0xKun
1.6K posts
0xKun
@kunlao88
curious on all things ai/crypto/investing/metaverse.
さすが中国人だな。 ホテルが禁煙室なのにダイソンのドライヤーを使って喫煙している。 このドライヤー本体がタバコ臭くなるだろうし、灰などもソファーに落ちてる。 しかもコメントにはバカな中国人が、これを真似すると言い合って盛り上がっている。 この民度 呆れるね
" $SIVE can reach $80b because $LITE is $80b" has to be the dumbest and most dangerous investment thesis ever. People will lose their savings listening to all this misinformation. It's sad and needs to stop (I am starting an anti $SIVE crusade). 1. $SIVE is not a bottleneck (despite it being the poster child of the photonics bottleneck craze). A bottleneck, by definition, must be the company that constrains the production of a massive downstream industry. To constrain production, you must both own hard physical assets and hold a dominant market share position. Sivers has neither. Sivers is a fabless design company that relies on WIN for Foundry services, and with revenues of ~$30 million, they hold near zero market share in the massive datacom laser industry. 2. Supply chain analysis is misleading. In semiconductors (or any industry producing a durable manufactured good) switching costs are near zero while process power, cornered resources, and scale dominate. Therefore, "who has a superior product" is far more important than "who supplies what to whom." CPO external light sources require quality lasers meeting noise (linewidth and RIN) and power (400mW+) specs. $SIVE lasers are far inferior to that of larger peers like $LITE. 3. $SIVE valuation is comically detached from reality. On NTM metrics, $LITE trades at 14x EV/Revenue and 32x EV/EBITDA while $SIVE trades at 50x and 650x (!!) those same metrics. As a permanent AI infra bull, I fully agree that consensus is too conservative; however, they are not off by two orders of magnitude. The misinformation needs to stop. Let's help actually help retail understand what they own.
完全相信你说的萧条，且悲观认为今日萧条百业未来也不会好了。中国发展有多快淘汰就有多残酷。很多人把“民生痛感”误读成“国家崩溃”，但其实它更像是中国式大转型的阵痛。 中国社会过去几十年其实反复经历过这种东西。①九十年代国企改革，下岗潮来了，很多工人阶级一夜之间从“国家主人”变成社会边缘人。那个时代对个人来说是灾难，但从国家结构看，它是计划经济向市场经济转型的代价。②千禧年之后，互联网经济崛起，大量传统实体店、传统渠道商、线下中间商被冲垮；后来电商、外卖、直播、短视频又不断重组商业模式。③到了今天，AI、新能源、智能制造、高端供应链、平台经济继续向前冲，旧行业、旧生意、旧技能、旧人脉关系一夜全废。 所以问题的本质不是『中国有没有发展』而是：中国的发展太快，快到每一代人都会被自己曾经赖以生存的经验抛弃。所以网上那句『中国高铁太快了，请等等人民』无奈又悲情 中国正在以极高频率进行社会达尔文式升级。跑赢时代的人，眼前是黄金年代；被时代甩下的人，眼前是末日崩塌。而中国的残酷就在于：这两种感受都是真的。
新加坡房产市场因为对国外人60%税，高端住宅几乎无人问津，新加坡本地人不可能去买condo，去年几个比较好的楼盘，开盘至今一路降价，很少人买。
Singapore still has the best arrival - immigration takes 20 seconds and my luggage was instantly on the carousel. But a bit disappointed seeing our suitcases being thrown around while disembarking.
China has blocked $META $2B acquisition of AI startup Manus. Regulators reportedly ordered the deal unwound after backlash over AI technology flowing to the U.S.
as i paid my singapore taxes last weekend i realized singapore will never be a great startup hub. because everything just works too well here. it takes me sub 5 mins to file my taxes. this would have cost thousands and way more hours in the US. ride hailing and micro mobility are capped because of great public transportation. healthcare is so cheap you don’t even think about trying to AI compare / navigate care
Introducing USVC - a single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone. No accreditation required, SEC-registered, and a very low $500 minimum. Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Sierra, Crusoe, Legora, and Vercel. As USVC adds more companies, investors will own a piece of that too. Liquidity typically comes when companies exit, but we’re aiming to let investors redeem up to 5% of the fund every quarter. This isn’t guaranteed, but if we can make it work, you won’t be locked up like in a traditional venture fund. It runs on AngelList, which already supports $125 billion of investor capital. And I’ve joined USVC as the Chairman of its Investment Committee. — Go back to the 1500s, you set sail for the new world to find tons of gold - that was adventure capital. Early-stage technology is the modern version. It says we are going to create something new, and it’s risky. It’s daring. But ordinary people can’t invest until it’s old, until it’s no longer interesting, until everybody has access to it. By the time a stock IPOs, most of the alpha is gone. The adventure is gone. Public market investors are literally last in line. This problem has become farcical in the last decade. Startups are reaching trillion dollar valuations in the private markets while ordinary investors have their noses up to the glass, wondering when they’ll be let in. Investing in private markets isn’t easy. You need feet on the ground. You need judgment built over years. Most people don’t have the patience to wait ten or twenty years for an investment to come to fruition. But there is no more productive, harder-working way to deploy a dollar than in true venture capital. USVC enables you to invest in venture capital in a broad, accessible, professionally-managed way, through a single basket of innovation, focused on high-growth startups, at all stages. It is how you bet on the future of tech: the smartest young people in the world, working insane hours, leveraged to the max, with code, hardware, capital, media, and community. Your dollar doesn’t work harder anywhere. There is an old line - in the future, either you are telling a computer what to do, or a computer is telling you what to do. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that transaction. USVC lets you buy the future, but you buy it now. Then you wait, and if you are right, you get paid. Get access here: usvc.com
The entire bubble in photonics is due to a bunch of stock promoters being followed by guys with a bit of cash who don't know much about stocks. There are companies building semi components making zero money that GPT thinks are "bottlenecks" which have repriced 100x in a year
stock market ath been looking at hyperliquid's nasdaq + sp500 perpetuals and their funding rates have been negative this whole move up😹