L McCracken

@JasonGregor They had four good games in a row. It seems those four games were more the exception than the rule.

Oilers last night played like the team in October-February. Gifted too many goals with horrible puck management. Hadn’t seen that game for the past month, but when they play like that they are easy to beat. Tonight in San Jose they need a much more mature, committed effort.

@Cmdr_Hadfield All I’d be thinking about is how much I’d have to go to the bathroom.

4 people are in there with hopes, dreams, risk and the unknown. It makes me breathless, knowing how they're feeling and what they're facing. So exciting to see what we're capable of when we work together in common purpose, deciding to push back the edges of our collective ignorance. Have a great voyage, crew of @NASAArtemis!

@JeffMarek Or the old Micheal Keaton line, “Why have any?”

9 SOG by the Rangers to finish the game. The old Sam Kinison line - 'If you're going to miss Heaven, why miss it by two inches?"

The Rangers have 4 SOG against the Sens with 4 mins left in the second. I'm new to hockey, is that bad?

🚨BREAKING!🚨 Yesterday, when challenged on the reality that a judge has already determined that the separatists question is unconstitutional... Smith announced if they get the signatures she'll have Amery rewrite it to make it constitutional! #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

@JSJamato I'm very concerned about my property value. If somehow the separatists win, I expect to leave so I can capitalize on whatever equity I have in my home.

Carney, Kenney, Lukaszuk & Nenshi all doing well on separatism issue, Angus Reid finds. Premier Smith is losing popularity. Poll also finds 77% of Albertans want to leave if province separates. Imagine our land values… #ableg #cdnpoli

@LeavinsKur82978 @edmontonjournal But haven't the Oilers had a tendency to not start on time for years, not just this one?

My latest, at The Cult of Hockey - The Edmonton Oilers may be missing some of the requisite rocket fuel needed to start on time: 9 Things edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/… via @edmontonjournal

