Anth
321 posts






Anthropic filed confidential S-1. Market immediately went to 73% they IPO first. OpenAI has Microsoft and the biggest retail hype in tech history. That gap closes fast. Confidential filing is real signal - typically 3-6 months from filing to IPO. That puts Anthropic in the Q4 2026 window. > But here's what 73 cents doesn't price in: OpenAI is the most anticipated tech IPO in a decade. Banks want that deal. Microsoft has every incentive to accelerate the timeline. If OpenAI files 6-8 weeks after Anthropic, the gap almost disappears. Anthropic is cleaner structurally - no capped-profit complexity, no governance drama. That's a real advantage. But clean structure doesn't beat institutional momentum and a $3T partner pushing from behind. >> My numbers: Anthropic first: 55-60% OpenAI first: 25-30% Neither before 2027: 15-20% Trade here → app.crisp.trade/event/will-ant… Market → #JENulBB" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-ant…
Market is at 73% on one filing. That's overreaction. The real edge is in the delay scenario - both companies postpone if macro conditions shift or regulators move. That outcome is massively underpriced right now. 73 cents for Anthropic is 13-18 cents too expensive.

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