kuza55

2.1K posts

kuza55

kuza55

@kuza55

InfoSec, ML, YIMBY, Startups

Brooklyn, NY Katılım Eylül 2008
2K Takip Edilen3.2K Takipçiler
kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
I will be eternally grateful to the opportunities I have gotten by moving to the US. Founding a startup has made me appreciate the US so much more than I even had before.
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
US capital markets and business culture are undefeated OpenAI was funded in 2015 in the US Whereas I talked to a Chinese founder who raised in ~2020 and needed multiple term sheets to get rid of the standard clause that he personally guaranteed a return or IPO to investors.
Aaron Bergman 🔍 ⏸️ (in that order)@AaronBergman18

I do find it weird that somehow the US keeps winning despite a much stronger culture of intense education + broadly higher IQ distribution in China And yet somehow the golden goose is always born here (OpenAI -> Anthropic this time around)

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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@AaronBergman18 US capital markets and business culture are undefeated. OpenAI seemed like an insane bet in 2015 that wandered around the wilderness for most of a decade.
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Aaron Bergman 🔍 ⏸️ (in that order)
Aaron Bergman 🔍 ⏸️ (in that order)@AaronBergman18·
I do find it weird that somehow the US keeps winning despite a much stronger culture of intense education + broadly higher IQ distribution in China And yet somehow the golden goose is always born here (OpenAI -> Anthropic this time around)
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@TheStalwart You can prove specific properties of code, e.g. does not contain memory safety violations. But you can't specify "secure" specifically enough to prove it. However, truly new ideas in security are rare, so code proven to not have memory safety issues would be a huge improvement.
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@arpitrage Given the amount of capital it's going to take to convert everything to self driving I feel like the time lag is more acceptable, but admit to not having actually done the numbers on deaths/$.
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Arpit Gupta
Arpit Gupta@arpitrage·
Every traffic death now before mass AV deployment seems like a Covid death in late 2020 after we had vaccines but before everyone had them
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@aarmlovi Refinancing a mortgage is taking out a new loan to pay back an existing obligation though? I don't know the details, but refinancing a mortgage would mean more interest payments and in the context of public finance seems like making future residents pay for current spending.
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Alex Armlovich
Alex Armlovich@aarmlovi·
@kuza55 It's a simple explanation: that's not what's happening at all. Pension reamortization is like refinancing a mortgage when you have 10 years left. It's a recurring reduction in cash outlays spread over time
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Alex Armlovich
Alex Armlovich@aarmlovi·
To clarify: Today's NYC budget *reamortizes* pension debt but does not defer any ARC payments Reamortization is a legit accounting choice, albeit one we can only exploit one time It's just a yellow light (exhausting a one-shot tool) not a red light (skipping required payments)
John Arnold@johnarnold

Deferring pension contributions is the Pandora's box of municipal finance, where a seemingly harmless action unleashes a legacy of complications. Once that seal is broken, NYC will start the descent into the same liability-fueled spiral that has hollowed out so many other cities.

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Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
In the Argument today, Nicholas Bagley and Robert Gordon argue that Democrats have a public sector unions problem: if you want good results, you have to be able to hire the best people and fire the worst ones.
Kelsey Piper tweet media
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Jeremiah Johnson 🌐
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns·
Very, very bad and irresponsible of Mamdani to screw with pensions to fix his budget problem. "Restructuring" pension obligations has led to fiscal meltdown in so many cities. It's the fiscal equivalent of a character wandering off alone in a horror movie. You know how it ends.
Jon Campbell@JonCampbellNY

A breakdown of the "new" $4 billion in aid, much of which we already knew about. The bulk is from authorizing NYC to delay its pension payments. Also includes the $500M from the pied-a-terre tax.

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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@TheZvi It's like asking AI researchers about xrisk, they don't actually know anything about the topic they're being asked about lol.
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz@TheZvi·
This is a pretty crazy low expectation from software engineers, that they went from 1.3x speedup to 2x speedup in a year and then expect this will slow down in absolute terms to 2.5x in another year. You'd get to 2.5x just from learning to better use existing AI.
METR@METR_Evals

Using wording that gave 2x median value increase for March 2026, respondents retrospectively estimate 1.3x value of work due to AI tools in March 2025 and project 2.5x for March 2027.

