Raj
947 posts
The rupee is stronger but why are bond yields still rising?
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@Balanced_2016 Also Oil still looks technically strong even after the deescalation headlines. Not sure, if the market calling a bluff here
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@Balanced_2016 Thanks Raj, this gave me some good insights.
Overall, do you think this ends with a face saving US/Israeli exit that still weakens Iran’s proxies longterm, or does Iran come out strategically stronger in the region thanks to China’s backing?
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x.com/Balanced_2016/…
Yes China has indeed waved the green banner.
It is a matter of time before Iran too comes round. They are going to extract a heavy deal.
Hmm and that is the loud salvo of entry into nifty that I have been talking about
Rajendran Vasudevan@Balanced_2016
The cut and run preparatory is underway. China while still behind the scene, it is still very central to the deals being attempted.
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Can someone please tell me in which locations are these layoffs happening?
Govindraj Ethiraj@govindethiraj
Oracle's move to lay off 12,000 India employees last night may be biggest single shot workforce reduction move in India, particularly white collar. There will be after shocks including in already tight job market. Hopefully this is more to do with Oracle and its financials + AI infra investment plans than IT services as a whole.
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@TheClubJunto Intresting measure you got, FII Selling Intensity
Never seen it anywhere 👍
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When to Start Buying in the Current Market
1. Don't buy the dip. The stock can dip further 50%.
2. Don't buy low P/E. Q4 Earnings will be bad (so P/E will rise).
3. Buy when liquidity wave turns. Follow the speed of FII outflows, not just the volume.
How to Follow Liquidity:
Don’t Buy Stocks Till FII “Selling Intensity” Is High
a. Selling intensity is a measure of the speed at which capital is exiting the market, rather than just the total volume of exit.
b. “Net FII Outflow” tells you how much money has left the building. “Selling Intensity” tells you how fast everyone tried to escape through the exit door at the same time.
c. DIIs can absorb FII exits only if FII selling intensity is low. SIP money comes in slowly every month. But FIIs have mountains of ready stock holdings. If they decide to sell fast, DIIs have no defence.
Liquidity Impact on the Markets
FII Selling Intensity Per Trading Hour = (Total Outflows in a Month) ÷ (Number of Trading Days in the Month x 6.25 Trading Hours Per Day)
JAN-JUNE 2024
FII Selling Intensity:
₹18 cr per hour
FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹14,000 cr
Nifty 50 Return: 10.4%
(1 Jan to 30 June, 2024)
NOTE: Low FII selling intensity; High Nifty returns.
JULY-DEC 2024
FII Selling Intensity:
₹84 cr per hour
FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹66,000 cr
Nifty 50 Return: 1.2%
(1 July to 31 Dec, 2024)
NOTE: High FII selling intensity; Low Nifty returns
JAN-JUNE 2025
FII Selling Intensity:
₹152 cr per hour
FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹1.14 lakh cr
Nifty 50 Return: 8.2%
(1 Jan to 30 June, 2025)
NOTE: High FII selling intensity. DIIs aggressively pushed up Nifty 50 to hold sentiment, but could not defend midcaps & smallcaps against this intensity. By early 2025, 70% of all midcaps & smallcaps were trading below their 200-day moving averages.
JULY-DEC 2025
FII Selling Intensity:
₹115 cr per hour
FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹86,000 cr
Nifty 50 Return: 2.4%
(1 July to 31 Dec, 2025)
NOTE: Moderate FII selling intensity; DIIs once again managed to defend Nifty 50, but could not stop the bloodbath in midcaps & smallcaps in the second half of 2025.
JAN-MAR 2026
(Only 3 months)
FII Selling Intensity:
₹339 cr per hour
FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹1.27 lakh cr
Nifty 50 Return: (-) 14.7%
(1 Jan to 30 Mar, 2026)
NOTE: This was the FII velocity shock (high-speed capital exit in a very short period), which DIIs were unable to absorb. Nifty 50 finally capitulated.
