Henrik Larsen

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Henrik Larsen

Henrik Larsen

@larsenification

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC), and International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS)

Vilnius Katılım Temmuz 2019
867 Takip Edilen809 Takipçiler
Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@rm_virtual The Estonians have said they are considering how to help. It is true that the lack of consultation and (social) media bluster puts the European leaders in the uncomfortable situation of having to appear as either giving into US pressure or to publicly defy the US
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Rihards Muciņš 🇱🇻🇪🇺🇺🇦
@larsenification The Baltics do not have the required naval capacity for the particular situation; the contribution would be symbolic. Other specific needs are unknown, since no allies were consulted before the whole thing. And POTUS is just fishing for reasons to question NATO at this point.
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
As long as European NATO cannot defend itself against Russia, it is very unwise to flatly reject European contributions to keep Hormuz open. Germany can perhaps afford to do so, but not Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States. Security-dependent allies need to find something
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Henrik Larsen retweetledi
Ben Smith
Ben Smith@semaforben·
Most convincing argument I've read recently that the Pentagon knows what it's doing, from ... Al Jazeera aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/…
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
The Danish Straits control 3.3 percent of global oil transportation; not quite Hormuz, but significant enough to constrain Russia
Henrik Larsen tweet media
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@ProfessorPape Although this is X, a little more nuance in assertion would be appropriate
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
Geography favors Iran in any war to open Hormuz. The shipping lanes are so narrow tankers and Naval escorts are sitting ducks. Perfect for Iran’s drones and mines. Trump is caught in the Escalation Trap — doubling down only makes things worse
Robert A. Pape tweet media
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
Not everything in the Arctic is about Greenland. Read my latest report on Russia’s growing interest in Svalbard 👇
Geopolitical Intelligence Services@GIS_Reports

Russia’s most important naval stronghold sits in Murmansk, which makes nearby Svalbard strategically sensitive. GIS expert Henrik Larsen @larsenification explains why hybrid pressure around the archipelago will likely continue. Read the full report here: gisreportsonline.com/r/russias-sval…

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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@ProfessorPape Where is the big Russian support for Iran that you are taking about? And isn’t it a bit dogmatic to say that wars can never be controlled once started?
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
The biggest illusion about the Iran war right now is that Trump controls when it ends He doesn’t Ending the war would require: • Israel stopping assassinations • Russia stopping support to Iran • Iran choosing to stop retaliation Once wars enter the Escalation Trap, even powerful presidents lose control over stopping them.
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape

Wars rarely unfold the way leaders expect The Iran war is already displaying four strategic patterns that have appeared repeatedly across modern conflicts These patterns explain why wars that begin with expectations of rapid success often spiral into something much bigger

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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@ProfessorPape Doesn’t make sense to say that the war fractures the U.S.-Gulf coalition
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
Counterintuitive reality: Iran may be winning the war strategically The regime is consolidating power, fracturing the U.S.–Gulf coalition, and driving global energy shocks. Meanwhile Washington believes escalation will restore control. History suggests the opposite
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@ulrichspeck It should be unsurprising that the global reality frozen into international law in 1945 would not endure 81 year later. Might and right are connected.
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Ulrich Speck
Ulrich Speck@ulrichspeck·
If the US had asked the France, the UK, Russia and China for permission, and if they had agreed, the US would act "inside international law". Like Libya 2011. This means that "international law" when it comes to the use of force, is dependent on the interests of a few states.
Sophie Pedder@PedderSophie

The 🇫🇷 Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, equipped with > 20 fighter jets, is on its way to the eastern Med In case not obvious this is a defensive op, to protect 🇫🇷 and regional allied interests. France says 🇺🇸🇮🇱 are acting “outside international law”

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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
@rochowanski It was my paraphrasing about Stalin’s comment about The Vatican
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Henrik Larsen
Henrik Larsen@larsenification·
2025 was the year when the West woke up to the fact that small modular reactors are no longer a future energy source but critical to winning the AI and energy security race cepa.org/article/tech-2…
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