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kuza55@kuza55·
@cafreiman Kind of a bad example tbh, basically everybody is happy that smoking is less prevalent now.
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@JeremiahDJohns @ArtemisConsort Is this still true at the margins for tech investment vs charitable giving if all you care about is GDP growth (not QALYs)?
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Jeremiah Johnson 🌐
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns·
@ArtemisConsort This is misleading because the raw dollar amount of private investment dwarfs the size of charitable giving On a dollar-for-dollar basis, the average private investment is not more beneficial to humanity than malaria nets or similar GiveWell-rated charities.
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Hunter Ash
Hunter Ash@ArtemisConsort·
Private investment does more good than ~all charity. When we produce new knowledge, new technology, in a way that pays for itself, that eventually benefits the whole world, and it doesn’t require the parasitizing of profitable industry. It’s *sustainable*
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias

Some very sane reactions to my post arguing that successful billionaire businessmen should give generously to charity rather than passing their entire fortune on to their children. slowboring.com/p/the-real-pro…

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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@FabricioNakata @LinkofSunshine I think that on the big questions, the labs will nudge the results to be what the literature supports, aka neoliberalism. But the literature can be wrong and on the fringe, you will get exactly what you described. I definitely find the models saying populist nonsense sometimes
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Fabricio Nakata
Fabricio Nakata@FabricioNakata·
@LinkofSunshine As a neolib I want to agree with this but if the models came out commie or wingnut or something I would conclude that they messed up the training, not that I should change my views, so I don't know how falsifiable this is.
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Vital City
Vital City@VitalCityNYC·
There is so much ground-floor retail that stays vacant for years on end. Is it just because there is less brick-and-mortar demand than there used to be? What is the market or regulatory failure here and how can it be cured or the space smartly repurposed at scale?
Vital City tweet media
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@MatthewJBar @Matthuber78 @nytopinion You have to win elections as a prerequisite for effecting any change. Climate is important, but as long as it's a political loser nothing is going to happen whether Dems focus on it or not.
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Matthew Barnett
Matthew Barnett@MatthewJBar·
@Matthuber78 @nytopinion One would think that whether Democrats should focus on climate change should hinge on the actual importance and urgency of the issue, rather than merely how people perceive it.
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Matt Huber
Matt Huber@Matthuber78·
Hello, it’s me in @nytopinion. The Democratic Party is historically unpopular & hemorrhaging working class voters. Focusing on the issue of climate change —an issue mainly impt to their educated/affluent base—is not a way to reverse this. This marks the end of an era. 👇
Matt Huber tweet media
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@constans There's also so much cope about how billionaires all started rich too, as if they had been upper middle class they would have made it to the top.
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constans
constans@constans·
I don’t think people online get how normal Americans really do think that “billionaires” scammed their way into money Doctors are rich but feel they earned it bc they get paid for labor but see corporate executives as bullshit artists making more money than their work justifies
forward deployed ccp gf@FangYi11101

Listening to the New Yorker politics podcast and the guest is literally describing billionaires as “picking our pockets left and right,” while the hosts coo in agreement. This is exactly the echo chamber that produces AOC’s cartoonish view of wealth creation.

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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@sp6runderrated I can't say I'm actively involved any more, but at least it NYC it was obvious it would take decades of convincing. You just don't jump from arguing about a single project to functional zoning abolition in a decade.
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sp6r=underrated
sp6r=underrated@sp6runderrated·
@kuza55 eh in 2015, I really believed we would be a lot farther along than we are. I would have left instantly if I knew how bad the 2020s were.
sp6r=underrated tweet media
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sp6r=underrated
sp6r=underrated@sp6runderrated·
A few things are definitely true: 1. Yimbys meaningfully changed public rhetoric around housing. 2. Yimbys passed some legislation that led to meaningful housing production increases. 3. Yimbys passed some legislation that may lead to greater development.
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns

The YIMBY messaging victory is so total and complete that Antonio Reynoso, the guy who just five years ago was railing about 'overdevelopment', is now talking about how much we need more market rate housing to build a million new units.

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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@sp6runderrated It was always pretty clear to me that I was in this for the future of society and not myself tbh. The personal housing solution was always to secure the bag.
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sp6r=underrated
sp6r=underrated@sp6runderrated·
4. Nimbys have still basically won on strangling housing production in the regions that led to the creation of the yimby movement. 5. Even if yimbyism succeeds it will succeed too late for the generation that formed it.
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kuza55
kuza55@kuza55·
@loganb We should work on relegalizing SROs to reduce the size of the problem and address it more cost effectively.
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Logan Bowers 🏗️ 🏘️
Logan Bowers 🏗️ 🏘️@loganb·
If you point out that it’s not physically possible to actually move the needle on homelessness under any current or proposed policy, both the moderates and the progressives get really angry. The NGOs get super duper angry too.
Max Dubler 🏳️‍🌈@maxdubler

The city of LA had 43,695 homeless people in 2025. Building a new permanently affordable home requires $708,000 in public subsidy. Building enough subsidized housing to house just the people who are currently homeless would cost $31 billion. LA’s total budget is $15 billion.

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Annemarie Gray
Annemarie Gray@annemariegray·
Final details pending, but some very exciting news this morning: Governor Hochul and the Legislature delivered SEQRA modernization in the budget. 🔥 Updating these 50-year-old rules is a major step toward building the homes New York urgently needs.
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Keşfet

@AaronBergman18 @TheStalwart @arpitrage @aarmlovi @TheZvi @cafreiman @JeremiahDJohns @ArtemisConsort