When to Start Buying Stocks
a. Stage 1 – High Intensity: Till FII selling intensity remains high, the stock prices may only go down further. So, stay out.
b. Stage 2 – Moderate Intensity: When FII selling intensity moderates, stock prices may stagnate (further declines may be halted). It may still not be worth deploying your hard-earned cash in risky assets if there is stagnation (= no visible upside.)
c. Stage 3 – Low Intensity: Once FII selling intensity reduces significantly, then don’t wait for FIIs to become net positive buyers. You cannot wait for 100% safety. When there is 70-80% visibility, go all-in before the entry door closes.
d. Remember, there are 4 risks at present: (1) Global AI crash (2) Demand destruction in India due to IT job losses (3) Indian rupee depreciates further, triggering FII capital flight (4) SIP inflows slow down due to poor or no returns
Against these 4 risks, you need to at least see a clear visible upside (better than FD returns) to deploy your life's savings in market-linked assets. What happens if any one of these 4 risks materializes? So, go slow, respect risk, and watch the liquidity.
ENDQUOTE
“Earnings don’t move markets. Liquidity moves markets.” – Stanley Druckenmiller, Legendary Investor
@arabicatrader
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@TamalBandyo Tamal, what do you think is more likely to happen first if the current war situation persists, India’s 30Y yield crossing double digits, or the INR crossing triple digits?
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10 year Bond yield shoots up to 7.03%, highest since October 2024 when Repo rate was 6.50%
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What else fuelled it?
1) The 2023 Budget imposed slab rate taxation on debt funds. Equity at 12.5% looked sweet.
2) SIP & then SWP sold as the catch all remedy without any regard to fund category
3) Capital controls. Kept money tied up in Indian stocks.
Vikas Vij@TheClubJunto
India Chased Multibagger Dreams; Real Economy Paid the Price 1. Economic Survey flagged dangers of "over-financialization" 2. 82% youth invest on finfluencer tips (CFA Report) 3. Industry Capex down 26% YoY; Family Offices ranked 3rd globally in non-core deal volume INSIGHTS: Economic Survey 2024-25: Warning Drowned in Market Euphoria a. Survey’s Chapter 2 Title itself warned: “The Cart Is Running Before the Horse” (“Cart” is the financial markets; “Horse” is the real economy.) b. Tabled in Parliament 14 months ago (31 Jan, 2025), the Survey stated: “Uncontrolled financial sector growth comes with a cost to the real economy. India should ensure a gradual and orderly development of its financial markets.” c. “When the economy reaches a state of over-finance, the financial sector competes with the real sector for resources (such as skilled labour and capital investments).” d. “Financial engineering creates complex products whose risks are not known to the average consumer. These products are designed in a way that lenders have no “skin in the game” (no risk)." e. “Critical Risk”: “Dominance of financial markets and asset price considerations may overly influence public policy, including regulatory policy.” It means, the whole system promotes stock market as the nation’s growth engine, while the “horse” (real economy) gets left behind. Private Sector Focus: Promoter Selling, IPOs (OFS), Rise of Family Offices a. Economic Survey 2025-26 (29 Jan, 2026): “Indian private sector is historically risk-averse, comfortable with technology import & licensing, and has failed to step up the primary engine of R&D.” b. “In absence of innovation, India risks remaining a “service provider” to the developed world, vulnerable to technology denials and supply chain shocks." c. Private Sector Capex: Despite record corporate profits, Capex in FY26 was projected to dip 26% YoY (₹6.56T in FY25 to ₹4.89T in FY26). Where is the promoter interest? (Read next point.) d. PwC Report (Dec 2025): Family Offices in India are rapidly moving into investments outside their core businesses. NexGen of India’s family-controlled empires is “taking a leaf” from global private equity and VC playbook. e. Indian Family Offices have grown from 45 in 2018 to 300 in 2024 (during years of market boom). Indian Family Offices now rank third globally in annual VC deal volume, behind only the US and the UK. f. India added 3,000+ new UHNIs (ultra-high net worth individuals) in just one year (thanks to the market boom), creating a deeper pool of “sophisticated investors” outside their core businesses.” (Hurun Wealth Report) g. Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran (Nov 25, 2025): “IPOs in India have become exit vehicles for early investors, rather than means of capital investing.” In Apr-Sept 2025 quarter, 55 Indian IPOs raised ₹65K crores. Most of it was OFS. (Buyers were Indian mutual funds and retail.) Indian Youth: YOLO Trading a. The Wall Street Journal recently used a phrase: “You Only Live Once” (YOLO trading). It is leading young people to treat markets like a casino. They haven’t seen that stocks also go down. b. India’s youth have been losing their family savings in F&O trading and chasing momentum stocks. SEBI Survey 2025 showed that 91% traders lost money in F&O. 76% of these participants were “Low Income” traders (annual income below ₹5 lakh). The system did not educate them, but encouraged them with non-stop T20 World Cup ads featuring celebrities. c. CFA Institute Survey (Mar 2025) showed India has 3.5 million social media “finfluencers” (financial influencrs). Over 82% of the followers of these finfluencers made investments based on their advice. d. Average finfluencer age is 31 years, with 60% under 29. Only 2% are SEBI-registered. 59% have commercial partnerships or sponsorships (vested interest). 63% fail to disclose these financial affiliations. 91% are on YouTube; 64% on Instagram; 61% on Facebook. (SEBI Investor Report) e. CMIE Data: Declining Labour Force Participation Rate (below 40%) indicates many youth have dropped out of employment activity. They are not even actively looking for jobs (LFPR means that). One must also remember trading activity occurs between 9:15 am and 3:30 pm on weekdays, which are peak hours for work, apprenticeship, and vocational colleges. f. Nithin Kamath (Zerodha) in 2024: “A whole generation of people were sitting on the fence and thinking whether they should trade or not trade. They have all jumped in.” ENDPIECE: Lottery-ization of India “How many of you want to be rich?” Hundreds of hands shoot up at a packed conference hall in Bengaluru. The attendees are responding to Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives research at Motilal Oswal. “Friends, if you follow this (pointing to technical charts on the screen), trust me, you won’t lose.” He continues: If you win, you can rule the world.” Hoping to “rule the world,” Anand, a 23-year old who travelled 300 miles to attend the Bengaluru conference, said: “I’m a poor person. But I have a big dream for my life.” – Quoting from Financial Times (July 18, 2024) @arabicatrader
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@tightvcptrader If you believe in time cycles in trading, life has its own cycles too.
Every 5 years brings a phase of mini consolidation, 10 years a deepr reset, and 25 years the most painful, but also the most transformative.
Without consolidation, no trend can sustain. Just my few cents 😀
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@tightvcptrader I think just like markets, life goes through phases of consolidation before the next breakout.😀
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@BalakrishnanR @SEBI_India @hdfcmf @Quantum_MF @AjitDayal2 Switch to Quantum MF gold x.com/Quantum_MF/sta…
Quantum Mutual Fund@Quantum_MF
@learning30391 @nitinbhatia121 @AjitDayal2 We’d like to reassure investors that there is no change in Quantum Gold Fund’s fundamental attributes. We will continue to invest in physical gold and ensure each and every unit is backed by physical gold.
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Dear @SEBI_India . Please do not permit an ETF to do this. And for those who want to exit, please make @hdfcmf pay the capital gains tax. This is so wrong
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The HDFC AMC move to allow up to 50% derivatives in its gold ETF has created an uproar. Here's my take on it.
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@Balanced_2016 Hi Raj, in your view, what constraints, political, strategic, or global, would stop the US from resorting to something like Hiroshima and Nagasaki today? Or is that completely off the table in the current geopolitical setup?
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If I were an Israeli supporter I would take this warning seriously.
You don't need anything more than the 1950s UDMH N2O4 rocket motor.
The difference now is the
Chinese advanced ceramics that delivers upto 3700 degree celcius of heat shield
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@Sidharthjain84 From a technical perspective, as a technical trader, I see fresh drastic selling likely only if bears succeed in breaking the monthly neckline of the double top.
If they are successful in doing that, then 20K and 17K will get activated 😇
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@learning30391 I hope we get a lower circuit somehow on Monday 😜
That could be the bottom.
Jokes apart, we are close, would missing the last 5-10% matter over longer term?
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Does anyone remember when was the last time both equities and 10Y gov bond gave negative return over last 12 mts?
*unprecedented times !
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@Sidharthjain84 Just to clarify, I’m not trying to corner you by asking the timelines, I respect your views 😁
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