Very good post from Sharon Hayes...Worth your time. Most Alberta separation arguments fail before they even get to equalization. They start with the assumption that Alberta “sends money away” and would magically fix its problems if that stopped. That assumption misunderstands how federal taxes, equalization, and risk-sharing actually work. From there, the entire argument collapses. The pitch is simple and emotionally effective: “Alberta pays billions in equalization and gets nothing back. We’d be better off on our own.” That story only works if you isolate one program, blur how it actually functions, and quietly imply things that are not true. Yes, Alberta pays more to the federal government than it gets back in equalization. That part is true. What’s misleading is treating that fact as evidence of extraction. Here’s what equalization actually is. Equalization is a federal program, paid out of general federal revenues. It is not a direct transfer from Alberta to Quebec. Alberta does not write an equalization cheque. There is no line item where “Alberta’s money” is sent east. The federal government collects revenues nationally through: - Personal income taxes - Corporate taxes - GST and excise taxes - Other federal revenues Those revenues go into a single federal pool. Equalization payments are then calculated based on fiscal capacity, meaning a province’s ability to raise revenue at average tax rates. If a province has lower capacity, the federal government tops it up so it can provide reasonably comparable public services. If a province has higher capacity, it does not qualify. That’s it. Equalization is not: - A refund program - A reward or punishment - A moral judgment - A transfer from Alberta taxpayers to Quebec taxpayers Alberta doesn’t qualify because its fiscal capacity is higher. British Columbia and Saskatchewan also receive zero. That distinction matters, and it is almost always missing from separation rhetoric. Another implication that often sneaks into this conversation is that individual Albertans are personally paying higher federal taxes than people elsewhere. That is also false. Federal income taxes are set nationally. An Albertan and an Ontarian earning the same income pay the same federal income tax. Same brackets. Same rates. Same rules. There is no “Alberta surcharge” in the federal tax code. When Alberta sends more to Ottawa, it is not because Albertans are taxed more harshly. It is because: - Average incomes are higher - Corporate profits are larger in boom years - Employment rates are higher - More people are working and earning taxable income That’s arithmetic, not discrimination. Demographics matter here too. Alberta has a younger population than many provinces. Younger populations mean: - More people in prime working years - Fewer retirees drawing federal benefits - Higher employment-to-population ratios - More income tax collected relative to benefits paid That demographic advantage boosts federal revenues flowing out of Alberta in good years. It also means Alberta draws less from age-related federal programs compared to older provinces. That is not a policy choice made in Ottawa. It is a population-structure reality. More importantly, equalization is one program, not the totality of Alberta’s relationship with Canada. Here’s the part the propaganda skips: Alberta receives billions every year in federal transfers that have nothing to do with equalization. Core transfers alone matter: - The Canada Health Transfer - The Canada Social Transfer Together, these now total roughly $8–9 billion per year flowing to Alberta, rising over time. These funds support healthcare, post-secondary education, childcare, and social services. They do not disappear just because Alberta does not receive equalization. Then there is stabilization: Alberta is a high-income, high-volatility province tied to global oil prices. In boom years, Alberta sends more to Ottawa. In bust years, the federal government acts as a shock absorber. That is not redistribution. That is insurance. We have seen this repeatedly. In 2014–2016, oil prices collapsed from over $100 USD to under $30. Alberta lost more than 100,000 jobs. Provincial revenues cratered. Federal EI payments surged. Household incomes were stabilized by federal programs while Alberta absorbed the shock. In 2020, oil prices briefly crashed at the same time COVID shut down large parts of the economy. Alberta still received $6.6B in core federal transfers that year, rising to $8.2B by 2024–25, with $9.2B projected. That is before counting pandemic programs. Canada also has a Fiscal Stabilization Program specifically designed for sharp provincial revenue collapses. Alberta received hundreds of millions through this mechanism when oil revenues imploded. Alberta’s volatility is not ignored by the federation. It is explicitly planned for. Now let’s talk COVID support, because this is where the “we get nothing back” claim really breaks. Alberta received less CERB per capita than many provinces, although not dramatically so. Not because Ottawa singled it out, but because Alberta has higher wages and more EI-eligible workers. CERB flowed mainly to low-wage, service, tourism, gig, and seasonal work. Alberta has less of that. Meanwhile, the real money was flowing elsewhere. Through the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, Alberta businesses received roughly $14–15B, scaled to payroll size and wage levels. Add CEBA loans, liquidity programs, and sector supports, and Finance Canada estimates Alberta saw a net increase of roughly $10.9B in federal inflows in 2020 compared to 2019. That matters when people cite figures like “$244B sent to Ottawa.” Those numbers measure net contribution in good years, not what Alberta avoided losing in bad ones. Net contributor status is not proof of extraction. It is the arithmetic result of higher incomes during booms, paired with federal insurance during busts. Now add the piece that separation rhetoric almost never confronts: If Alberta were truly being starved of its own money, its provincial systems would reflect that. They don’t. They reflect provincial policy choices, even while federal money continues to flow. Alberta’s health system has experienced repeated emergency department disruptions and closures, even as it receives billions annually through the Canada Health Transfer. The province is currently restructuring its entire healthcare