Levi Shemtov

@investingluc Wouldn’t the trump/xi meeting in beijing on may 14-15 be kinda bearish for $MP and $UUUU as Trump making a deal with the Chinese would hurt US companies?

How to find the next theme (and what is it)? Well, I'm not going to be too quick to try and “find it”...the next big theme almost always reveals itself through a catalyst or story. Can be subtle at first, but some examples: > the space theme's catalyst was spaceX ipo > software theme's (short side) catalyst was anthropic > the peptide theme's catalyst is FDA reconsidering peptide restrictions > memory theme’s catalyst was HBM shortages > semi's catalyst was insane earnings Don't just look for the next "theme", look at the biggest stories and their potential to re-price entire sectors. p.s The growing story + catalyst I see right now is rare earths + critical minerals: - critical for semiconductors, defense, drones, robotics - G7 openly discussing reducing china dependence - trump/xi meeting in beijing may 14-15 - us gov't taking stakes in strategic companies - rare earth restrictions becoming geopolitical leverage - national security implications This reeks of a huge re-pricing theme. $MP, $UUUU, $USAR, $UAMY, $CRML.

@GTO_Diaper Four kings on the board and you have the nuts, easy

Double Board 💣 Pot 🙄 standard

@levelsio Uruguay is left

What's interesting about the Venezuela operation: after this South America is almost completely right wing and allied to the US And except for Colombia, Brazil too is now completely surrounded by them Brazil is ruled by Lula, a self declared Communist, and a far-left leader who likes to ally himself more with Russia, China and Iran than the US Maybe what the US is trying to do here is create a new Pax Americana with a North and South America that's completely allied with the US Which they could call making (greater) America great again

