Eric Yan-ho Lai 黎恩灝

Delighted to receive the advanced copies of my new book,Legal Resistance under Authoritarianism:the Struggle for the Rule of Law in Hong Kong!It will be publicly launched soon. I wholeheartedly thank Amsterdam University Press and legal scholars & sociologists endorsing my book.

One more on data decoupling. Scoop: Morgan Stanley issues China-only iPhones & iPads to HK bankers * Covers entire IBD of 300+ from junior to MD * Devices carry only work email & zoom * GS, JPM etc have yet to implement such policy as.ft.com/r/74b48fcd-a88…

5月19日，《The Telegraph》披露了一个中国秘密监控平台，该平台被用于追踪中共视为“重点关注对象”的个人，包括记者或者外籍人士。 记者 @sophia_yan 解释了这个中共的秘密监控平台，是如何将她标记为“追踪对象”的： 在这一系统中，她的护照号码、中国手机号、过去的证件照片，甚至还有精确的工作单位信息都被完整的录入。 系统还详细记录了她在中国境内的活动轨迹：某个路口曾被抓拍多达 78 次，连超市出入口、地铁站进站口等所有摄像头的捕捉记录都在实时回传。 这个系统还内置了一个「关系图谱」工具，不仅能识别记者与同学、同事的关系，以及是否住在同一街区，甚至连偶然与某人一起被摄像头拍到过，系统也会自动将物理轨迹交叉的人关联起来，编织进同一张“关系网”中。 过去，外界一直在猜测中国遍布大街小巷的摄像头所产生的海量数据，这套庞大的官僚系统能否有效处理。 而这个视频给出了明确的答案：他们不仅能够跨数据库整合信息，还能高度自动化地锁定目标。 一旦监控机器与海量数据实现跨库打通，在物理空间中的每个人，都成为了系统后台可以随时调取的“节点”。

Taiwan Travelogue, a love letter to food and adventure, wins International Booker Prize bbc.in/497rTQb

Morgan Stanley issues China-only iPhones to its Hong Kong bankers ft.trib.al/CZwCC6N

Today, UN Watch called on Michelle Bachelet—who is vying to be UN secretary-general—to explain her record of shielding the world’s worst regimes. UN Watch also sent letters to UN Security Council members, urging them to oppose her bid until she does so. unwatch.org/un-watch-urges…

Hong Kong court has concluded final arguments in trial of Tiananmen vigil organizers, hopes for July verdict apnews.com/article/hong-k…

在曼哈顿唐人街一处不起眼的办公室里，一名华人社团领袖被控设立中国“海外秘密警察站”，监视侨民并压制异议，最终被判有罪。就在同一周，加州一名市长也因替中国发布政治宣传而认罪。专家称，这揭示了中国如何通过“长臂”行动延伸其海外影响力。 bbc.in/4wxpSXr

A defence lawyer for a Tiananmen vigil activist has urged a Hong Kong court not to “pay lip service” to human rights protections, arguing that calls to “end one-party rule” in China should be considered legitimate political expressions. hongkongfp.com/2026/05/18/hon…

Pleased to see that Anthropic's new policy paper on China cites the @ASPI_CTS China team's research as foundational evidence for their position. Links to Anthropic's paper and our research below

Hong Kong court hears final arguments in former Tiananmen vigil organizers' national security trial apnews.com/article/hong-k…

Before the trip, Trump was ambiguous about Taiwan. In the last 24 hours, his language towards Taiwan has changed to more closely resemble what Beijing wants to hear. Even without a formal policy change, these rhetorical changes are a big win for Xi.

Delighted to see (& have contributed a chapter to) the page for this new book edited by Ed Goldring, on a topic political science has spent too little time thinking about: how do we teach about non-democratic politics & the politics of authoritarianism? e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/teach…