system because the existing model is not functioning as intended. Alberta’s education system has faced rapid enrollment growth, larger class sizes, and rising classroom complexity, culminating in a historic province-wide teachers’ strike. This is happening while federal social transfers continue to flow and while Alberta remains one of the wealthiest provinces in the country. And Alberta is actively restructuring disability supports, reducing benefit levels under a new program while instructing recipients to apply for the federal Canada Disability Benefit, then clawing that federal money back. That is not Ottawa starving Alberta. That is Alberta choosing how to allocate support. The claim that Alberta would thrive if it simply “stopped sending money away” collapses when you look at outcomes. Equalization is not draining Alberta’s budget. Federal money is already flowing in. The state of healthcare, education, and disability services reflects provincial governance decisions, not federal confiscation. Now add the piece that is almost always left out entirely: oil industry support and cleanup costs. In 2020, the federal government committed $1.7 billion to clean up orphan and inactive oil and gas wells in Western Canada, with Alberta receiving the largest share, including: - Over $1 billion to the Alberta government - A $200 million loan to the Orphan Well Association This is direct federal spending inside Alberta to deal with oil industry liabilities. On top of that, the federal government provides ongoing oil and gas subsidies, tax preferences, public financing, carbon capture incentives, and transition funding. A disproportionate share of this support flows to oil-producing provinces, primarily Alberta. These are not symbolic amounts. They are material assumptions of environmental and financial risk by the federal government. Now we have to talk honestly about Alberta’s dependence on oil prices, because this is where the independence fantasy quietly breaks. “Oil is profitable” is not the same thing as “Alberta is fiscally stable.” Alberta produces several types of oil, each with different economics. For conventional light and medium oil, operating break-even costs are roughly $35–$50 USD per barrel. These wells can remain viable at relatively low prices, but they represent a shrinking share of production and no longer drive provincial revenues the way oil sands do. For oil sands mining projects, operating costs once built can fall into the $30–$40 USD range. But when you include capital costs, financing, and long-term investment recovery, full-cycle break-even prices rise to roughly $60–$80 USD per barrel. For in-situ oil sands (SAGD), operating break-even typically sits around $35–$45 USD, while full-cycle economics usually require $50–$65 USD oil. Oil sands projects can keep pumping at lower prices once built, but new investment, expansion, royalties, and public revenues depend on much higher sustained prices. For Alberta as a province, fiscal stability historically requires oil prices in the range of $75–$85 USD per barrel. Below that, royalty revenues fall sharply even if companies remain profitable. At $50–$60 USD, Alberta’s public finances deteriorate quickly. At $40–$50 USD, deficits become structural. In other words: - Oil companies can survive at $40 - Alberta’s public finances cannot And volatility is the real problem. Oil prices are shaped by OPEC decisions, wars, global demand cycles, financial speculation, and technological shifts. Alberta does not control these forces. This leads to one unavoidable conclusion that rarely gets stated plainly: Alberta is a price taker, not a price maker. Alberta does not set global oil prices. It reacts to them. Prices are influenced by: - OPEC and OPEC+ production decisions - U.S. shale output and U.S. domestic political priorities - Global demand from China, India, and Europe - Wars, sanctions, and shipping disruptions Even the United States, the world’s largest producer, cannot fully control prices. Alberta, as a single producer within a global market, has even less influence. That means Alberta’s fiscal health is structurally tied to decisions made outside the province, often for reasons that have nothing to do with Alberta’s needs. Independence does not change that reality. It intensifies it. Without federal risk-sharing: - Volatility becomes fiscal crisis - Downturns become deeper and longer - Public services become harder to sustain Oil doesn’t just fund Alberta. Oil destabilizes Alberta. Being part of a federation cushions that instability. Independence would magnify it. Much of the anger wrapped around equalization isn’t really about equalization at all. It’s about control over resources, regulatory friction, pipelines, and a feeling that decisions affecting Alberta are made elsewhere. Those are legitimate political debates. But laundering those grievances through a misleading story about equalization distorts the problem and leads to bad conclusions. Now ask the question separation advocates avoid. What does an independent Alberta look like in the next oil crash? No federal EI backstop. No wage subsidies. No national borrowing power. No stabilization program. No shared cleanup funding. No national balance sheet absorbing risk. An independent Alberta wouldn’t just “keep more money.” It would have to build its own EI system, its own stabilization fund large enough to absorb oil crashes, its own borrowing credibility, and fully assume oil cleanup liabilities alone. Comparisons to Norway ignore the fact that Norway built its sovereign wealth fund before separating risk, runs massive trade surpluses, and taxes oil aggressively at the national level. Alberta has not done that at scale. That doesn’t mean Alberta couldn’t survive. It means the recessions would be deeper, the swings harsher, and the fiscal promises harder to keep. You can argue for reform. You can argue for more autonomy. But if the case for separation collapses once you explain equalization, federal transfers, stabilization, demographics, oil-sector risk sharing, oil-price dependence, price-taking reality, and the actual state of Alberta’s public systems, then equalization was never the real issue. Sharon Hayes Footnote: None of this even touches the legal and political reality that separation would require renegotiating Indigenous treaties, navigating constitutional law, and securing broad democratic legitimacy.