@Saul_Sadka Great analysis

Twelve post-Twelve Day War Israel-Iran War observations: 1. Israel was done with its targets Once Israel bombed the "countdown clock"—that counted down to the IRGC's planned destruction of Israel on September 9, 2040—it was clear that Israel felt it had done enough, you don't fly a plane 2,000 miles round trip for that. The operation set Iran back by 20 years and saw not a single Israeli or US military casualty. The Iranians were so totally defeated that they didn't even dare harm any US personnel, telegraphing their paltry face-saving response in advance. 2. The Players and the Played When the books are written, Netanyahu and Trump will be revealed as the two players, with everyone else being the "played." Don't even be surprised if Trump's F-bomb comments were coordinated with Netanyahu to allow him to tell his cabinet hawks: "Sorry, Trump be crazy." 3. Regime Change? The IRGC is totally spent and humiliated, and no attempts to put a brave face on it can save them in the long run. Their supporters are aging out. In effect, they are the unwilling vassals of Israel and the USA. Their leaders live and operate at their pleasure and can be eliminated on a whim. The only question is how much, and for how much longer, they are able to immiserate Iran's 90 million people. The "regime change" threats and the bombing of the Basij HQ were signaling what would be the next stage, and the 'permitted' and silly lashing out at Qatar was letting them off the escalation ladder into what is, in effect, a humiliating surrender. While regime change would indeed be a dream outcome, it is much better to come from the inside and not be tied to Israel or the USA. Iran is still a danger via its sleepers in the West—an asset they would still be able to use after their fall, but less so after an implosion. Furthermore, regime change might be messy, and there is no reason for Israel or the US to have that mess blamed on them. From a purely Machiavellian perspective, it's better to have a weakened, toothless regime in Iran, under constant Israeli attrition as they try to rearm, than a strong, new Persia. It provides a useful foil to help unite Israel with the Arab states. 4. Legacy at Stake There was (in my mind, and I wrote as much) no doubt that Netanyahu and Trump would dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, since they had both said they would, making an Iranian nuclear breakout a legacy-destroying cataclysm for both. Now, with both claiming the program is destroyed, we can be assured that it actually is—since the destruction of both their legacies would be even more acute if they were proved wrong now. And there is also now minimal impediment to continuing to attrit the program. 5. IRGC Rebuilding? The IRGC may indeed try to rebuild, but if it was hard enough and drained so much of their resources when they were merely infiltrated by Israeli intelligence, it will be much harder now that they live inside what, at any minute, might be Israeli airspace again. Also, with the regime so obviously penetrated from within, expect the levels of paranoia and recriminations to be off the charts. Expect plenty of executions of all the wrong people, while Mossad assets continue their work in safety, as usual. 6. Head of the Snake The days of Israel not attacking the head of the octopus when the "tentacles" attack them are over. Israel will be chomping at the bit to use any proxy attacks as a casus belli to keep suppressing their rebuilding efforts. Since the Rubicon has been crossed and Iran's cards exposed as a giant bluff, any proxy attack is liable to bring kinetic responses on Iran. Proxy warfare is great—until the other side decides to bypass them. They might not even bother, since they fired over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel (in addition to at least the same number again they lost on the ground) and failed to kill a single serviceman or cause any strategic damage. What's the point of these programs? They can spend 5 years rebuilding their stocks at the cost of tens of billions just to kill a minibus load of civilians who didn’t make it to the bunker? A strategic player wouldn’t bother. Without the nuclear tips, these are no deterrence. 7. Trump’s Deniability Strategy The war is over, and now Israel stands alone again. That's what Trump needed to appease the disinformation-infected parts of his base who promised World War 3. If war restarts between Israel and Iran in weeks or months because the Houthis start up again, Trump can disclaim all involvement. That's what today was about. The start of the war saw the opposite: The USA disclaimed any connection until it was clear the Israelis were crushing the IRGC handily, and then suddenly it was "we." 8. Eleven Days to Decapitation This war unraveled 40 years of Iranian buildup and virtually decapitated the regime in 11 days—and did so without a single combat loss, either of men or manned equipment. There is simply no precedent for anything like this in world history. Nothing even close. 9. Israel Flips the Proxy Script Israel has totally flipped the script. It can now attack Iranian proxies at will, with Iran not daring to fight back directly—the position Israel was in until 12 days ago. At the same time, what is now obvious is that Israel has extensive links with armed opposition inside Iran and is now free to mount an internal proxy war against the IRGC. 10. No Proxies When It Mattered Forty years of Iran building proxies to attack if they dared to attack—and those proxies were totally absent when the time arrived. Simply brutal. 11. Israel’s Century Secured Israel has secured its place in the Middle East for a century via overwhelming force, the only currency with any value in the region. Sinwar's folly sank the Axis of Resistance, which was the third great attempt to eliminate the Jewish state. now it is surrounded by states that are either allies, vassals, or like Turkey facing the Kurds, busy with internal issues. 12. The Uranium... And where is the enriched uranium? Netanyahu publicly stated, with a glint in his eye, that they know where it is. Don’t be surprised if the most audacious part of this war will one day be revealed to have been a special forces operation to extract it. More likely Israel knows its under the rubble, and will be monitoring that rubble from afar for the foreseeable future...

@mendlb You should have left your doll back home. This one’s on you.

Halbershtam used this to find and confiscate my incredibly well hidden ipod with goyishe matisyahu tracks on it in mesivta, thanks a lot mr. adams for ruining spring 2008 🫤

@ShaykhSulaiman They ALMOST have nuclear weapons, that’s exactly why they need to get stopped before they become nuclear like Russia and become impossible to attack. But you knew this already. Stop misleading.

Looking for a solid graphic designer for a brochure. Tag 'em below. Thanks!

@JTLonsdale Qb6 black queen is forced to move and no matter where it goes next move is mate (is it takes the Knight on B4 then capture with pawn)

This is a fun chess puzzle; we teach kids to look at all their checks and takes, but all the standard moves you inspect don't work. It relies on an unexpected insight, and a fun trick - rare for a mate in 2!

@ismail_lamie @Mr_Andrew_Fox What country was Gaza part of before 1967?

@levishemtov @Mr_Andrew_Fox Actually it is. As occupying power, it is under the obligation of ensuring the well being of the people it occupies. Gaza is occupied territory since 1967, as most recently confirmed by the ICJ in July 2024. It’s called international law. Google it.

Hamas doesn’t declare cause of death on any of their lists, which makes it verifying those death incredibly challenging. We know that the natural death rate in Gaza was 514 Gazans a month. So that gives us as many as several thousand Gazans who died of natural causes being claimed by Hamas as “murdered by Israel”.

@ismail_lamie @Mr_Andrew_Fox Or you know, just release the hostages and surrender. Israel isn't responsible to aid it's sworn enemy.

