lightconefiller

@tenobrus relevant reading - 20% is plausible even with bottlenecks etc. He estimates ~4 years for first doubling as production ramps up (mostly due to energy constraints) and <1 yr doubling times plausible, and this is without any new tech beyond agi defensesindepth.bio/ai-industrial-…

spitballing: median US household net worth is $192k. median spending is $75k. at consistent 20% real SPY growth (around 4 year doubling) you plausibly have a safe withdrawal rate of 12-14% instead of 4%. that means you only need ~$500-600k to support your spending. and it only takes 5-6 years of growth (not even any new savings) to get there. so... if ai-driven economic growth is explosive enough / really transitions to a new regime as capital can be transmuted into labor on demand, there's actually a pretty wide margin for a huge fraction of normal americans to retire comfortably and quickly. and plausibly that transition period has enough demand for physical labor / dataset collection / datacenter buildout that income isn't impossible to come by + people below median have time to build up capital this rests on historically truly insane sustained economic growth assumptions, but given what we're talking about is a total restructuring of the limiting factors of growth and that's what's causing the risk of unemployment in the first place, that doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility. generally it would mean "UBI" is significantly less necessary and jobs programs / worry about employment structure is significantly less necessary. meaning crisis might still be on, questions about inequality and what the hell the economy looks like are still there, but plausibly we're actually starting from baselines where very large fractions of humans become post-economic very quickly rather than "top 1%". figuring out safety nets for the bottom 30% of america is a much much smaller problem, we pretty much already have those in place. this is all very fuzzy, pretty sure the NW figure includes home equity and it's very unclear how real estate will be affected, inflation will be super strange w different goods and services probably dramatically varying in value (eg without medtech robots maybe like nearly all diagnostic and prescriptive care is almost free and huge swaths of disease are cured or preventable w cheap new drugs, but surgeries are 10x *more* expensive ?), 20% sustained is both historically very high and obviously sort of ridiculously low in closer to takeoff scenarios so the variance is likely insane, etc etc. not really meant as a prediction. mainly i'm just noticing: safe withdrawal rates go up significantly if returns structurally + permanently go up, so you need *less capital*. and most of the job loss we discuss is pretty much predicated on returns going up. to the degree returns go up less or more slowly... probably job loss also goes up less or more slowly. so maybe that all leaves us in a better default position that it currently seems?

@creatine_cycle 7. member of technical staff

stages of SF dating: 1. ambiguous coffee chat 2. ambiguous dinner 3. ambiguous coworking session 4. adding them as a +1 to partifuls 5. posting pics on x dot com 6. marriage

@CyberSecAJ @adastroworld @specialkdelslay literally addressed in the screenshot above

@adastroworld @specialkdelslay Listen bro its not the capex cost its the opex of running these long term when energy is so expensive

Get an a/c europoors this is what they call a solved problem The solution is get an a/c then people won't die. it's literally that easy

@BenShindel @tenobrus Why not? It seems to me that even if you can't bridge the sim2real gap, economic growth + robotics could lead to massive parallel testing of APM techniques. Seems even more plausible if you can do a bottom-up approach with biotech since the incentive is already there.

@lightconefiller @tenobrus I would bet that we do not get Drexlerian MNT even with an AI takeoff

wait what the fuck how real is this?? naively looks like incremental but serious progress towards nanotech?

@BenShindel @tenobrus the good news is that we're about to have 1000 years worth of progress happen in 10

@tenobrus looks interesting but at this rate of progress we'll get APF of something interesting in, idk, the year 3000

@wolfefriend @tenobrus lk99 was an actual nothingburger, this is real (but incremental) progress

@tenobrus please god snowball into another lk99

@deanwball I think people are just relatively uninformed. We saw an unexpected amount of excitement from non-spaceflight fans with Artemis 2. Once people actually land on the moon again I expect a lot of fanfare. (Especially true when one of the A2 astronauts lands - they're famous now!)

I feel like people are somewhat less excited than I’d have guessed about the fact that we are trying to colonize the Moon and it seems like there’s a decent chance it’s gonna work

@EgonSchiele100 @Duderichy it could have been any dog

@Duderichy allegedly

what

when they say we're never going back to the moon so you gotta hit em with that Artemis stare

@basedjensen his reply guys are calling teo a normie lmfao

Waking up to teo x big e fight on the timeline

@AndrewCurran_ what

Former Attorney General Pam Bondi has been appointed to the Presidential Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and will be coordinating between the US government and the AI labs, she will also be advising on infrastructure. Reporting by Axios.

@Truthful_ast Those people are being retarded about their own preferences. They cared because it was people going to the moon and they're going to care again when people go to the moon again.

@lightconefiller Bro I saw dozens of posts with 40k-60k+ likes saying they only care for stuff like Artemis II and nothing beyond lmao

The world isn’t ready for the Artemis era

@Truthful_ast no they won't. why would you think this

(the ones sooooo hyped about Artemis II will likely stay quiet about a moonbase)

@viemccoy what should one do now with the belief that this isn't priced in?

Within the century it will be just as easy to prompt this car into physical existence as it is to create an image of it. People are not prepared for prompt -> manufactured product. None of this is priced in

@adcock_brett @jh4tAI “Humanoid robots are the best form factor to get automation scaled up”

@henloitsjoyce @creatine_cycle why not

@creatine_cycle hmm maybe not the best post to be making king

BREAKING NEWS: Allah joins OpenAI as member of technical staff

OpenAI needs to quickly found a religion before all the slots are full

@orthonormalist congrats!

ב"ה! After a suspenseful evening, the first second-born son in my patriline since the turn of the last century graced us with his presence just before noon today. He brought with him an auspicious sign marking the evening's challenge: a true knot tied with his umbilical cord.

@flowersslop @dwarkesh_sp The point being the era where it is *shocking* This is already true in some cases. I would be shocked if a human beat stockfish at chess, but we are already well past the era where this is possible.

@dwarkesh_sp but that happens every day from the most trivial to the most complex things?

Currently it is shocking and newsworthy when AIs solve an important open problem that humans couldn't Before AI totally surpass us intellectually, there will be an interesting era, where it will be just as shocking (but not impossible) for a human to solve a problem AI couldn't

@JimmysSeafood @ErinIshimoticha @SpaceX GET HER ASS JIMMYS

@ErinIshimoticha @SpaceX Go fuck yourself 🇺🇸

Maybe @SpaceX can ask its engineers not to chant nationalist dogwhistles on the livestream please? 😒