@rascalgas Australia. Lived and worked there for a year. Beautiful country.

Hypothetically, if political tensions ran so high in North America that it felt unsafe, where would you move to?

@staceybrotzel Who?

Look what flew into our backyard. Intimidating creature. But what a treat. Hope he is ok.

@ryanjespersen Yep

Will you consider a Chinese EV next time you buy a car? #cdnpoli

Just a month into Australia’s social media ban, the results are in: Australia is taking real steps in protecting their kids from the harms of TikTok, Snapchat, and Instagram. France, Spain, Denmark, and others are taking the necessary steps to protect their kids. Meanwhile in America, parents are left all alone to battle Big Tech by themselves, one child at a time. Everywhere I go I hear the same anger and angst. Parents want help in protecting their kids from the addiction that big tech peddles. It’s time for the U.S. to act and ban social media apps for kids 16 and younger. Our parents can’t wait any longer. nytimes.com/2026/01/15/wor…

@ryanjespersen @SPhillipsAB Steven Marche’s book “The Next Civil War” is an interesting read. In it he presents 5 scenarios (such as the closure of a bridge in rural America) that eventually lead to the collapse of the nation, given its ever widening division.

It feels like the tragedy in Minneapolis is just the beginning of where the US is headed…and that’s terrifying. An especially good point from @SPhillipsAB (below) re: the impact of it all on Canada. Do you agree with her?

@CityNewsYEG Or allegedly tried to drive away from a group of masked men with guns.

A federal officer shot and killed a Minneapolis motorist when she allegedly tried to run over law enforcement officers during an immigration crackdown in the city, authorities said Wednesday. edmonton.citynews.ca/2026/01/07/ice…

@demetriosnAB …pending budget approval

Our government is focused on rebuilding trust with teachers and we will work with them to achieve our shared goals. #abed

@demetriosnAB Will this committee restore the Charter rights this gov't took away from teachers now that you're finally realizing the very thing they have been emphasizing for years?

Alberta classrooms are more complex than ever been before. Our government is working to address these changes, that is why we have introduced the Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee. #abed

@SportsnetSpec Both, at best, non-factors

At Oilers practice today, looks like Ingram gets the start v. NSH tmw. And it appears both Mangiapane AND Frederic are setting up as healthy scratches.

@dantencer @nielsonTSN1260 Didn’t MacT have a line about some players being, at best, non factors?

@nielsonTSN1260 There are probably 12 guys on the active roster who have given very little argument to play on a nightly basis. That’s just way too hard to work with. Not sure how that large a number gets overcome, but I hope it does somehow.

Three Quick Thoughts 1. Disorganized from the start, felt like early season Oilers for first time in a long time. 2. Kid Line grade INC, not enough of a viewing. 3. Slow start post Christmas, are we surprised? What you got?

@ABDanielleSmith ...pending budget approval.

As 2026 begins, Albertans have an opportunity to reflect on the year that has passed and to look ahead with optimism and resolve. 2025 was a year that tested resilience at home and abroad. Despite global economic uncertainty and external pressures, Albertans continued to show determination, ingenuity and pride in our province. Together, we focused on protecting Alberta’s autonomy, strengthening the economy, and creating the conditions for families, workers and businesses to succeed.   In the new year, we will continue to put Alberta first, seize new opportunities, build strong communities and stay focused on what matters to Albertans.   May 2026 be a year of health, hope and prosperity for Alberta families. I wish all Albertans a happy and successful New Year.

@demetriosnAB strong and free...budget permitting

As MLA for Calgary-Bow I will always serve you with integrity and stay focused on keeping Alberta strong and free.