on the daily as well. Kyushu Ashi is an extremely simple concept but extremely useful as it combines in a very clear and simple indicator the power of the Time Theory with the Price Action. KA candles tend to go in streaks of only bullish or only bearish KA candles respecting the time cycles, most often the Kihon Suchi cycles. I.e., if we see a streak of a KS number of only bullish candles (+-2 deviation as usual), followed by a bearish KA candle this signals the end of a major bullish move and may hint for significant cool-off either time and/or price based. This chart illustrates very well how the KA candles work in Kihon Suchi cycles like magic, they manifested this a lot of times in the summer of 2024. 🫴🪄You can see yourself what has happened each time when a Kihon Suchi streak was ended by an opposite color Kyushu Ashi candle. The Kihon Suchi numbers in this case were 33, 17 and 9. Currently on the weekly it's 18 which is accepted as 17. This signal may be interpreted as an upcoming dump or just more time based cool-off. I would bet minimum on a few more weeks of cool-off even if just more chop in this case. 2⃣The second signal we are flashing, Y pattern, is the weaker price-based KA signal which is less reliable. It is when a bearish KA candle closes below another KA candle (and we always require confluence with the main Ichimoku indicator, the close to be below Tenkan Sen or Kijun Sen). From pure Ichimoku's Theory perspective it's enough to close below the body candle but optimally for full confirmation it's best to be below the wick. Had we flashed the Y pattern below the Kijun Sen, it would be easier to trust it. ⚠️ In any case, as we are getting also the time-based bearish signal, this gives somehow more credibility to the Y pattern. However, I would need some extra confirmation mostly from the daily which keeps giving red bearish flags but is still not bearish. Related to the daily chart and the time cycles: 🗓️22nd, 23rd and 24th of February are forecast dates for a cycle low based on multiple time cycles: Taito Suchi 22, and Kihon Suchi 202, 172 and 42. With the usual +-2 deviation 20th to 26th of February sounds like a reasonable window for a daily low, especially if it's a lower low below 89K. 🫴🗓️By the way, this is also a confluence with a weekly low based on a Taito Suchi 29 cycle, if we are to make a lower low. 💀🐍🐂 In the same time, the daily chart is flashing a Chiko Span death cross as CS opened below the candles (still no close to confirm it though). As you see, Kijun Sen (the black line) is pointing up and is still above the kumo which means this still is not bearish. But unless we make ATH this week which seems unlikely soon Kijun Sen will start going down and the price if simply keeps these levels will go below the kumo. If/when Chiko Span and Kijun Sen go below the kumo the daily will confirm its bearishness, currently it's still something like a neutral range with a bearish bias. 🐻 In other words, the daily is in the process of flipping bearish and *might* confirm the weekly bias but it's still not there. I think if MTF flips bearish bears may put to the test at least the bottom of the daily kumo which at its lowest point is sitting at 87.6K. If the daily pumps this week and prevents itself from flipping bearish and the next KA weekly candle is bullish things may look much better for bulls. 🐂 The monthly still remains of course fully bullish. The weekly is also still bullish and will remain bullish even if we go to the Kijun Sen. The KA signals are early and relatively short-termed signals to give us reliable hint of correction OR the start of a full reversal as early as possible. But they themselves at this stage can't flip the chart bearish. If we get bearish KA B pattern signal (close below entire KA candles range) below the Kijun Sen - that's another story and then really the weekly will not be bullish anymore. But as usual let's go one step at a time. For now things remain long term bullish with short to mid-term warning signs. In summary: 1⃣I would expect at least a few more weeks of cool-off either time or price based. Invalidation of this scenario may be this week closing above 104.5K which would print a bullish KA candle. 2⃣There are enough warning signs already for some dump upcoming on the weekly but neither the daily nor MTF is bearish and we need these trigger confirmations for higher conviction. 3⃣If MTF flips bearish, we may visit the past daily kumo bottom at CS which is depending on when we hit it may be at 87.6K. 4⃣If the daily flips bearish - the weekly Kijun Sen becomes more likely scenario and it's current value is 80.9K. 5⃣Forecast dates for a daily low: 20th to 26th of February, if it's a lower low it satisfies also the weekly cycles for a weekly low/bottom.

If this post gets ✅50 RT's ✅200 likes I will give you an $alt chart with all the key levels.. Reply in the comments...

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