专制国家的反对派 现代专制国家的反对派群体，无一例外都逃不过被污蔑、被丑化、被当成假想敌的命运。 委内瑞拉独裁者查韦斯和马杜罗以粗鄙至极的语言辱骂该国反对派著称。除不堪入目的脏话之外，最常见的污蔑就是“美国走狗”、“叛徒”、“卖国贼”、“法西斯分子”、“恐怖分子”……什么脏水都泼给反对派。 查韦斯和马杜罗基本上把所有国内危机都归结为美国指使该国反对派制造颠覆政权的阴谋。 但事实上，等美国真的颠覆马杜罗政权以后，大家发现美国对该国的反对派并没有很支持，反而支持马杜罗的副手继续管理国家，而该国的反对派也没有因为马杜罗被美国扳倒而得势。可见，专制政权动不动就指责本国反对派是“美国代理人”的说法根本站不住脚：美国不一定真的支持专制国家的反对派。 美国关心的是本国利益，支持他国反对派并不一定符合美国利益。 几乎所有专制政权都领到同一套剧本：把本国的反对派群体塑造成境外敌对势力代理人：只要与政权为敌，就会被塑造成国家的敌人和民族的罪人。 俄罗斯的宣传机器也把反对派领袖阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼塑造成“外国代理人”和”叛国贼“，还通过大量水军散布虚假消息，称美国妄图利用纳瓦尔尼在俄国制造颜色革命。当局还多次罗织诸如“贪污”、“诈骗”等罪名阻止纳瓦尔尼参加选举。当然，俄罗斯不止是罗织罪名和发动网军攻击，俄罗斯更热衷于直接暗杀。光是普丁时代疑似被当局暗杀的新闻工作者、富豪、异见人士和反对派政治家就超过200人。维基百科甚至专门列了一个“俄国被杀害记者名单”（List of journalists killed in Russia）条目。 “伪装镇压”（disguised repression）策略在中国同样屡试不爽。中共当局同样罗织“非政治罪”，打击潜在的反对群体和独立的公共知识分子群体，最常见的就是“寻衅滋事”、“嫖娼”、“贪污受贿”、“妨碍公务”。针对不服从中共当局的企业家则罗织商业罪名，比如“欺诈”、“逃税”、“破坏生产经营”、“强迫交易”等等。针对律师和记者，最常见的罪名除了“寻衅滋事”之外，还有就是“颠覆罪”——但“颠覆罪”是典型的“政治罪”，一般上升到定性成“政治罪”的高度，就是当局不准备放人了（就算放出来也准备再次罗织罪名抓回去），比如黎智英被定罪的项目也包含了“政治罪”。 伊朗伊斯兰政权从建政伊始就给反对派罗织了很多罪名，包括“与神为敌”和“尘世腐败”是滥用来镇压反对派最常见的“口袋罪”。伊朗因抗议活动频发，公开政治定罪已经屡见不鲜，除了政治定罪之外，污蔑抗议者是“煽动叛乱”、“恐怖分子”、“暴徒”、“外国代理人”、“道德败坏”、“反伊斯兰”、“卖国”、“渗透分子”也十分常见。 土耳其（埃尔多安时代）和匈牙利（欧尔班时代）也一样竭尽全力污蔑和抹黑对手，比如土耳其给反对派扣上“勾结恐怖分子”和“卖国贼”的帽子，匈牙利也给反对派扣上“叛徒”、“卖国贼”和“外国傀儡”的帽子。 2024年倒台的孟加拉独裁者哈西娜也是长期污蔑反对派群体是“叛徒”、“卖国贼”、“恐怖分子”、“战争罪犯”，甚至反咬一口说该国反对派是“反自由”阵营。与马杜罗污蔑委内瑞拉反对派是“法西斯分子”如出一辙。 这套剧本十分拙劣，但这么多国家都挪用同一套剧本，偏偏还屡试不爽。每次专制政权对反对派大加挞伐的时候，群氓同样群起而攻之。 事实上，几乎所有专制国家的反对派都同样羸弱不堪，除了长期支离破碎，被各个击破之外，还长期无法合作、无法互相协调，反对派之间长期互相攻击也是常态。当然，同样常见的情况还有就是缺乏魅力型反对派领袖来领导和重组反对派力量。这些情况都是专制国家的反对派群体长期难以发动有效的反抗行动的最重要掣肘因素。 即便反对派群体这样羸弱不堪，对专制政权来说也一样眼睛里容不得一粒沙子。 ------ 感谢您支持《中国民主季刊》！ 我们的季刊免费向公众开放，您的下载、传播和阅读就是对我们的最大支持和鼓励。感谢读者！ 《中国民主季刊》2026年第2期（最新一期）下载： chinademocrats.org/?p=6547 往期下载： chinademocrats.org/?cat=8 欢迎订阅我刊的Substack专栏： chinademocratictransition.substack.com/?utm_campaign=…

Pope Leo received Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, in the Vatican this morning.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily removed its print editions before 2026 previously posted online

在香港宏福苑大火后，24岁的香港中文大学学生关靖丰到现场派发传单，要求成立独立调查委员会彻查真相并进行问责，但他随后被校方开除。 过去，香港大学生参与社会事务的历史深厚，但在后《国安法》时代，大学已不再是“保护伞”，学生参与社会事务日益步履维艰。 bbc.in/4tdolCU

A recent Wall Street Journal essay argued that advanced AI may be difficult for the CCP to fully control. When Beijing trains its AI programs to distort politically sensitive topics such as the Tiananmen Square Massacre, ethnic policies in Xinjiang, and Taiwan’s political status, this censorship can damage AI models' habits of inference, bleeding into other areas such as law, history, risk analysis, forecasting, governance, military judgment, and strategic advice. Can China build frontier systems that are genuinely useful while systematically forcing them to lie about issues the Party fears? linkedin.com/posts/human-ri…

China has a social platform with 300M monthly users. Most Western investigators have never touched it. It's called Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) — and a rape victim's warning posted there led to a serial predator's conviction in London. @bellingcat dropped a practical OSINT guide. The key points: ✅ Search in Chinese, not English. English shows a curated bubble. ✅ Censored content is a lead. Blanked-out posts and coded language signal where the sensitive conversations live. ✅ Track by unique ID, not username. Display names change. The ID doesn't. ✅ Capture fast — content disappears. The barrier is language, not access. And if you don't know which emojis substitute for sensitive terms, you'll misread entire threads. A native speaker isn't optional for serious work here. Full guide: bellingcat.com/resources/2026… Want more like this? The Forensic OSINT Friday 5 is free. 📩 forensicosint.com/newsletter

My book, Outsourcing Repression, is now OPEN ACCESS at this @OxUniPress site: shorturl.at/nL7zl

The judiciary is widely assumed to defend democracy. Yet in reality, even when independent of elected governments, courts can endanger democracy—sometimes by enabling executives and sometimes by aggressively fighting them. muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/…