@frapepppemaria I think the region is trying to streamline itself, but I think I see some emerging flux in the central part... if I had to bet, I think it will grow further in the next few days.
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Andrea
77 posts
Update: Sun imaged by the Perseverance rover on Mars yesterday, May 16th. The big new active region is approaching the W limb (as seen from Mars), looks complex with lots of spots and penumbral area scattered over a large area. The resolution is too low to say more. AR 4432 is near the central meridian, looking quite impressive. Awaiting Solar Orbiter images to see these active regions in more detail. The big new spot would be approaching the field of view of the future Vigil mission, which will be 60° ahead of us (in the L5 point) and see incoming active regions before they round the E limb as seen from the Earth.
Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov
Impressive development! Looking at Perseverance rover Mastcam-Z images of the Sun from May 11th, May 13th, 14th and 15th we can track the development of both AR 4432 and the new big active region. Turns out they are both growing! The new group was nowhere to be seen on May 11th, but already present with two big spots - leading and trailing, plus development in the intermediate part of the AR - on May 13th, more development in the intermediate part on May 14th and new development above it. By May 15th (latest image) the active region is large and complex and may well be still growing. AR 4432 initially also presented only a large leader and large following spot, but is now showing renewed development in the intermediate region. It is great to have a far side solar observatory - Perseverance rover rocks!
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@JAtanackov Sc25 stuff as usual... I hope it stays like this or grows until I see it on the side nearby…
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Looks like the CIR has arrived: Bt & solar wind density are up, solar wind speed is only slightly elevated so far. If we can get a decently long period of good Bt (>10 nT) and negative Bz (around -10 nT or lower), we could be in for some good geomagnetic activity. Keep in mind - a G2 (moderate) storm watch is in effect today. Keep an eye on the solar wind!
Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov
G2 (moderate) storm watch! The SWPC has issued a G2 geomagnetic storm watch for May 15th for the effects of the SIR and the high-speed coronal wind stream from a large negative polarity transequatorial coronal hole that is currently crossing the central meridian. Mid latitudes will likely see some auroral activity, perhaps as far south (in Europe) as the Alps.
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@learning_yohei No figurati, lo facciamo anche noi, ma in molti preferiscono gli spaghetti lunghi 😄
Italiano
日本からこんにちは🇯🇵👋
イタリア人に質問があります🇮🇹🙋
イタリア人ってパスタを折ってから茹でると怒るの？🥹🍝
日本語
@frapepppemaria Ultimi due giorni impossibile fare osservazione prima dell’alba…troppe nuvole. Il picco quando e previsto non ricordo
Italiano
Day 12 of posting until a new kreutz comet is discovered, hopefully it won’t be long. Tomorrow, weather permitting, i’ll give it a try with my 11x70mm to spot comet C/2025 R3. I live near Turin, one of the most polluted and light polluted areas of all Europe. wish me luck 🍀!
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Name an Italian that has played for Manchester United
You can’t
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@JAtanackov I could bet there's a small cme but expelled to the north. The confinement cage seems to have been destroyed. The next flares I bet will be eruptive.
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BOOM! X4.2 flare from AR 4366! Looks like the big delta in the trailing part went off. More soon!
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#ONEPIECE1167
I'm pulling myself together, this chapter has the potential to be the best chapter of the year, if not one of the best years.
Holy shit, this chapter is insanely good, guys...
And that on my birthday... I can´t believe it, THANK YOU SOOO MUCH ODA!!
GIF
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Already seeing a sharp increase in electron flux, indicating a CME with a strong shock is lifting off. This combined with the previous CME has some serious geomagnetic storm potential!
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@JAtanackov Impulsive flare? It would be a nice surprise if that region were bigger and more complex
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BOOM! X1.1 flare! This one is from the third big active region, still behind the E limb! Possibly bigger and partly hidden behind the E limb. More soon!
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iPhone 16 Pro Max 1 Year Battery Report:
- 399 Cycles
- 96% Capacity
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@monopoly_poker hey thanks for continuing to ruin the game, the script is 100% written in the code, it's impossible for it to be actually certified.
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🟠 Orange Streets 🟠
The Rolling Party just got more festive! This weekend,
roll the dice for free every 2 hours on your
Boardwalk!🎲
If you land on the Orange Streets, you'll get 40% more
chips!
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@JAtanackov who knows there will be other eruptive overs from the central ARs, however I hope to enjoy the show in northern Italy. Do you think there could be the conditions for a high end G4, if Bz remains negative?
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Wow! The HUXt model has a 100% hit probability for this CME as soon as late Sunday, 18-19h UTC! The timing favours Europe. This has major, major storm potential! Stay tuned - but check your weather forecast and charge your camera batteries.
Jure Atanackov@JAtanackov
What a beautiful full-halo CME! This one isn't missing us. Awaiting model forecasts, but this is what a potential incoming major geomagnetic storm looks like.
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@JAtanackov Is it likely the central region currently visible from the solar orbiter that is responsible? Is it possible to see the X-ray flux?
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Full halo CME yesterday afternoon! Unfortunately it seems it is a back side event and will not affect the Earth. Solar doldrums continue.
GIF
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@JAtanackov sorry for asking, where can I find these pictures of the solar orbiter?
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Solar activity is really low right now, especially considering we are likely just past solar maximum. The Earth-facing side of the Sun is pretty barren of sunspots, with SWPC listing only 3 active regions right now (although there may be 4). The sunspot number is 53 and the average for the months so far is only ~70. It is not much better on the far side of the Sun, seen by the Solar Orbiter. There appear to be 6 active regions present right now. Unless there is a surge in activity, May 2025 will likely be the least active month since April 2023. If activity doesn't pick up it may become the least active since mid-2022! It is fascinating how this month the bottom just fell out of Solar Cycle 25.
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Question: how many of us have seen the Milky Way with our own eyes? Under dark skies, not in photos. I'm interested as it's becoming apparent from various posts here on X that *so many* people have never seen it - the reason being big time light pollution.
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@IvanoBilenchi Sarebbe possibile creare più facilmente una versione rootless che funzioni con definitelynotajbtool ? (iOS 16-16.6 arm64)
Italiano
An update on iCleaner for Serotonin: after some testing it looks like setuid is not patched, and as such it cannot work in its current form. I may be able to get it working through a separate root helper, though this requires significant engineering effort.
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