murr

NBA Wednesday Play #1 🏀 Keldon Johnson U 9.5 Pts (DraftKings -125) 1.25U to win 1.0U Saw extra minutes due to Castle foul trouble. He was a team worst (-13) +/-. The Spurs are down 0-1, this is a must win game, expect to see starters get extra burn. Projecting him for 18 minutes. Keldon averages 9.9 points per 18 minutes during the regular season. These #s are likely to decline in a playoff setting, as we saw in round 1 where he was under in 5 of 5 against the Blazers, averaging 6.2 ppg. Watching back all 10 of his FGAs, 8 of his 11 points came on fast breaks. Keldon averaged 2.9 transition points per game during the season on an average of 23 minutes. Transition points are harder to come by in playoff setting, this production look more so a 1 off rather than sustainable. Chart by @propsdotcash 📊

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Builder 🏀 6+ Assists Under 35.5 Points (FanDuel -123) 1.23U to win 1.0U SGA has 7+ assists in 4 of 4 playoff games this season and 6+ in 26 of L37 playoff games overall (70%). He’s under 36 points in 30 of L37 playoff games (81%). Obviously some correlation here as more aggressive defensive schemes on opposing teams top option leads to more assist opportunities and less shot attempts. JJ Redick is a coach that pretty religiously sends aggressive coverages on top options. SGA has 6+ assists in 9 of L10 against the Lakers and less than 36 points in 8 of 10. Obviously in a high leverage playoff game, defensive schematics will only be intensified. SGA’s is good enough that he can get his 30 against this Lakers squad, but think it’s highly unlikely he goes off for 36 in game 1 at home, when OKC’s role players likely play better & we shouldn’t see massive minutes for SGA with a 15.5-point spread. Charts by @propsdotcash 📊