Comparing Lineups With Teams Watchdog

So if you want to train an RAPM model, the optimal regularization parameter is not the one that best predicts RAPM on unseen data but rather something that's more related to Player Impact like unseen game results when combined with the box score.

For the love of god stop putting the Fall guy with Furiosa. Everyone can see it looks like SLOP

The Lakers' lineup of LeBron/AD/Reaves/Russell/Reddish has a better offensive rating (124.2) than ANY team in the NBA! 😲 They also have a worse defensive rating (122.4) than any team in the league.

The Wolves had an offensive rating of 107.5 with Towns and Gobert both on the floor last season. (For context, that was worse offensive efficiency than Charlotte's league-worst mark of 109.4 a season ago.) This season, the Wolves have an offensive rating of 120.0 with Towns and Gobert both on the floor. (For context, Sacramento's league-best offense was 119.7 last season.) Mike Conley when asked what has gone into the offense working better with those two on the floor this season: "It’s about the spacing with the two bigs. I try my best to make sure I put them in the right spots so that KAT has room to play, that Rudy has room to roll. For my job, I have to sacrifice a lot. I can’t go out there and shoot every time on pick-and-roll. I gotta get Rudy a ball, I gotta get KAT a ball, Ant a ball. I’m just trying to keep the flow going. Those guys seem to be going well and happy so I’m doing a pretty good job, I think."

‼ SQ UPSET ‼ 🔺 Actual Score: Nets 96-139 Celtics 🔺 ShotQuality Score: Nets 116-115 Celtics Based on the quality of shots taken: 🔺 Nets win 54% of the time 🔺 Celtics win 46% of the time

BARK other than the fact that this model is clearly overfit, the rubber band effect will often award losers as winners (in gaps caused by hot/cold shooting), since the winning team begins to play significantly worse when they're ahead and vice versa WOOF

There are valid concerns about good defenses swarming Embiid in postseason—but this compares his halfcourt numbers to overall offensive ratings. Kings have best halfcourt offense in history at 105 (NBA average is 98.4) and Jo is destroying that *against double-teams*