@Mr_Andrew_Fox “Natural cause of death under “normal” circumstances of siege”, not when you have bombed the hell out of the entire healthcare system and are preventing the most basic medical supplies and drugs from entering (deliberately inflicting life threatening conditions, i.e. genocide).

@griff3682 @bethanyshondark Source?

Israel killed children accidentally over the course of a war it did not start. They have never gone into Gaza, taken two children, held them in a tunnel for a month and then strangled them and held onto their bodies for a year before parading them. There is no moral equivalence.

@MikeBrownsWorld @HugoTheHoss @TicketsData @farzyness Right but you can make more than just 100% return on your money

@levishemtov @HugoTheHoss @TicketsData @farzyness Options require getting the timing exactly right.

I shall repeat myself for the 69th time. In a world where Tesla Robotaxi exists, Uber is worthless. An app that connects humans to humans for higher per mile cost, a worse experience, worse safety, and longer wait times is literally worthless. Even if they were to add self-driving cars to their app, it will a) immediately disrupt their existing fleet of drivers b) will never be cost competitive with Tesla because Tesla has the lowest cost per mile AND they don't need to give a 3rd party company a mark up. Plus, the second a car company manufactures enough self driving cars so that their cost per mile is significantly lower than a human driven car, the forcing function to give Uber their business is nonexistent. Why give Uber a piece of the pie for no reason when you can undercut them massively AND offer a better product with just an app download? What's more likely to happen is that the biggest manufacturers of self-driving vehicles will be running on Tesla's proprietary FSD software, forcing those manufacturers to HAVE to be on Tesla's Robotaxi network.

@HugoTheHoss @TicketsData @farzyness That’s not how options work

@TicketsData @farzyness Because of math. Hold Tesla and it goes up 500% is way more profitable than shorting Uber which the upside is at most 100% in the case it goes zero.

@_Jase_C_ @GadSaad @piersmorgan What are you talking about? They would have if they had the means. They killed Jews as fast as they could.

@GadSaad Hey @piersmorgan why don't you ask gad why didn't the Nazis kill 6 million jews in a 15 min?? By @GadSaad logic.... It wasn't a Holocaust..... Because they didn't kill them quickly.

Why @aaronjmate and his dad @DrGaborMate drew my ire. 1) Dr. Mate utilizes his narrative of victimology as a form of existential credential to speak on behalf of the Palestinians in attacking the evil Jews/Israelis. Dr. Mate was a six-month old infant when he "survived" the Holocaust. Six-month old infants do not have any conscious memories and as such to argue that he is a Holocaust survivor stretches credulity and decency. By that standard, a person who was a spermatozoa in his dad's testicles during the Holocaust also "survived" the Holocaust. It is a form of nonsensical narrative meant to bolster his theory of childhood trauma. What I experienced in the Lebanese civil war as a 10-year-old and 11-year-old child is INFINITELY more violent than the unconscious "trauma" that he experienced. Yet, I don't use my tragic childhood to espouse nonsensical theories.

@TheKitchenPB why not

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@Sammich757 @Mr_Andrew_Fox @LouSirr101 He’s saying that even by Hamas’ own figures, which would be the most extreme ‘to their favor’, the hyperbole of ‘70% were women and children’ will be debunked.

@Mr_Andrew_Fox @LouSirr101 So you're saying they're not reliable but you're using unreliable source to say they're unreliable? Got it.

This is a lie, I’ve got all the receipts to prove it conclusively, and the publication of my report (delayed by a few weeks due to new info) is going to put egg on the faces of all the international media who parrot this crap unthinkingly. I cannot wait for it to be published.

Having listened to the arguments of both sides over the last year, I'm no longer on the fence about Israel's war. Here is why:

@beriuzy Lebanon will have peace and prosperity now that Israel got rid of Nasrallah and Hizbollah, who have held your county hostage for the last 20 years.

Chopped both majors on the same day after a tough month. I guess I love ACR now🤣 What a day. Was supposed to go party & see my favorite DJ but i just had a weird feeling... PS: Stop the war in 🇱🇧🇱🇧🇱🇧 Lebanese people do not want violence😢

@TerribleMaps Barkistan

Pakistan

Uruguay Noma!!! 5-0